{"id":58786,"date":"2020-09-03T13:36:04","date_gmt":"2020-09-03T03:36:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=58786"},"modified":"2020-11-24T10:43:21","modified_gmt":"2020-11-23T23:43:21","slug":"the-threat-spectrum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-threat-spectrum\/","title":{"rendered":"The threat spectrum"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Welcome to the first edition of \u2018The threat spectrum\u2019, a twice-monthly update focusing on non-traditional security threats. It\u2019s divided into five sections covering climate change (Planet A<\/strong>), trends in democracy and authoritarianism (Democracy watch<\/strong>), mis- and disinformation (Information operations<\/strong>), economics and global finance (Follow the money<\/strong>), and counterterrorism and non-state actors (Terror byte<\/strong>).<\/em><\/p>\n

Planet A <\/strong><\/p>\n

With Australia\u2019s bushfire season<\/a> having already begun, the bushfire royal commission released an interim report<\/a> that attempts to quantify the impact of the devastating 2019\u201320 season and to outline strategies for mitigating future natural disasters.<\/p>\n

The commission\u2019s final report, due on 28 October, is expected<\/a> to recommend sweeping changes to how the federal government responds to natural disasters. Much like the interim report, the final report will probably favour strategies that improve disaster management coordination and climate adaptation r<\/a>ather than those that reduce carbon emissions.<\/p>\n

While mitigation and disaster management are important, reducing emissions is critical in mitigating future bushfires, according to ASPI\u2019s Robert Glasser<\/a>. Taking a long-term view of this issue is essential. While the 2020\u201321 bushfire season may not be projected<\/a> to be as severe as last year\u2019s, climate change will only exacerbate the intensity and frequency<\/a> of bushfires across Australia.<\/p>\n

Democracy watch <\/strong><\/p>\n

In Thailand, a number of activists, political leaders and even rappers have been arrested<\/a> on charges of sedition for leading pro-democracy protests against the military government run by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha.<\/p>\n

These arrests, described by protestors as a \u2018strategic lawsuit against public participation<\/a>\u2019, have been characterised as using legal action to intimidate opponents of the government to the point where they abandon criticism and dissent. According<\/a> to Human Rights Watch, \u2018each new arrest of a peaceful pro-democracy activist shows the Thai government\u2019s authoritarian tendencies and lack of respect for human rights\u2019. Prayut has denied<\/a> allegations of attempted political crackdowns. The arrests have not prevented protests across Thailand from happening on a near-daily basis<\/a> since July.<\/p>\n

The democracy movement, driven by young Thais, is aimed at pressuring the Prayut government to respect the democratic rights and freedoms of Thai citizens via three core demands<\/a>: dissolving parliament, stopping harassment of citizens and rewriting the constitution. But protesters have also issued 10 additional demands<\/a> for reforming the monarchy, traditionally a sensitive subject in Thailand.<\/p>\n

Information operations<\/strong><\/p>\n

The US Defense Department has released its 2020 report<\/a> on military and security developments in China. The report noted that the People\u2019s Liberation Army is pursuing an \u2018intelligentised warfare\u2019<\/a> approach through its military\u2013civil fusion strategy<\/a>. Most of these operations will be led by the PLA\u2019s Strategic Support Force<\/a>, which was formed in 2016 to coordinate missions involving cyberwarfare, reconnaissance, electronic warfare and psychological warfare.<\/p>\n

Recent developments in artificial intelligence, cloud computing, big data and quantum information networks will increase the speed of future combat, demanding accelerated processing of real-time information to support rapid decision-making.<\/p>\n

The PLA\u2019s \u2018informationised<\/a>\u2019 approach set out to establish information superiority, including by denying an adversary\u2019s abilities to acquire and use information. Intelligentisation shifts the strategy beyond information-gathering to integrating emerging technologies more directly into command-and-control and decision-making structures. The utility of these capabilities will depend on China obtaining large quantities of high-quality data about foreign militaries, as well as recruiting, training and retaining the necessary scientific and technical expertise.<\/p>\n

Follow the money <\/strong><\/p>\n

The US enacted sanctions last week against individuals<\/a> and companies<\/a> \u2018responsible for or complicit in\u2019 China\u2019s actions in the South China Sea. The impact of these measures may be limited given that many of the targeted companies don\u2019t do a lot of trade with the US. However, it\u2019s hoped that other countries and entities that might consider doing business will be deterred<\/a> from engaging with them.<\/p>\n

The move could affect China\u2019s Belt and Road Initiative<\/a>, as two of the sanctioned companies, China Communications Construction Company and China Electronics Technology Group, are important players in physical and digital infrastructure construction along the belt and road.<\/p>\n

But the ability of unilateral US sanctions to drive change in China\u2019s policy<\/a> settings<\/a> is arguable. Lessons<\/a> from US sanctions on Russia indicate that political systems and economies can adapt to the constraints imposed on them. Sanctions in this case, however, may be useful in signalling US resolve on the South China Sea, both domestically and internationally, and may exert some kind of deterrent effect on China\u2019s activities there, as well as on other countries that may seek to flout the international law of the sea.<\/p>\n

Terror byte <\/strong><\/p>\n

After the fall of the Islamic State caliphate and the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, the world has experienced a period of relative calm in terms of internationally coordinated terrorist attacks. However, Deakin University Professor Greg Barton argues<\/a> that calm periods like this have often been followed by stronger and more devastating waves of terror, and authorities should therefore be ready to face different challenges<\/a> in the near future.<\/p>\n

The landscape of terrorism has shifted towards a more complex picture, where lone actors and the far-right<\/a> have gained prominence, and where increasingly dangerous ideologies<\/a> propagate online at unprecedented speed.<\/p>\n

To prepare to counter the next wave of both old and new forms of terrorism, governments need to address the problems of radicalisation arising from social networks, poor community relations, corruption and dependence on military interventionism,<\/a> as well as the need to improve the agility and innovation of counterterrorism responses.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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