{"id":58697,"date":"2020-08-31T11:00:52","date_gmt":"2020-08-31T01:00:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=58697"},"modified":"2020-08-31T10:35:14","modified_gmt":"2020-08-31T00:35:14","slug":"the-japan-shinzo-abe-leaves-behind","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-japan-shinzo-abe-leaves-behind\/","title":{"rendered":"The Japan Shinzo Abe leaves behind"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Shinzo Abe<\/a>\u2019s sudden resignation on health grounds ends the tenure of Japan\u2019s longest-serving prime minister. The country\u2019s most internationally recognised statesman since 1945, Abe has been, among other things, the world leader most keen on playing golf with US President Donald Trump.<\/p>\n

Though he leaves Japan with a still-weak economy, Abe has made his country stronger and more autonomous in matters of defence and foreign policy. Whoever succeeds him will likely continue on that path, which is good news for proponents of peace in East Asia and of the rules-based international order more generally.<\/p>\n

Abe\u2019s current term was set to end in September next year, but his approval ratings had fallen to historic lows, making another run for the premiership a non-starter. The manner of his departure, after nearly eight continuous years in office, thus reflects an old principle of political life. For a long-serving party leader who knows the end of his political career is nigh, it is better to set the terms of one\u2019s own departure than be pushed out by dagger-wielding rivals.<\/p>\n

Since his youth, Abe has suffered from ulcerative colitis, a debilitating condition that forced him to resign once before, in 2007, after serving one year as prime minister. That previous departure also coincided with serious political difficulties, making his return to power in 2012 all the more remarkable. Given two recent well-publicised hospital visits, Abe\u2019s renewed health problems are likely genuine. And yet, with the Tokyo Olympics having been postponed to next year, it\u2019s hard to believe that he would choose to step down now unless he also felt serious political pressure.<\/p>\n

From an international perspective, Abe\u2019s loss of popularity may seem surprising, given that his country has suffered fewer than 1,300 Covid-19 deaths<\/a> and a smaller economic downturn than in the United States or most European countries. But Abe\u2019s government has drawn criticism for erratic communication and a seemingly uncaring economic response to the pandemic. And, after so many years in office, accumulated scandals and a general weariness with the country\u2019s unchanging leadership have caught up with him.<\/p>\n

Moreover, there has been growing disappointment about the state of the economy and living standards. Abe\u2019s much-touted economic program, known as Abenomics, has consisted of faster monetary expansion, some fiscal stimulus and talk of pro-growth structural reforms. But the results have been meagre, especially from a leader who has won three general elections and long enjoyed strong parliamentary majorities.<\/p>\n

Abenomics was billed as a program to overcome deflation, accelerate economic growth, and\u2014in a second phase\u2014boost Japan\u2019s birth rate. While prices have stopped falling, hopes of restoring mild inflation and wage growth have been dashed. While economic growth<\/a> between 2012 and the current pandemic was slightly better than in the previous decade, that was largely owing to the absence of major shocks on the scale of the 2008 financial crisis or the 2011 earthquake and tsunami. The birth rate<\/a> remains flat.<\/p>\n

To be sure, the Abe government has enacted some small, useful reforms, including a new corporate-governance code, better disclosure rules for companies, higher childcare spending and tighter limits on dangerously long overtime. But plans for deeper reforms to increase competition have either not materialised or been blocked by vested business interests. Nearly 40% of the workforce<\/a> remains on short-term, precarious contracts, and although more women work, very few have broken through to leadership positions.<\/p>\n

Abe has also failed to achieve his greatest ambition of all: revising Japan\u2019s 1947 constitution to normalise the status of the country\u2019s armed forces and remove the document\u2019s famous pacifism clause (Article 9). The Japanese public remains opposed to such a change, and Abe\u2019s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has commanded its strong parliamentary majorities in coalition with the centrist Buddhist group Komeito, which has pacifist roots. Because a constitutional revision requires a two-thirds majority in each house of parliament and a simple majority in a national referendum, Abe has never been able to realise his dream.<\/p>\n

As for his legacy, Abe will be remembered as a traditionalist (in Japanese terms). Within the LDP, he leads a group of \u2018new conservatives\u2019 who advocate a strong state, central leadership, established values and\u2014most of all\u2014a more robust and autonomous foreign and defence policy. On these priorities, he has delivered.<\/p>\n

At times, he has pursued a slavishly close relationship with Trump. But he has also sought to carve out a more autonomous role for Japan on issues like trade. In 2017, he led the effort to salvage the 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership following the Trump administration\u2019s withdrawal from that deal. Japan has also negotiated a free-trade arrangement with the European Union and will shortly complete a parallel deal with the United Kingdom.<\/p>\n

Abe has also strengthened Japan\u2019s defence relationship with India. By emphasising a revisionist view of Japan\u2019s wartime history, however, he has brought relations with South Korea\u2014Japan\u2019s closest neighbour and a fellow US security ally\u2014to a new low following that country\u2019s leftward turn.<\/p>\n

