{"id":59105,"date":"2020-09-16T15:03:06","date_gmt":"2020-09-16T05:03:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=59105"},"modified":"2020-09-16T15:03:06","modified_gmt":"2020-09-16T05:03:06","slug":"russias-quest-to-make-itself-indispensable-in-the-middle-east","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/russias-quest-to-make-itself-indispensable-in-the-middle-east\/","title":{"rendered":"Russia\u2019s quest to make itself indispensable in the Middle East"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Although it has neither the desire nor the financial or military capacity to actually displace the United States in the Middle East, Russia has become adept at planting itself firmly in the middle of crises and conflicts and establishing itself as an indispensable intermediary at relatively little cost.\u00a0This has been most visible in Syria and Libya, where Russia and other regional powers manage the complicated political and military dynamics while the US focuses on counterterrorism operations.<\/p>\n

Less often discussed, however, are Russia\u2019s attempts to become a key player in both the Israeli\u2013Palestinian conflict and Lebanon. Recent developments in both arenas may well give Russia the space to finally make itself a vital fixture.<\/p>\n

The successful Russian intervention in Syria in 2015 is ground zero for Moscow\u2019s ever-expanding presence. Coinciding with\u00a0abortive US attempts<\/a>\u00a0to form an alliance with Russia against jihadist groups in Syria in September 2016\u2014a deal that implicitly guaranteed Bashar al-Assad\u2019s continued rule and allowed Russia to turn its attention elsewhere\u2014Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to\u00a0host a summit<\/a>\u00a0in Moscow between Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.<\/p>\n

Relations between the Palestinians and Russians picked up dramatically<\/a>, however, following US President Donald Trump\u2019s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel\u2019s capital in December 2017, which led the Palestinian Authority to cut off all contacts with the US, including security ties with the CIA.\u00a0Abbas himself led a high-ranking delegation to Russia in early 2018 to discuss a\u00a0new multilateral format<\/a>\u00a0for Israeli\u2013Palestinian negotiations with Russia at its centre.<\/p>\n

In 2018, Russia also began\u00a0meeting directly<\/a>\u00a0for the first time with Palestinian Islamic Jihad, an Iranian proxy it once reportedly\u00a0considered<\/a>\u00a0a terrorist group. Direct contact with Hamas, which Russia never considered a terrorist group, also increased, culminating in an\u00a0intra-Palestinian summit<\/a>\u00a0involving all factions in Gaza and the West Bank, including the Palestinian Authority, in February 2019. Although Russia failed to get Hamas and Islamic Jihad to sign up to its \u2018Moscow declaration\u2019, which was\u00a0intended<\/a>\u00a0to push back against US announcements, close consultation with all the Palestinian factions continued, with Russia pressing them to unite under the political program of the Palestine Liberation Organization.<\/p>\n

While that goal is likely impossible, Russia did manage in a phone call<\/a> in July 2020 to persuade Jibril Rajoub, secretary-general of the Fatah Central Committee, to hold a joint videoconference<\/a>\u00a0with Hamas to present a united front.\u00a0Since late August, Russia has consulted almost daily<\/a> with senior Palestinian leaders from several major groups, culminating<\/a> in a 3 September videoconference between the 14 major factions. Both before and especially since the videoconference, Russia has been pushing all the factions to attend another pan-Palestinian summit<\/a> in Moscow to help nudge unity efforts along.<\/p>\n

On the centrality of Russia to the Israeli\u2013Palestinian conflict, at least, the factions are already united. Senior Hamas official Moussa Abu Marzuk\u00a0stated<\/a>\u00a0in July 2019 that only Russia could help the Palestinians against the US, while Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki\u00a0said<\/a>\u00a0in June this year, \u2018We trust President Vladimir Putin … Palestine is willing to have talks with Israel via video conferencing and under Russian auspices.\u2019<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s growing presence in Lebanon flows out of its intervention in Syria, with which Lebanon has been inextricably entwined for decades. A 2019\u00a0investigative report<\/a>\u00a0by\u00a0Novaya Gazeta<\/em> found that a business jet associated with Yevgeny Prigozhin\u2014the nominal owner of \u2018Wagner\u2019 mercenaries who are fully controlled by the Russian military intelligence agency GRU\u2014had been making monthly flights to Beirut since at least December 2016. From there they would fly to various Wagner theatres of operation in Syria and Africa. Coupled with\u00a0claims<\/a>\u00a0that GRU chief Igor Sergun\u2019s sudden death in January 2016 occurred in Lebanon and not in Moscow, there\u2019s circumstantial evidence to suggest Beirut is an operational centre of Russian activity in the Middle East.<\/p>\n

Russian attempts to become a major political player in Lebanon\u00a0mostly failed<\/a>\u00a0until late 2018, when Lebanon accepted an important, if symbolic, US$5 million in Russian military aid. Although Moscow has thus far been unable to get a Lebanese signature on a draft\u00a0military agreement<\/a>, the two sides have since 2019 grown\u00a0closer politically<\/a>\u00a0and Russia has become\u00a0more active<\/a>\u00a0in Lebanon\u2019s energy sector.<\/p>\n

Yet, until the recent explosion in Beirut and\u00a0subsequent resignation<\/a>\u00a0of the government, Russia was simply not a significant actor in Lebanon. The political vacuum that has now developed, and Moscow\u2019s close relations with all sides, may have opened a door for Russian influence in Lebanese politics. For instance, on 17 August, former Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri sent an adviser to\u00a0consult<\/a>\u00a0with Putin\u2019s Middle East envoy Mikhael Bogdanov on future political developments in the country. Bogdanov also had phone conversation<\/a>s with Hariri, Druze powerbroker<\/a> Walid Jumblatt and the Free Patriotic Movement\u2019s<\/a> Gebran Bassil, and met<\/a> in Moscow with Lebanon\u2019s ambassador to Russia and with an adviser to Lebanese President Michel Aoun, with final consultations taking place on 27 August.\u00a0 A new prime minister, Mustapha Adib, was designated<\/a> on 31 August, though the actual future of the government is still unknown.<\/p>\n

It is unclear whether the crushing US sanctions on both Iran and the Assad regime, which necessarily have an impact on Lebanon, along with severe international pressure for reform, will hinder or help Moscow\u2019s influence. What will certainly help it, though, is its increasingly<\/a> close partnership<\/a> with France, which has taken the lead role<\/a> in Lebanon after the Beirut explosion across a spectrum of political and military issues, as well as its alliance with Iran, Syria and Hezbollah, the most relevant actors in the country.<\/p>\n

As Lebanon sets out to rebuild its capital, Russia, the only country to maintain close relations with every state and non-state actor involved, could become supreme arbiter as it effectively has in Syria and Libya.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Although it has neither the desire nor the financial or military capacity to actually displace the United States in the Middle East, Russia has become adept at planting itself firmly in the middle of crises …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":968,"featured_media":59122,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[267,218,926,163],"class_list":["post-59105","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-lebanon","tag-middle-east","tag-palestine","tag-russia"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRussia\u2019s quest to make itself indispensable in the Middle East | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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