{"id":58320,"date":"2020-08-17T13:30:37","date_gmt":"2020-08-17T03:30:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=58320"},"modified":"2020-08-17T12:39:11","modified_gmt":"2020-08-17T02:39:11","slug":"kashmir-a-year-of-utter-misery","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/kashmir-a-year-of-utter-misery\/","title":{"rendered":"Kashmir: A year of utter misery"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

On 5 August 2019, Prime Minister Narendra Modi scrapped Article 370 of the Indian constitution, which allowed the state of Jammu and Kashmir to make its own laws, and cancelled Article 35A, which gave the state\u2019s legislature the power to determine who was a permanent resident.<\/p>\n

The Indian government then sent about 40,000 additional troops<\/a> into the territory\u2014already the most militarised zone on earth<\/a>\u2014to deal with the inevitable negative reaction to Modi\u2019s decision. A curfew was imposed, schools and universities were closed, the internet was shut down, thousands of tourists and pilgrims were told to leave, and politicians were put under house arrest.<\/p>\n

Last, but probably most consequential, Jammu and Kashmir was abolished as a state (the only Muslim-majority one in India) and replaced by two union territories, Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh, which are governed directly from Delhi.<\/p>\n

Not surprisingly, this unilateral action by the Modi government was rejected by the majority of Kashmiris and opposed by two of India\u2019s neighbours, Pakistan and China.<\/p>\n

The Modi government claimed that the move was meant to bring peace and development to Jammu and Kashmir. Instead, it has only brought more violence, more misery and more uncertainty, particularly to the seven million Muslims living in the Kashmir Valley. And, because of Covid-19, Kashmir is now effectively under a double lockdown.<\/p>\n

All aspects of society in Kashmir have been severely affected by these measures.<\/p>\n

Undoubtedly, the greatest hardship for Kashmiris over the past year has been the very limited access they\u2019ve had to the internet. While broadband was restored<\/a> intermittently a few months ago after India\u2019s supreme court ruled<\/a> that the internet shutdown violated people\u2019s freedom of speech and expression, mobile users are still limited to 2G networks and internet shutdowns are frequent.<\/p>\n

Having limited internet access has been particularly onerous <\/a>during the Covid-19 lockdown as healthcare workers try to deal with the fallout of the pandemic, and Amnesty International has called<\/a> for services to be fully restored. It has also severely impeded the daily lives of students, traders and journalists.<\/p>\n

The Kashmiri economy, which relies heavily on tourism, has been completely gutted<\/a>. The Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industry projects a loss of about US$6 billion<\/a>. Unemployment has soared to 18%<\/a>, twice the national average; youth unemployment is a staggering 70%.<\/p>\n

Security forces continue to behave appallingly<\/a> and with impunity towards civilians, particularly during raids on homes in search of militants. According to the Jammu and Kashmir High Court Bar Association, nearly 13,000 people are still in detention<\/a> without having been tried.<\/p>\n

Last, but not least, 400,000 domicile certificates were granted<\/a> to non-Kashmiri Indians in May alone, strongly suggesting that the Indian government intends to change the ethnic composition of Kashmir.<\/p>\n

As would be expected, in neighbouring nuclear-armed Pakistan, Prime Minister Imran Khan labelled Modi\u2019s revocation of Article 370 \u2018illegal\u2019<\/a> and warned that it would \u2018destroy regional peace and security\u2019. The Pakistani foreign ministry<\/a> stressed that \u2018Jammu and Kashmir is an internationally recognized disputed territory\u2019 and that \u2018no unilateral step\u2019 by the Indian government could \u2018change this disputed status\u2019.<\/p>\n

On the first anniversary of India\u2019s actions, the Pakistani government unveiled a new political map<\/a> of the country which integrated \u2018Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir\u2019 with the rest of the country for the first time since 1947. Oddly, but not surprisingly, the new map leaves the India\u2013China border and Ladakh undefined. India\u2019s reaction to the new map was immediate and predictable. It denounced the map as \u2018an exercise in political absurdity<\/a>\u2019, stressing that \u2018these ridiculous assertions have neither legal validity nor international credibility\u2019.<\/p>\n

Like Pakistan, China also opposed the change to Jammu and Kashmir\u2019s status because of its own claims on Ladakh. China\u2019s foreign ministry reiterated this position<\/a> last week, stating that \u2018any unilateral change to the status quo in the Kashmir region is illegal and invalid\u2019.<\/p>\n

More importantly, however, Modi\u2019s decision on Jammu and Kashmir was also one of the reasons that China decided<\/a> in May and June to forcefully challenge the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the de facto Sino-Indian border in Ladakh. While the situation has calmed down on the LAC\u2014at least for the moment\u2014China\u2019s actions sent a powerful message to New Delhi: Beijing also has a stake in Kashmir. So now India has two fronts to contend with in that region<\/a>.<\/p>\n

With a few notable exceptions, such as Malaysia<\/a>, Turkey<\/a> and Iran<\/a>, most of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation countries have been reluctant to publicly criticise Modi on developments in Kashmir. India is a potentially massive market for the OIC, and no country is interested in jeopardising rich commercial ties. This reluctance to publicly support the Kashmiris\u2019 plight has caused friction between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia<\/a>, a country with which Islamabad has deep historical, religious, military and commercial ties.<\/p>\n

European leaders, including Germany\u2019s Angela Merkel<\/a>, the UK\u2019s Boris Johnson<\/a> and France\u2019s Emmanuel Macron<\/a>, were initially slightly more forthcoming with their criticism of Modi, but not much has been heard from them since.<\/p>\n

As for the other three members of the \u2018Quad\u2019\u2014the US, Japan and Australia\u2014their public silence on the Kashmir issue has been deafening. They don\u2019t want to unnecessarily upset a critical\u2014and at times wobbly\u2014member of the quadrilateral security grouping. And after the recent clashes between India and China in Ladakh, there\u2019s no appetite to ruffle Modi\u2019s feathers on this issue.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s clear that the dreadful situation in Kashmir cannot continue indefinitely\u2014nor should it, in the world\u2019s largest democracy. Eventually, the Indian government will need to negotiate with Kashmiris and find a peaceful way forward.<\/p>\n

But Modi is absolutely in no mood to do that right now. He has a majority in both legislative chambers and he\u2019s liked by most Indians. Except for the scathing criticism from the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights<\/a>, there is virtually no external pressure on the Indian government to change its ways.<\/p>\n

Kashmiris will continue to suffer for some time yet.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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