{"id":60771,"date":"2020-11-24T13:19:17","date_gmt":"2020-11-24T02:19:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=60771"},"modified":"2020-11-25T10:15:41","modified_gmt":"2020-11-24T23:15:41","slug":"a-biden-return-to-obamas-cautious-china-policies-would-be-a-big-mistake","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/a-biden-return-to-obamas-cautious-china-policies-would-be-a-big-mistake\/","title":{"rendered":"A Biden return to Obama\u2019s cautious China policies would be a big mistake"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

When Joe Biden made his first speech<\/a> as president-elect of the United States, he declared that a revived America would \u2018lead not by the example of our power, but by the power of our example\u2019. For Americans who believed Donald Trump\u2019s antics debased the office of the president, Biden\u2019s pledge to restore Washington\u2019s moral leadership would have offered much relief by evoking comfortable images of American exceptionalism. But those very images of a moralistic and restrained United States, while welcome domestically and perhaps in Europe, won\u2019t help an Indo-Pacific grappling with the challenges posed by an increasingly aggressive People\u2019s Republic of China.<\/p>\n

The Indo-Pacific is a politically diverse, multipolar region whose constituent governments, by and large, want to retain their sovereignty and avoid falling under Beijing\u2019s orbit. That requires an interested, engaged America that can act as a backstop against China\u2019s military expansionism.<\/p>\n

Though Trump\u2019s personal bombast and antipathy for alliances rubbed some world leaders up the wrong way, his administration\u2019s willingness to use American power sent an important message. Bilahari Kausikan<\/a>, former permanent secretary of the Singaporean ministry of foreign affairs, outlined the case in a recent article for Nikkei Asia<\/em>. \u2018Trump understood power, albeit instinctively\u2019, Kausikan observed. Whereas Barack Obama failed to enforce his \u2018red line\u2019 over Bashar al-Assad\u2019s grotesque use of chemical weapons against his own people, Trump \u2018bombed Syria \u2026 while at dinner with Xi Jinping\u2019. The episode<\/a> \u2018did much to restore the credibility of American power\u2019, Kausikan argued, for the simple reason that Trump had shown Beijing, rather conspicuously, that Washington\u2019s red lines again meant something. That message likely offered some reassurance to a region facing China\u2019s grey-zone coercion in the South China Sea.<\/p>\n

To be fair, Biden hasn\u2019t yet been given an opportunity to back up his rhetoric with demonstrations of American power. And the Biden campaign\u2019s rhetoric has been appropriately tough. Jeffrey Prescott and Ely Ratner<\/a>, two key advisers on the Biden campaign, argue that he \u2018will rally the free world and mobilize half the world\u2019s economy to hold Beijing to account for its trade abuses\u2019.<\/p>\n

Mich\u00e8le Flournoy<\/a>, who\u2019s likely to be Biden\u2019s defence secretary, believes that the US military will need reinvigoration so that it can \u2018sink all of China\u2019s military vessels, submarines, and merchant ships in the South China Sea within 72 hours\u2019. Biden<\/a> himself has even called Xi a \u2018thug\u2019. These are promising rhetorical signs that a Biden administration won\u2019t be as reluctant as Obama\u2019s to counter Chinese aggression.<\/p>\n

That said, the actions of the Biden team since the election suggest that the new administration may not walk the talk. The first sign was Biden\u2019s apparent unwillingness to follow the Trump administration\u2019s precedent<\/a> by accepting <\/a>a congratulatory phone call from Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen. Taiwan\u2019s foreign minister, Joseph Wu, explained<\/a> that Taipei had been working with Biden\u2019s team on ways to ensure that Tsai\u2019s congratulations were formally passed on to the president-elect. The result was a phone call<\/a> between Taipei\u2019s Washington envoy Bi-khim Hsiao and Biden foreign policy adviser (and the man who\u2019ll reportedly<\/a> be secretary of state) Antony Blinken, effectively downgrading US\u2013Taiwan ties.<\/p>\n

Rhetoric and phone calls aside, more insight into how Biden might approach China is likely to come from his picks for senior foreign policy roles. As Thomas Wright argued in an article<\/a> for the Lowy Institute, the foreign policy advisers who will likely take key positions in a Biden administration can be divided into two camps: the \u2018restorationists\u2019 and the \u2018reformers\u2019.<\/p>\n

\u2018Restorationists\u2019 admire the judiciousness with which Obama deployed military force, assign similar weight to transnational threats and geopolitical competition in the conduct of American statecraft, and believe in America\u2019s resilience as a great power. \u2018Reformers\u2019 believe that America needs to play a more active role in protecting its economic interests and cooperating with other countries, particularly democracies, to out-compete rising powers like China.<\/p>\n

