{"id":58444,"date":"2020-08-21T11:00:09","date_gmt":"2020-08-21T01:00:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=58444"},"modified":"2020-08-21T10:47:25","modified_gmt":"2020-08-21T00:47:25","slug":"europes-last-dictator-makes-his-last-stand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/europes-last-dictator-makes-his-last-stand\/","title":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s last dictator makes his last stand"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Has this week of massive, mostly peaceful protests against Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko been merely the calm before the storm? Following the fraudulent presidential election on 9 August, Lukashenko\u2019s latest statements<\/a> about the expanding protest movement sound ominous: \u2018There must be no more unrest in Minsk. The people are tired. They want peace and quiet. \u2026 The majority are used to living in a quiet country. We have to return this calm country to them.\u2019 The fear now is that these unfounded claims will be used to justify martial law.<\/p>\n

Lukashenko has also addressed the growing opposition from workers. \u2018If someone in the media\u2014ONT, BT, or elsewhere\u2014wants to go on strike, to go out and then come back, he should not be given that opportunity\u2019, Lukashenko declared<\/a>. \u2018If you want to leave, leave. But the teams must be preserved. And that is our task today.\u2019 The implication is that, beyond martial law, a great purge of state media and other sectors is coming. All those who have not demonstrated that they are loyal to Lukashenko have been put on notice.<\/p>\n

In addition to appearing at two major factories, where the workers told<\/a> him to \u2018Get lost\u2019, Lukashenko this week convened his national security committee, which has been tasked with uncovering the supposedly nefarious financing behind the protest movement. It doesn\u2019t matter \u2018how difficult it is\u2019, he told them, it must be done. Lukashenko has already been suggesting that the demonstrations are some kind of NATO\u2013Polish\u2013Baltic plot, and such conspiracy theories are likely soon to take on a life of their own.<\/p>\n

After a week of mostly peaceful protests, the OMON (riot police) have returned to the streets in full force, with the aim of intimidating striking workers and separating them from the other demonstrators\u2014the familiar strategy of divide and rule.<\/p>\n

One way to sow division within the opposition is to tar its leaders as fascists or Western puppets. We can expect to see Lukashenko\u2019s lackeys donning the \u2018anti-Nazi\u2019 St George\u2019s ribbon in the coming days. The same tactic, after all, was used in Ukraine during the 2014 Maidan revolution, when Viktor Yanukovych\u2019s regime tried to brand the opposition as fascists even as it unleashed masked thugs to fire on and beat peaceful protesters. The charge of fascism made little sense there, and it makes even less sense now in Belarus.<\/p>\n

Striking workers in Belarus enjoy widespread support. They have been encouraged by opposition protesters who gather in front of their factories and tell them about a \u2018solidarity fund\u2019 to compensate them for lost earnings. In recent days, I\u2019ve witnessed OMON thugs targeting these protesters near the Minsk Wheeled Tractor Plant (MZKT), admonishing them, \u2018Don\u2019t interfere with work.\u2019 The police also have cordoned off the offices of Belarusian state television, so that its staff can no longer join the demonstrations.<\/p>\n

But most ominous are the (unconfirmed) rumors that Russia is deploying reinforcements to replace OMON members and media employees who have objected to the Lukashenko regime\u2019s crackdown on protesters. One heard similar warnings whispered during Ukraine\u2019s 2004\u201305 Orange Revolution. At the time, they were denounced as a hoax\u2014what would now be called \u2018fake news\u2019\u2014but after the revolution succeeded, the presence of Russians on the ground was confirmed.<\/p>\n

In any case, the Lukashenko regime\u2019s effort to separate the demonstrators (mainly young people with white, red and white flags) from the striking workers is now fully underway across Minsk. Workers are being threatened with dismissal and other punishments, and beatings similar to those meted out to protesters in the days just after the election could be next on the list.<\/p>\n

The regime is ratcheting up the pressure on journalists, too, with reports<\/a> of more beatings and detentions coming to light. Foreign correspondents are not allowed to enter Belarus without the regime\u2019s explicit approval; those who try are searched and turned away at the airport.<\/p>\n

At least three people have died as a result of state violence in response to the protests since the election. The latest victim is Gennady Shutov, a 43-year-old man from Brest who was shot in the head<\/a> by police on 11 August and died in hospital on 19 August.<\/p>\n

It was always a near certainty that after 26 years in power, Lukashenko wouldn\u2019t give up the presidency before unleashing the full force of the security apparatus. But doing so now will lead only to more unnecessary injuries and deaths. Following through with a declaration of martial law and unchecked state violence would test the security forces\u2019 loyalty like never before. If Lukashenko, having rejected dialogue with opposition leaders, loses that test, he will have nothing left.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Has this week of massive, mostly peaceful protests against Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko been merely the calm before the storm? Following the fraudulent presidential election on 9 August, Lukashenko\u2019s latest statements about the expanding protest …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":646,"featured_media":58448,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[295,817,1803],"class_list":["post-58444","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-belarus","tag-martial-law","tag-police"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEurope\u2019s last dictator makes his last stand | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/europes-last-dictator-makes-his-last-stand\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Europe\u2019s last dictator makes his last stand | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Has this week of massive, mostly peaceful protests against Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko been merely the calm before the storm? 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