{"id":58559,"date":"2020-08-26T11:29:15","date_gmt":"2020-08-26T01:29:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=58559"},"modified":"2020-08-26T11:29:15","modified_gmt":"2020-08-26T01:29:15","slug":"ardern-and-biden-victories-would-be-a-shot-in-the-arm-for-the-centre-left","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/ardern-and-biden-victories-would-be-a-shot-in-the-arm-for-the-centre-left\/","title":{"rendered":"Ardern and Biden victories would be a shot in the arm for the centre-left"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

An emphatic Labour Party victory in New Zealand in October, followed by a convincing Democratic Party win in the United States in November, would be a symbolic morale boost for the \u2018Anglosphere\u2019 centre-left after a period marked by fallouts from Brexit, the 2016 Donald Trump upset and the 2019 Scott Morrison and Boris Johnson triumphs.<\/p>\n

Centre-left parties in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the US have long followed ideological, policy and campaign developments affecting their counterparts. Increased global connectivity has intensified this reciprocal scrutiny. It has been the same on the centre-right.<\/p>\n

In the 1980s and early 1990s, UK Labour figures like Tony Blair looked to the Bob Hawke Labor government for inspiration as it split between its hard-left and social-democratic tendencies during Margaret Thatcher\u2019s decade of dominance. UK Labour\u2019s 1983 manifesto, which pledged unilateral nuclear disarmament (while maintaining support for NATO), was described by one of its MPs as \u2018the longest suicide note in history\u2019.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the Hawke government maintained Australian support for the US alliance, obtained \u2018full knowledge and concurrence\u2019 for the Pine Gap facility, and even managed to walk away from a commitment to use Australian facilities to test MX missiles (with a little help from Hawke\u2019s Republican mate George Schultz).<\/p>\n

Across the Tasman, the David Lange government\u2019s \u2018nuclear-free\u2019 policy, strongly supported by the NZ Labour left, precipitated the US\u2019s suspension of its ANZUS commitments to New Zealand in 1986, but with no major long-term repercussions: New Zealand has remained a member of the Five Eyes intelligence network and continues to participate in joint military exercises with the US and Australia. The Hawke government resisted pressure from the left to adopt a similar nuclear policy.<\/p>\n

By the late 1990s, the ALP right was looking to Blair\u2019s \u2018third way\u2019 and the Clinton administration\u2019s \u2018triangulation\u2019 strategy for lessons on how to peel the \u2018Howard battlers\u2019 from the Coalition. That effort was complicated when Blair committed the UK to the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, putting him at odds with the ALP. The tension was politely on display when Blair visited Australia in 2006; his old friend Kim Beazley was opposition leader. (One of the big \u2018what ifs\u2019 is whether the Trump administration would have reduced intelligence sharing with the UK if Jeremy Corbyn had won last year\u2019s election and what impact that might have had on Australia.)<\/p>\n

But what would a Jacinda Ardern, Joe Biden double mean in practical terms for Australia\u2019s national interest and the centre-right Morrison government? As with Richard Nixon\u2019s 1960s period in the political wilderness, Biden\u2019s views on China have presumably evolved as the strategic outlook has changed. In his July 2016 speech in Sydney, Biden remarked:<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve made important progress to center our growing relationship with China in enhanced cooperation and responsible competition \u2026 I\u2019ve spent a great deal of time with President Xi, a lot of time. I\u2019ve travelled with him five days in China.\u00a0I\u2019ve probably spent more time with him alone than any world leader.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Four years later, much has changed.<\/p>\n

If Biden wins, expect a form of \u2018triangulation\u2019 on the global stage. While he would put greater emphasis than Trump has on not offending allies and courting \u2018respectable opinion\u2019, there would be more continuity than change. The full-court pushback against China would continue, Five Eyes coordination would keep broadening beyond its traditional remit, and the US military presence in northern Australia would increase, notably the number of US marines.<\/p>\n

Covid-19 has further slanted the political balance in favour of the US taking a hard line on trade with China, although a big trade deal is more likely than not during the next term under Biden or Trump. As president, Biden would come under pressure from his party\u2019s left to use tariffs and trade agreements as a means of furthering global action on climate change; Biden\u2019s climate package is the most ambitious ever offered by a US presidential candidate. China would test a Biden administration\u2019s mettle early, possibly with Taiwan\u2019s offshore islands (Matsu and Quemoy were issues in the 1960 presidential election debates). This would again put Australia\u2019s ANZUS obligations under the spotlight.<\/p>\n

As for New Zealand, a Biden presidency would give Ardern more domestic political room to increase strategic cooperation with the US. An updated ANZUS is not inconceivable. Ardern\u2019s global standing and domestic political dominance sometimes overshadow the fact that she leads a minority government whose foreign and defence ministers are members of the right-wing New Zealand First Party, which may be headed for electoral oblivion if the polls are to be believed. Post-election, Ardern will be in a stronger position to put her unique stamp on New Zealand strategic policy. Wily New Zealand diplomats would try to leverage the Biden\u2013Ardern ideological partnership while quietly playing good cop to Canberra\u2019s bad cop with Beijing in pursuing New Zealand\u2019s economic and trade interests.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

An emphatic Labour Party victory in New Zealand in October, followed by a convincing Democratic Party win in the United States in November, would be a symbolic morale boost for the \u2018Anglosphere\u2019 centre-left after a …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1028,"featured_media":58561,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2047,83,73],"class_list":["post-58559","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australia-us-relations","tag-elections","tag-new-zealand"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nArdern and Biden victories would be a shot in the arm for the centre-left | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/ardern-and-biden-victories-would-be-a-shot-in-the-arm-for-the-centre-left\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ardern and Biden victories would be a shot in the arm for the centre-left | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"An emphatic Labour Party victory in New Zealand in October, followed by a convincing Democratic Party win in the United States in November, would be a symbolic morale boost for the \u2018Anglosphere\u2019 centre-left after a ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/ardern-and-biden-victories-would-be-a-shot-in-the-arm-for-the-centre-left\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-08-26T01:29:15+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/GettyImages-1264594567.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"683\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Mick McNeill\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Mick McNeill\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/ardern-and-biden-victories-would-be-a-shot-in-the-arm-for-the-centre-left\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/GettyImages-1264594567.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/GettyImages-1264594567.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":683,\"caption\":\"AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND - AUGUST 08: New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern speaks at the Labour Party 2020 election campaign launch on August 08, 2020 in Auckland, New Zealand. 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