The most notable restorationist is Susan Rice, who was in the running to be Biden\u2019s secretary of state but did not get the nod. This will be welcome news to Asia hands. Numerous<\/a> commentators<\/a> have argued that Rice\u2019s appointment to any senior role would be poorly received across the Indo-Pacific, especially in Japan<\/a>, due to her reportedly<\/a> weak grasp of regional issues.<\/p>\n

Another restorationist is John Kerry<\/a>, who has just been selected as Biden\u2019s presidential envoy for climate change<\/a>. Given China\u2019s status as the world\u2019s largest polluter<\/a>, Kerry\u2019s job will be to find ways of working with Beijing in order to secure a meaningful multilateral deal on climate change. Whether Kerry\u2019s bid to cooperate with Beijing will come at the cost of some of Biden\u2019s more competitive policies will depend on how effective other members of Biden\u2019s team are at getting the president\u2019s ear.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s where the reformers come in. Kurt Campbell<\/a> is probably the best-known reformist in the Biden camp, having been the architect of Obama\u2019s \u2018pivot to Asia\u2019 strategy. Campbell has long argued that the US needs to develop a coherent strategy<\/a> to out-compete China militarily, diplomatically and economically. Campbell\u2019s views<\/a>, along with his considerable expertise and connections<\/a> in the region, would make him welcome in most Indo-Pacific capitals. However, his name, hasn\u2019t arisen much in press speculation about Biden\u2019s possible senior appointments. Even if other reformers, like Ely Ratner and Jeffrey Prescott, take reasonably important roles in the national security bureaucracy, it seems unclear just how much influence the group will have with the president.<\/p>\n

Sitting between the restorationists and reformers is Antony Blinken<\/a>, who has been announced<\/a> as Biden\u2019s pick for secretary of state. Blinken seems to have developed a stronger appetite<\/a> for competition than other Obama-era figures, but wants to work with Beijing to ensure that these competitive dynamics don\u2019t escalate into confrontation. The task for Blinken will be to strike the right balance and ensure that the Biden administration doesn\u2019t revert to the old norm of US diplomacy that privileges cooperation with China over competition.<\/p>\n

Important though foreign policy cliques may be, domestic challenges are likely to take up considerable bandwidth in the Biden White House. In this respect, the writings and ambitions of Jake Sullivan, Biden\u2019s pick for national security adviser, are particularly revealing. A former foreign policy hand in the Obama administration, Sullivan has been vocal in arguing that American foreign policy needs to better address<\/a> the country\u2019s internal needs, and he was reportedly more interested in a domestic policy role<\/a> during the campaign. Given the weight of America\u2019s problems at home, ranging from the coronavirus to a burgeoning national debt, it seems likely that Sullivan will ensure Biden\u2019s key foreign policy decisions are better aligned with America\u2019s domestic priorities.<\/p>\n

Joe Biden may prove to be a president who takes a tough-minded approach to China that is supported by a well-executed and competitive strategy. Yet, what emerges from a preliminary look at the Biden transition is an administration that looks similar to Barack Obama\u2019s\u2014risk-averse and preoccupied by domestic concerns. For Americans who want to see a divided (and sick) nation heal, that may be just what the doctor ordered. But for countries in the Indo-Pacific that are living under the shadow of an increasingly aggressive Beijing, reviving the Obama administration\u2019s overly cautious approach would be a bad outcome.<\/p>\n

America can\u2019t just lead by the power of its example. It also needs to lead by the example of its power.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

