{"id":59323,"date":"2020-09-24T11:00:47","date_gmt":"2020-09-24T01:00:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=59323"},"modified":"2020-09-24T11:13:50","modified_gmt":"2020-09-24T01:13:50","slug":"china-is-paying-a-high-price-for-provoking-india","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/china-is-paying-a-high-price-for-provoking-india\/","title":{"rendered":"China is paying a high price for provoking India"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

China\u2019s foreign minister, Wang Yi, recently declared<\/a> that aggression and expansionism have never been in the Chinese nation\u2019s \u2018genes\u2019. It is almost astonishing that he managed to say it with a straight face.<\/p>\n

Aggression and expansionism obviously are not genetic traits, but they have defined President Xi Jinping\u2019s tenure. Xi, who in some ways has taken up the expansionist mantle<\/a> of Mao Zedong, is attempting to implement<\/a> a modern version of the tributary system that Chinese emperors used to establish authority over vassal states: submit to the emperor, and reap the benefits of peace and trade with the empire.<\/p>\n

For Xi, the Covid-19 pandemic\u2014which has preoccupied the world\u2019s governments for months\u2014seemed like an ideal opportunity<\/a> to make quick progress on his agenda. So, in April and May, he directed the People\u2019s Liberation Army to launch furtive incursions<\/a> into the icy borderlands of India\u2019s Ladakh region, where it proceeded to establish heavily fortified encampments.<\/p>\n

It wasn\u2019t nearly as clever a plan as Xi probably thought. Far from entrenching China\u2019s regional pre-eminence, it has intensified the pushback by Indo-Pacific powers, which have deepened<\/a> their security cooperation. This includes China\u2019s most powerful competitor, the United States, thereby escalating a bilateral strategic confrontation that has technological, economic, diplomatic and military dimensions. The spectre of international isolation and supply disruptions now looms over China, spurring Xi to announce plans to hoard mammoth quantities<\/a> of mineral resources and agricultural products.<\/p>\n

But Xi\u2019s real miscalculation on the Himalayan border was vis-\u00e0-vis India, which has now abandoned its appeasement policy<\/a> towards China. Not surprisingly, China remains committed to the PLA\u2019s incursions, which it continues to portray as defensive: late last month, Xi told<\/a> senior officials to \u2018solidify border defences and ensure frontier security\u2019 in the Himalayan region.<\/p>\n

India, however, is ready to fight. In June, the PLA ambushed and killed Indian soldiers patrolling Ladakh\u2019s Galwan Valley in a hand-to-hand confrontation that led to the deaths of numerous<\/a> Chinese troops\u2014the first PLA troops killed in action outside United Nations peacekeeping operations in more than four decades. Afterwards, Xi was so embarrassed by this outcome that, whereas India honoured its 20 fallen as martyrs, China refused to admit its precise death toll.<\/p>\n

The truth is that, without the element of surprise, China is not equipped to dominate India in a military confrontation. And India is making sure that it will not be caught off guard<\/a> again. It has now matched Chinese military deployments along the Himalayan frontier and activated<\/a> its entire logistics network to transport the supplies needed to sustain the troops and equipment through the coming harsh winter.<\/p>\n

In another blow to China, Indian special forces recently occupied strategic mountain positions<\/a> overlooking key Chinese deployments on the southern side of Pangong Lake. Unlike the PLA, which prefers to encroach on undefended border areas, Indian forces carried out their operation right under China\u2019s nose, in the midst of a major PLA build-up.<\/p>\n

If that were not humiliating enough for China, India eagerly noted that the Special Frontier Force (SFF) that spearheaded the operation comprises Tibetan refugees. The Tibetan soldier who was killed by a landmine in the operation was honoured with a well-attended military funeral.<\/p>\n

India\u2019s message was clear: China\u2019s claims to Tibet, which separated India and China until Mao\u2019s regime annexed it in 1951, are not nearly as strong as it pretends they are. Tibetans view China as a brutally repressive occupying power<\/a>, and those eager to fight the occupiers flocked to the SFF, established after Mao\u2019s 1962 war with India.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s the rub: China\u2019s claims to India\u2019s vast Himalayan borderlands are based on their alleged historical links<\/a> to Tibet. If China is merely occupying Tibet, how can it claim sovereignty over those borderlands?<\/p>\n

In any case, Xi\u2019s latest effort to gain control of territories that aren\u2019t China\u2019s to take has proved far more difficult to complete than it was to launch. As China\u2019s actions in the South China Sea demonstrate, Xi prefers asymmetrical or hybrid warfare, which combines conventional and irregular tactics with psychological and media manipulation, disinformation, lawfare and coercive diplomacy.<\/p>\n

But while Xi managed to change the South China Sea\u2019s geopolitical map<\/a> without firing a shot, it seems clear that this will not work on China\u2019s Himalayan border. Instead, Xi\u2019s approach has placed the Sino-Indian relationship\u2014crucial to regional stability\u2014on a knife edge. Xi wants neither to back down nor to wage an open war, which is unlikely to yield the decisive victory he needs to restore his reputation<\/a> after the border debacle.<\/p>\n

China might have the world\u2019s largest active-duty military force, but India\u2019s is also massive. More important, India\u2019s battle-hardened forces have experience in low-intensity conflicts at high altitudes; the PLA, by contrast<\/a>, has had no combat experience since its disastrous 1979 invasion of Vietnam. Given this, a Sino-Indian war in the Himalayas would probably end in a stalemate, with both sides suffering heavy losses.<\/p>\n

Xi seems to be hoping that he can simply wear India down. At a time when the Indian economy has registered its worst-ever contraction<\/a> due to the still-escalating Covid-19 crisis, Xi has forced India to divert an increasing share of resources to national defence. Meanwhile, ceasefire violations by Pakistan, China\u2019s close ally, have increased to a record high<\/a>, raising the spectre of a two-front war for India. As some Chinese military analysts have suggested, Xi could use America\u2019s preoccupation with its coming presidential election to carry out a quick, localised strike against India without seeking to start a war.<\/p>\n

But it seems less likely that India will wilt under Chinese pressure than that Xi will leave behind a legacy of costly blunders. With his Himalayan misadventure, he has provoked a powerful adversary and boxed himself into a corner.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

China\u2019s foreign minister, Wang Yi, recently declared that aggression and expansionism have never been in the Chinese nation\u2019s \u2018genes\u2019. It is almost astonishing that he managed to say it with a straight face. Aggression and …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":482,"featured_media":59327,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1163,52,69,204],"class_list":["post-59323","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-borders","tag-china","tag-india","tag-xi-jinping"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChina is paying a high price for provoking India | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/china-is-paying-a-high-price-for-provoking-india\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China is paying a high price for provoking India | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"China\u2019s foreign minister, Wang Yi, recently declared that aggression and expansionism have never been in the Chinese nation\u2019s \u2018genes\u2019. 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