The race among potential successors within the LDP has been covertly underway for several months. But it\u2019s already clear that none of the leading contenders\u2014Defence Minister Taro Kono, former foreign minister Fumio Kishida, Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, nor even Abe\u2019s old rival Shigeru Ishiba\u2014will want to soften the country\u2019s foreign-policy stance. If anything, they may compete to appear even stronger on security issues, advocating more military spending, pre-emptive strike capabilities against North Korean missile threats, or tougher action against Chinese maritime incursions in the East China Sea.<\/p>\n

No Japanese prime minister since the end of the American occupation in 1952 has been able to contemplate seriously any kind of rupture with the US. But, recognising that America has become a less reliable and cooperative ally, especially under Trump, Abe has prepared the ground for Japan to develop a more independent voice as it builds its own network of partners around the world. That strategy is here to stay.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Shinzo Abe\u2019s sudden resignation on health grounds ends the tenure of Japan\u2019s longest-serving prime minister. The country\u2019s most internationally recognised statesman since 1945, Abe has been, among other things, the world leader most keen on …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1199,"featured_media":58704,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[285,56,135,507],"class_list":["post-58697","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-foreign-policy","tag-indo-pacific","tag-japan","tag-shinzo-abe"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Japan Shinzo Abe leaves behind | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-japan-shinzo-abe-leaves-behind\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Japan Shinzo Abe leaves behind | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Shinzo Abe\u2019s sudden resignation on health grounds ends the tenure of Japan\u2019s longest-serving prime minister. The country\u2019s most internationally recognised statesman since 1945, Abe has been, among other things, the world leader most keen on ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-japan-shinzo-abe-leaves-behind\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-08-31T01:00:52+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-08-31T00:35:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/GettyImages-1228235088.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"683\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Bill Emmott\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Bill Emmott\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-japan-shinzo-abe-leaves-behind\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/GettyImages-1228235088.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/GettyImages-1228235088.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":683,\"caption\":\"TOKYO, JAPAN - AUGUST 28: People pass by as Japan's Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, is displayed on a giant television screen during a press conference in which he announced his resignation on August 28, 2020 in Tokyo, Japan. Shinzo Abe, Japan's longest serving post-war prime minister, announced his resignation today amid speculation surrounding his health. (Photo by Carl Court\/Getty Images)\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-japan-shinzo-abe-leaves-behind\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-japan-shinzo-abe-leaves-behind\/\",\"name\":\"The Japan Shinzo Abe leaves behind | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-japan-shinzo-abe-leaves-behind\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2020-08-31T01:00:52+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-08-31T00:35:14+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/d5004cc68ca6830c8476a0a837f4d6a4\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-japan-shinzo-abe-leaves-behind\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-japan-shinzo-abe-leaves-behind\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-japan-shinzo-abe-leaves-behind\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The Japan Shinzo Abe leaves behind\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/d5004cc68ca6830c8476a0a837f4d6a4\",\"name\":\"Bill Emmott\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/9c8d0f1f77457fa9342fd96c697f52ba?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/9c8d0f1f77457fa9342fd96c697f52ba?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Bill Emmott\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/bill-emmott\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The Japan Shinzo Abe leaves behind | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-japan-shinzo-abe-leaves-behind\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The Japan Shinzo Abe leaves behind | The Strategist","og_description":"Shinzo Abe\u2019s sudden resignation on health grounds ends the tenure of Japan\u2019s longest-serving prime minister. The country\u2019s most internationally recognised statesman since 1945, Abe has been, among other things, the world leader most keen on ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-japan-shinzo-abe-leaves-behind\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2020-08-31T01:00:52+00:00","article_modified_time":"2020-08-31T00:35:14+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1024,"height":683,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/GettyImages-1228235088.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Bill Emmott","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Bill Emmott","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-japan-shinzo-abe-leaves-behind\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/GettyImages-1228235088.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/GettyImages-1228235088.jpg","width":1024,"height":683,"caption":"TOKYO, JAPAN - AUGUST 28: People pass by as Japan's Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, is displayed on a giant television screen during a press conference in which he announced his resignation on August 28, 2020 in Tokyo, Japan. Shinzo Abe, Japan's longest serving post-war prime minister, announced his resignation today amid speculation surrounding his health. (Photo by Carl Court\/Getty Images)"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-japan-shinzo-abe-leaves-behind\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-japan-shinzo-abe-leaves-behind\/","name":"The Japan Shinzo Abe leaves behind | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-japan-shinzo-abe-leaves-behind\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2020-08-31T01:00:52+00:00","dateModified":"2020-08-31T00:35:14+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/d5004cc68ca6830c8476a0a837f4d6a4"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-japan-shinzo-abe-leaves-behind\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-japan-shinzo-abe-leaves-behind\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-japan-shinzo-abe-leaves-behind\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"The Japan Shinzo Abe leaves behind"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/d5004cc68ca6830c8476a0a837f4d6a4","name":"Bill Emmott","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/9c8d0f1f77457fa9342fd96c697f52ba?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/9c8d0f1f77457fa9342fd96c697f52ba?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Bill Emmott"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/bill-emmott\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58697"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1199"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=58697"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58697\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":58702,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58697\/revisions\/58702"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/58704"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=58697"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=58697"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=58697"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}