{"id":57720,"date":"2020-07-22T15:25:40","date_gmt":"2020-07-22T05:25:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=57720"},"modified":"2020-07-22T18:24:28","modified_gmt":"2020-07-22T08:24:28","slug":"the-world-as-viewed-by-howard-and-beazley","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-world-as-viewed-by-howard-and-beazley\/","title":{"rendered":"The world as viewed by Howard and Beazley"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Two of Australia\u2019s most influential political figures of recent decades have delivered frank views on subjects including the likely state of the world after the Covid-19 pandemic, the possibility of a \u2018hot war\u2019 with China, the need for Australia to be able to defend itself, and the devastating strategic impact climate change could have.<\/p>\n

Over more than 90 minutes, Walkley Award-winning journalist Stan Grant has interviewed former prime minister John Howard and Kim Beazley, governor of Western Australia, ambassador to the US for six years and onetime leader of the Labor Party in opposition.<\/p>\n

This was the first of a series of online interviews with key Australian and international figures that, in the Covid-19 era, has replaced ASPI\u2019s annual conference.<\/p>\n

Howard said the Covid-19 pandemic would have an impact on the world and it had devastated the lives of many millions of people, but he said we should not \u2018go overboard\u2019 with the view that the world would never be the same. \u2018I think the world will be substantially the same\u2019, Howard said. The biggest impact was likely to be how the pandemic affected the governance of individual countries. Some countries had handled it well, he said, and others badly. \u2018I think our own country has handled the pandemic extremely well.\u2019<\/p>\n

Howard did not think the pandemic would change the world balance of power. \u2018We entered the pandemic with the great rivalry between the US and China. That is still the great rivalry.\u2019 Howard said he did not think many of the basics of great-power rivalry would be altered. \u2018We will have learned the value of international cooperation.\u2019 He strongly rejected the view that the world was entering a post-American era.<\/p>\n

On concerns about Taiwan and the South China Sea being potential flash points that would lead to a major conflict, Howard replied: \u2018I don\u2019t think China wants a hot war. Nobody does.\u2019 But it would still not be easy to handle the relationship, he said. \u2018Is it hard? Yes.\u2019<\/p>\n

Beazley held the view that there could be a \u2018hot war on Taiwan\u2019 because that was where the US had drawn a red line.<\/p>\n

And while Howard praised some of Donald Trump\u2019s decisions, he said the US president had not handled the pandemic well and that could have an impact on the November election.<\/p>\n

Howard said Australia had to find a way to balance its trading relationship with a China that was more overtly aggressive in its diplomatic language and its behaviour in the South China Sea. Yes, they are authoritarian but still important to us, he said.<\/p>\n

\u2018But we have to understand that. We don\u2019t want to overreact to it, but equally we don\u2019t want to recoil from it.\u2019 He did not believe Australia was being dragged along by the Americans. As democracies speaking \u2018more or less the same language\u2019, the two nations had many similar interests but Australia had, over decades, made many decisions independently of Washington.<\/p>\n

Howard noted that relations between the US and China as rival powers had been closer in the past and he implied that they could be again. He recalled a speech China\u2019s then president, Jiang Zemin, made in English after the 2001 terrorist attacks in which he reached out to the Americans across a substantial ideological divide.<\/p>\n

Beazley observed that educating thousands of Chinese students had not just benefited Australia\u2019s economy. \u2018We\u2019ve given thousands of Chinese students nation-building skills through our education system\u2019, he said. \u2018We have been of enormous assistance in the growth of China.\u2019<\/p>\n

Howard and Beazley both supported the increase in the military capabilities of the Australian Defence Force as set out in the recent strategic update.<\/p>\n

\u2018Part of being an effective middle power is having a capacity to exhibit power when needed\u2019, Howard said. \u2018You can\u2019t do that without spending money on defence.<\/p>\n

\u2018We\u2019ve got to accept that if we are going to assert ourselves and defend our values, you have to invest in defence.\u2019<\/p>\n

Beazley said the Morrison government\u2019s recent defence decisions were driven by the capabilities in the region. \u2018The budget is a mess, but unless we stick to our defence plan our voice will be diminished\u2019, he said.<\/p>\n

\u2018Intentions can change overnight, but what cannot change overnight is capabilities. And if you do not have the capacity to match capabilities in the region, you\u2019re dead!\u2019<\/p>\n

Beazley said it was not helpful that the US had pulled out of the Paris climate accord. \u2018I completely believe in the science related to all of this.\u2019<\/p>\n

He warned that climate change could bring devastating impacts with substantial strategic implications. Rising sea levels could have a very great impact on China, he said. \u2018Their coastal cities will be under threat. Already their river systems are drying up.\u2019 The great rivers of Southeast and South Asia had their origins in Tibet and already China was damming them heavily. The diversion of the massive Mekong River could have a huge impact on the nations downstream.<\/p>\n

\u2018They can reduce, and probably will over the next 20 years, the flow of the Mekong out through Indo-China to a trickle. If that happens there\u2019s the most extraordinary crisis in Southeast Asia and that certainly will put people on the move.\u2019<\/p>\n

Increased rainfall might also increase agricultural production in northern Australia. \u2018That will certainly be of interest in the region around us when that occurs.\u2019<\/p>\n

It was very likely that China would be hit hard by every aspect of climate change and, as global warming made areas of Alaska, Canada and northern Russia more accessible for agriculture and resource exploitation, China might well look north to territories seized from it in the 19th century. \u2018When that happens, there will be an altogether different conversation between Russia and China\u2019, Beazley said.<\/p>\n

A video of the opening session of ASPI\u2019s Strategic Vision 2020 conference series is available <\/span>here<\/span><\/a> (registration required).<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Two of Australia\u2019s most influential political figures of recent decades have delivered frank views on subjects including the likely state of the world after the Covid-19 pandemic, the possibility of a \u2018hot war\u2019 with China, …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":587,"featured_media":57725,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[17,2795,509,654],"class_list":["post-57720","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australia","tag-defence-strategic-update","tag-john-howard","tag-kim-beazley"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe world as viewed by Howard and Beazley | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-world-as-viewed-by-howard-and-beazley\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The world as viewed by Howard and Beazley | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Two of Australia\u2019s most influential political figures of recent decades have delivered frank views on subjects including the likely state of the world after the Covid-19 pandemic, the possibility of a \u2018hot war\u2019 with China, ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-world-as-viewed-by-howard-and-beazley\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-07-22T05:25:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-07-22T08:24:28+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/GettyImages-1194195748.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"774\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"452\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Brendan Nicholson\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@Jerry Cashman\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Brendan Nicholson\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-world-as-viewed-by-howard-and-beazley\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/GettyImages-1194195748.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/GettyImages-1194195748.jpg\",\"width\":774,\"height\":452,\"caption\":\"Globalized world, the future of digital technology. 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