{"id":60515,"date":"2020-11-16T12:00:43","date_gmt":"2020-11-16T01:00:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=60515"},"modified":"2020-11-16T11:53:20","modified_gmt":"2020-11-16T00:53:20","slug":"biden-victory-leaves-eastern-europes-mini-trumps-alone-in-the-wilderness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/biden-victory-leaves-eastern-europes-mini-trumps-alone-in-the-wilderness\/","title":{"rendered":"Biden victory leaves Eastern Europe\u2019s mini-Trumps alone in the wilderness"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Joe Biden\u2019s election as president of the United States has seriously weakened authoritarian and populist governments around the world. For independent global powers like Russia, Brazil and Turkey, Donald Trump\u2019s departure need not amount to a complete tragedy. But for the governments of Poland, Hungary and Serbia\u2014and perhaps Boris Johnson\u2019s United Kingdom, too\u2014it is a veritable disaster.<\/p>\n

Not surprisingly, each of these smaller players has greeted Biden\u2019s election with fear and loathing. Putting it most bluntly, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has already complained<\/a> that, \u2018I did not get along with Biden when he came to Serbia [as Barack Obama\u2019s vice president]. I can\u2019t get along with him now. I congratulated him and that\u2019s it.\u2019 Clearly, Russia, not America, will remain Vucic\u2019s pole star.<\/p>\n

For his part, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has long made it clear that his \u2018Plan A<\/a>\u2019 was for a Trump victory, reflecting how close the two have become. Like Vucic, the Hungarian government harbors resentments for things Biden said back in the Obama era, when, according to Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, Hungary was the subject<\/a> of \u2018continuous lecturing, accusations and attacks\u2019.<\/p>\n

To be sure, before Trump came to power, Orban was practically persona non grata in Washington. The last US president to visit Hungary was George W. Bush in 2006, when Orban was out of power. After Orban took office in 2010, the Obama administration repeatedly criticised him for its authoritarian tendencies, clampdown on public and private media, and kleptocracy. In return, Hungary introduced sanctions against several high-level US officials, and\u2014following Trump\u2019s arrival in the White House\u2014kicked the US-accredited Central European University out of the country<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But Orban has long tried to juggle several geopolitical balls. While maintaining close relations with Russia and even China, he has enjoyed the protection of German\u2014particularly Bavarian\u2014politicians who do not hide their sympathy for him. Orban thus has gotten away with repeated attacks on basic European principles such as the rule of law, and has even indulged in open anti-Semitism. Yet to this day, his party, Fidesz, remains in the European People\u2019s Party, the umbrella group for conservatives in the European Parliament.<\/p>\n

It is Poland\u2019s government that has the most to worry about. When the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party came to power in 2015, it initially chose the UK as its main ally in the EU. But since the 2016 US election (which followed on the heels of the UK\u2019s Brexit referendum), PiS has bet everything on its cosy relationship with Trump, an American leader who could not care less about democratic principles or the rule of law.<\/p>\n

Now that Trump is on his way out, and Johnson (inelegantly dubbed \u2018Britain Trump\u2019 by the US president) is rushing to get in Biden\u2019s good graces, the Polish government is left with no powerful friends on the international stage. Because Poland is staunchly opposed to Russia, too, it now stands completely alone. This development represents another breach in Poland\u2019s post-communist diplomatic strategy, two principles of which are to avoid dependence on any one country and to avoid isolation at all costs.<\/p>\n

Of course, PiS cannot say that it didn\u2019t know the risks of losing its last ally. Just last month, Biden made<\/a> his low opinion of the PiS government clear when he included Poland alongside Hungary and Belarus as an example of the \u2018rise of totalitarian regimes in the world\u2019. Whereas Polish President Andrzej Duda was effusive in congratulating<\/a> Trump on his 2016 victory, this time he congratulated<\/a> Biden merely \u2018for a successful presidential campaign\u2019.<\/p>\n

For Trump, Poland was proof that foreign policy could be transactional. The PiS government signed multiple arms contracts with the US in exchange for symbolic gestures, such as Trump\u2019s invitation to Duda to visit the White House during his own presidential campaign in June. On 9 November, Duda signed a Poland\u2013US defence cooperation agreement that is brimming with Trumpian overtones. A similar agreement concluded by a previous Polish government had held the US responsible for construction costs and granted Poland legal jurisdiction over US personnel and bases on its soil. Under the new accord, Poland will receive US financing, and the US will maintain jurisdiction.<\/p>\n

Excellent relations with Trump were supposed to enable Poland to dismiss the European Union\u2019s criticism and maintain cool ties with Germany as the PiS government subdued Poland\u2019s judiciary. Now Trump\u2019s electoral loss is compounded by a second piece of catastrophic news.<\/p>\n

Earlier this year, the European Council and the European Parliament agreed to make EU funding conditional on compliance with the rule of law, which PiS has been undermining ever since it came to power. The European Council is now set to adopt this \u2018conditionality\u2019 clause with a qualified-majority vote, meaning that Poland has no veto. Yes, Poland could try to block another element of the EU\u2019s budgetary process\u2014the so-called own-resource decision (determining how much a given country pays to the EU)\u2014but only if it is willing to lose the last remaining support it has in Germany. At this point, not even Orban is likely to go out on a limb for Poland.<\/p>\n

Moreover, the EU has its own nuclear option, that is, accepting the new \u20ac750 billion Recovery Fund as a 25+2 intergovernmental agreement, which would suit many net payers, as Poland is one of the biggest beneficiaries. Here, too, Orban has no incentive to stick his neck out for PiS. Just like when he supported the bid of former Polish prime minister Donald Tusk, a PiS bogeyman, for a second term as European Council president, Orban will not hesitate to leave the Polish government out in the cold.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Joe Biden\u2019s election as president of the United States has seriously weakened authoritarian and populist governments around the world. For independent global powers like Russia, Brazil and Turkey, Donald Trump\u2019s departure need not amount to …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":646,"featured_media":60516,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1858,1428,959,955],"class_list":["post-60515","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-authoritarianism","tag-donald-trump","tag-eu","tag-poland"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBiden victory leaves Eastern Europe\u2019s mini-Trumps alone in the wilderness | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/biden-victory-leaves-eastern-europes-mini-trumps-alone-in-the-wilderness\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Biden victory leaves Eastern Europe\u2019s mini-Trumps alone in the wilderness | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Joe Biden\u2019s election as president of the United States has seriously weakened authoritarian and populist governments around the world. 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