{"id":61127,"date":"2020-12-08T11:00:31","date_gmt":"2020-12-08T00:00:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=61127"},"modified":"2020-12-08T11:36:32","modified_gmt":"2020-12-08T00:36:32","slug":"australia-risks-alienating-friends-and-deterring-no-one","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-risks-alienating-friends-and-deterring-no-one\/","title":{"rendered":"Australia risks alienating friends and deterring no one"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Contributors to The Strategist<\/em>\u2019s \u2018North of 26\u00b0 south<\/a>\u2019 series have explored the continued importance of northern Australia to national security and defence strategy, propelling the argument for expanding air<\/a>, naval<\/a> and space<\/a> bases in the Top End. This effort to prepare for an immediate hot-peace future<\/a> doesn\u2019t come without risk. Without adept strategic communication, we risk damaging our resilient yet fluctuating relationships with our northern neighbours.<\/p>\n

Dino Patti Djalal, a former Indonesian deputy foreign minister, spoke at ASPI\u2019s \u20182020 Strategic Vision<\/a>\u2019 conference on the shortfalls and long-term harm of such tactical miscalculations. He recalled being dumbstruck in 2011 when journalists questioned both him and Indonesia\u2019s President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in Hawaii on the placement of a US Marines air\u2013ground taskforce in Darwin. He reflected that neither the Americans nor the Australians had consulted or informed the president appropriately, creating embarrassment and spurring conspiracy theories that linger to this day in the Indonesian government about Australia\u2019s malintent. The proximity of the placement to West Papua and the Masela gas block was significant in the minds of Indonesian officials, and the unannounced development was a quiet setback to the relationship.<\/p>\n

We urgently need to craft our strategic communication to be better positioned to fulfil our mission in the north. The 1998 letter<\/a> from Australian Prime Minister John Howard to Indonesian President B.J. Habibie was indicative of communication lacking diplomatic nuance or strategic thought, ultimately backfiring and playing some role in prompting the snap referendum on independence for East Timor six months later.<\/p>\n

While we\u2019ve made improvements in our strategic communication since 1998, Australia at times still has a tin ear for how our neighbours will interpret our domestic policy.<\/p>\n

If Australia sees itself as a burgeoning middle power with a responsibility to protect, or at least support, the Indo-Pacific region, we\u2019ll need to create a consistent message aligned with our strategic goals. Was it that oversight that developed an undercurrent of anti-Australian sentiment in Indonesia that sparked alight in 2017 when General Gatot Nurmantyo severed defence ties<\/a> in a brief bilateral crisis? The general had spoken plainly and publicly of his concerns about the rotation of US Marines through Darwin, and accused Australia of recruiting Indonesian officers as spies.<\/p>\n

Investment in Australian military facilities proximate to Indo-Pacific shores has increased during a downward trend in defence spending in Southeast Asia. This has the clear potential to inflame and escalate underlying anxieties. These developments, paired with the ongoing funding cuts to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, have made the need for political nuance and tact not typically characteristic of Australian \u2018megaphone diplomacy\u2019<\/a> more urgent.<\/p>\n

If Australia is to avoid mistrust and misunderstandings, we\u2019ll need sophisticated strategic communication to navigate a \u2018poorer and more dangerous world<\/a>\u2019. We\u2019ll need to understand what motivates the foreign policies of our northern neighbours and their indirect methods of balancing against China\u2019s incremental incursions into their exclusive economic zones. Indonesia and ASEAN wish to see themselves<\/a> as independent of great-power contests. Whether that proves to be realistic or not, we\u2019ll need to craft our messaging to not alienate neighbours that don\u2019t appreciate a heavy-handed approach.<\/p>\n

South Pacific states are beginning to deviate from their traditional security relationships and leverage their geostrategic value for greater aid and investment, even if risking debt-trap diplomacy. In July at the UN Humans Rights Council, Papua New Guinea sided with China on its draconian Hong Kong national security law<\/a>. It\u2019s unclear exactly why PNG voted that way, but its signature to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative may have helped motivate the decision.<\/p>\n

The reinvigoration behind recent military development of northern Australia hasn\u2019t been an effort solely to deter foreign aggressors from our doorstep, but to project a credible military presence ready to support our friends in the region and maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Leveraging regional proximity, northern defence commitments promise to foster greater interoperability and the capacity to conduct surveillance against covert threats and ensure our preparedness to provide humanitarian and disaster responses. But, in failing to communicate the collective value of that investment to our security partners, we risk alienating our friends in the region and, in doing so, failing to hedge against escalating aggression from China.<\/p>\n

The government\u2019s defence strategic update<\/a> classifies the Indonesian defence partnership as of \u2018first order importance to Australia\u2019 and alleviates anxiety that Australia would consider Indonesia a potential threat. If that\u2019s the case, why hasn\u2019t Canberra done more to assure Jakarta, which has historically been suspicious of the US, of the intentions behind our defensive posturing and our strategic vision for northern Australia?<\/p>\n

While Prime Minister Scott Morrison\u2019s embrace of the \u2018Pacific family\u2019 was arguably out of the \u2018Scotty from marketing<\/a>\u2019 playbook, it did successfully reframe Australia\u2019s renewed interest in the region. The Pacific step-up<\/a> needs to communicate with Australia\u2019s partners in our near region and lose the neo-colonial, paternalistic undertones that have existed since the term \u2018arc of instability\u2019 was coined.<\/p>\n

Looking back on our past strategic communication failures, we need to focus on consulting with our regional partners in a whole-of-government sense so they have a deeper understanding of our strategic policy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Contributors to The Strategist\u2019s \u2018North of 26\u00b0 south\u2019 series have explored the continued importance of northern Australia to national security and defence strategy, propelling the argument for expanding air, naval and space bases in the …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1276,"featured_media":61130,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[338,56,8,1005],"class_list":["post-61127","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-defence-policy","tag-indo-pacific","tag-indonesia","tag-northern-australia","dinkus-north-of-26-south"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAustralia risks alienating friends and deterring no one | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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