When Joe Biden made his first speech as president-elect of the United States, he declared that a revived America would \u2018lead not by the example of our power, but by the power of our example\u2019. …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":592,"featured_media":60774,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[285,56,2825,31],"class_list":["post-60771","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-foreign-policy","tag-indo-pacific","tag-joe-biden","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nA Biden return to Obama\u2019s cautious China policies would be a big mistake | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/a-biden-return-to-obamas-cautious-china-policies-would-be-a-big-mistake\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Biden return to Obama\u2019s cautious China policies would be a big mistake | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"When Joe Biden made his first speech as president-elect of the United States, he declared that a revived America would \u2018lead not by the example of our power, but by the power of our example\u2019. ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/a-biden-return-to-obamas-cautious-china-policies-would-be-a-big-mistake\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-11-24T02:19:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-11-24T23:15:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/GettyImages-156444519.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"651\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Charlie Lyons Jones\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Charlie Lyons Jones\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/a-biden-return-to-obamas-cautious-china-policies-would-be-a-big-mistake\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/GettyImages-156444519.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/GettyImages-156444519.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":651,\"caption\":\"US Vice President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping display shirts with a message given to them by students at the International Studies Learning School in Southgate, outside of Los Angeles, on February 17, 2012. Xi's trip is the first to Los Angeles by a top-level Chinese leader for 13 years, and California sees it as an opportunity to strengthen Chinese investment in the western US state's major shipping, tourism and entertainment industries. AFP PHOTO \/ Frederic J. BROWN (Photo by FREDERIC J. BROWN \/ AFP) (Photo by FREDERIC J. BROWN\/AFP via Getty Images)\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/a-biden-return-to-obamas-cautious-china-policies-would-be-a-big-mistake\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/a-biden-return-to-obamas-cautious-china-policies-would-be-a-big-mistake\/\",\"name\":\"A Biden return to Obama\u2019s cautious China policies would be a big mistake | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/a-biden-return-to-obamas-cautious-china-policies-would-be-a-big-mistake\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2020-11-24T02:19:17+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-11-24T23:15:41+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/c1034d973a26db7223859549b44e49f2\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/a-biden-return-to-obamas-cautious-china-policies-would-be-a-big-mistake\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/a-biden-return-to-obamas-cautious-china-policies-would-be-a-big-mistake\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/a-biden-return-to-obamas-cautious-china-policies-would-be-a-big-mistake\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"A Biden return to Obama\u2019s cautious China policies would be a big mistake\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/c1034d973a26db7223859549b44e49f2\",\"name\":\"Charlie Lyons Jones\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/7dea9586b5fc0e392383f53cc91fcae7?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/7dea9586b5fc0e392383f53cc91fcae7?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Charlie Lyons Jones\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/charlie-lyons-jones\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"A Biden return to Obama\u2019s cautious China policies would be a big mistake | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/a-biden-return-to-obamas-cautious-china-policies-would-be-a-big-mistake\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"A Biden return to Obama\u2019s cautious China policies would be a big mistake | The Strategist","og_description":"When Joe Biden made his first speech as president-elect of the United States, he declared that a revived America would \u2018lead not by the example of our power, but by the power of our example\u2019. ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/a-biden-return-to-obamas-cautious-china-policies-would-be-a-big-mistake\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2020-11-24T02:19:17+00:00","article_modified_time":"2020-11-24T23:15:41+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1024,"height":651,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/GettyImages-156444519.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Charlie Lyons Jones","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Charlie Lyons Jones","Est. reading time":"6 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/a-biden-return-to-obamas-cautious-china-policies-would-be-a-big-mistake\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/GettyImages-156444519.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/GettyImages-156444519.jpg","width":1024,"height":651,"caption":"US Vice President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping display shirts with a message given to them by students at the International Studies Learning School in Southgate, outside of Los Angeles, on February 17, 2012. Xi's trip is the first to Los Angeles by a top-level Chinese leader for 13 years, and California sees it as an opportunity to strengthen Chinese investment in the western US state's major shipping, tourism and entertainment industries. AFP PHOTO \/ Frederic J. BROWN (Photo by FREDERIC J. BROWN \/ AFP) (Photo by FREDERIC J. BROWN\/AFP via Getty Images)"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/a-biden-return-to-obamas-cautious-china-policies-would-be-a-big-mistake\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/a-biden-return-to-obamas-cautious-china-policies-would-be-a-big-mistake\/","name":"A Biden return to Obama\u2019s cautious China policies would be a big mistake | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/a-biden-return-to-obamas-cautious-china-policies-would-be-a-big-mistake\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2020-11-24T02:19:17+00:00","dateModified":"2020-11-24T23:15:41+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/c1034d973a26db7223859549b44e49f2"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/a-biden-return-to-obamas-cautious-china-policies-would-be-a-big-mistake\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/a-biden-return-to-obamas-cautious-china-policies-would-be-a-big-mistake\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/a-biden-return-to-obamas-cautious-china-policies-would-be-a-big-mistake\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"A Biden return to Obama\u2019s cautious China policies would be a big mistake"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/c1034d973a26db7223859549b44e49f2","name":"Charlie Lyons Jones","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/7dea9586b5fc0e392383f53cc91fcae7?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/7dea9586b5fc0e392383f53cc91fcae7?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Charlie Lyons Jones"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/charlie-lyons-jones\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60771"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/592"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=60771"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60771\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":60805,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60771\/revisions\/60805"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/60774"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60771"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=60771"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=60771"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}