{"id":58485,"date":"2020-08-24T06:00:47","date_gmt":"2020-08-23T20:00:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=58485"},"modified":"2020-08-23T16:20:32","modified_gmt":"2020-08-23T06:20:32","slug":"the-strange-submarine-saga-the-industry-policy-puzzles","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-strange-submarine-saga-the-industry-policy-puzzles\/","title":{"rendered":"The strange submarine saga: the industry policy puzzles"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Australia has spent 40 years building its own submarines.<\/p>\n

For subs (and ships) we do defence as industry policy. Build our own naval muscle and build our economy. Protect sovereignty and protect jobs. The capability must have Australian content.<\/p>\n

Today\u2019s vogue phrase is \u2018sovereign industrial capability\u2019, a concept hammered at with more than 30 references in the 2020 defence strategic update<\/a> and force structure plan<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Covid-19 pandemic has given new meaning to the defence discussion of the need for a robust and resilient industrial base.<\/p>\n

We don\u2019t necessarily have sovereign industrial capability in priority areas, but we\u2019re sure planning to get it\u2014or regain what we\u2019ve lost. Australia now proclaims the need to \u2018have access to, or control over the skills, technology, intellectual property, financial resources or infrastructure that underpin the Priorities [for industrial capabilities]\u2019.<\/p>\n

So, after 40 years on the subs journey\u2014and much longer on the ships\u2014we\u2019re still struggling for the sweet spot where defence need and industry policy unite.<\/p>\n

The struggle makes for passionate politics, proving that in the phrase \u2018political consensus\u2019 keep your eye on the politics. Because the submarines are vital yet vexed, the subs consensus is a hull undergoing repeated pressure tests.<\/p>\n

In the struggle over building the new Attack-class submarines in Australia or overseas (Customer Oz versus Industry Oz<\/a>) the industry side finally triumphed. It was, though, a close-run<\/a> thing.<\/p>\n

Malcolm Turnbull took industry policy to a rich new place with the largest ever peacetime defence industry investment program<\/a>. In his memoir<\/a>, the former prime minister argues the case for an Australian-built submarine:<\/p>\n

Certainly, a foreign yard with current experience in building submarines will build faster and at less cost than an Australian yard would build the first one\u2014but stress \u2018the first one\u2019. We\u2019ll never have a sustainable continuous shipbuilding industry unless we start building ships and do so continuously. And if we want, over the decades to come, to develop an Australian advanced manufacturing sector, there is no industry more likely to provide the \u2018pull-through\u2019 stimulus than defence, and no project more at the cutting edge than submarines\u2014the most complex, sophisticated and lethal vessels in the fleet.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Turnbull\u2019s minister for defence industry and then defence minister, Christopher Pyne<\/a>, says the vision is \u2018to remake our strategic industrial base through the Australian defence industry\u2019.<\/p>\n

Because it\u2019s about defence <\/em>industry\u2014not just industry\u2014a Liberal government adopted what Pyne calls \u2018an uncharacteristically European dirigiste<\/em> demonstration of government intervention in the market\u2019.<\/p>\n

Pyne says the continuous shipbuilding program of the naval shipbuilding plan<\/a> is the most detailed long-term guide for defence industry in Australia\u2019s history: \u2018A drumbeat of new vessels at least every two years for decades is something Australia has never enjoyed before.\u2019<\/p>\n

The new force structure plan calls for the acquisition or upgrade of up to 23 classes of navy and army maritime vessels. Cost: $168\u2013$183 billion. Schedule: Out to the completion of the Attack subs in the 2050s.<\/p>\n

The Turnbull government dived into the defence industry task with what Pyne describes as a combination of the PM\u2019s \u2018enthusiasm and my overconfidence\u2019. Pyne\u2019s jest is more revealing than he intends on the shambles<\/a> of making up industry policy as you go along and on the run.<\/p>\n

The submarine saga is strewn with missed options and strange turns: Labor\u2019s lost six years, the death of the car industry, Tony Abbott\u2019s dash for a Japanese-made sub.<\/p>\n

The Rudd and Gillard governments proclaimed the need for 12 new submarines but didn\u2019t get going. Those were the new-subs-stasis years. Labor\u2019s focus was on fixing the Collins class and fixing the budget.<\/p>\n

Labor, ultimately, left the sub choice to the Abbott government. Governments can\u2019t bind future governments, but they can make big decisions that define the landscape and set the tide. Because of its new-subs stasis, Labor made no such decision.<\/p>\n

Abbott wanted to build the frigates and offshore patrol vessels in Australia but buy the subs from Japan. Abbott\u2019s government was willing to do some defence industry policy (yes to ships, no to subs) but baulked at industry policy: keeping the Oz car industry was dismissed as dire, dismal demi-dirigisme.<\/p>\n

The Abbott government centralised shipbuilding in two cities, Adelaide and Perth (sorry, Melbourne), but would do nothing more for our last two car manufacturers.<\/p>\n

A few mad moments of macho mocking from Canberra did much to hasten the departure of Holden<\/a> and Toyota. In today\u2019s sovereign capability era, Canberra would be hugging the final two carmakers, not hissing them out the door.<\/p>\n

In the hierarchy-of-needs chart for defence industry, submarines and planes sit near the top of the triangle, supported by a broad array of complex manufacturing abilities (science and skills, investment and research). Losing cars from the hierarchy kicked out much that an advanced industrial economy needs to make its own ships and subs.<\/p>\n

Australia will pump hundreds of billions into building and sustaining sovereign industrial capacity for defence, but in 2014 we wouldn\u2019t stump up $150\u2013$250 million to keep car manufacturers till 2022. Instead, an industrial extinction event.<\/a><\/p>\n

A lot of jobs gone. A lot of capability lost.<\/p>\n

The decisive \u2018Yes\u2019 of today\u2019s defence industry policy contrasts with the derisive \u2018No\u2019 to industry policy just a few years back.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Australia has spent 40 years building its own submarines. For subs (and ships) we do defence as industry policy. Build our own naval muscle and build our economy. Protect sovereignty and protect jobs. The capability …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":58488,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2436,126,223],"class_list":["post-58485","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-attack-class","tag-defence-industry","tag-submarines"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe strange submarine saga: the industry policy puzzles | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-strange-submarine-saga-the-industry-policy-puzzles\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The strange submarine saga: the industry policy puzzles | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Australia has spent 40 years building its own submarines. 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