{"id":61599,"date":"2020-12-24T15:20:20","date_gmt":"2020-12-24T04:20:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=61599"},"modified":"2021-01-14T14:04:07","modified_gmt":"2021-01-14T03:04:07","slug":"how-the-biden-administration-should-manage-us-indonesia-relations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-the-biden-administration-should-manage-us-indonesia-relations\/","title":{"rendered":"How the Biden administration should manage US\u2013Indonesia relations"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Of all the countries that\u00a0the new US administration might wish to nudge its way\u00a0as it tackles the implications of\u00a0Beijing\u2019s power and ambitions,\u00a0very\u00a0few matter more strategically than Indonesia.\u00a0Yet such are the obstacles to achieving this\u00a0in the prevailing circumstances that Joe Biden should think twice about trying.<\/p>\n

A more obtainable goal would be a level of influence in Jakarta sufficient to\u00a0give\u00a0Southeast Asia\u2019s largest nation\u00a0the confidence\u00a0to remain\u00a0just\u00a0where it\u00a0wants\u00a0to be: duchessed by both great powers and beholden to neither.\u00a0To achieve this, Washington should base its policies on the principle that the more Indonesia can have the confidence to secure its economic and security interests without conceding anything untoward to Beijing, the better it will be for both the US and Indonesia.<\/p>\n

After the ignorance and neglect that the Trump administration displayed towards\u00a0Southeast Asia, it\u00a0is likely\u00a0that Indonesia will welcome its successor, especially as Jakarta too observes Beijing\u2019s behaviour in Indonesia\u2019s northern waters with growing consternation.<\/p>\n

Biden\u2019s early\u00a0messages would also have been soothing music to those Indonesian ears hankering for a\u00a0more\u00a0multilateralist Washington after four years of \u2018America first\u2019 bombast,\u00a0trade wars and threats, not to mention Muslim bans and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo\u2019s discarding of any\u00a0pretence\u00a0of impartiality on the Palestinian question.<\/p>\n

The Indonesian government will be especially relieved at the signs that the incoming US administration aims to manage Beijing using a less erratic, more nuanced blend of resolve and tact, and to engage ASEAN much more than its predecessor.\u00a0Predictably, President Joko Widodo (commonly known as Jokowi) lost little time in congratulating<\/a> Biden via his social media platforms, using a formula reflecting his own developmental priorities while stroking Biden\u2019s predilections for a more values-based diplomacy by liberally mentioning \u2018democracy\u2019\u00a0in his remarks.<\/p>\n

For all\u00a0such talk,\u00a0however, the\u00a0Jokowi\u00a0administration will be\u00a0every bit as\u00a0transactional\u00a0in engaging its US counterpart as it is in dealing with Xi Jinping\u2019s regime, and any appeal to values will likely have little if any resonance. Jakarta\u00a0is most unlikely to\u00a0reject Biden\u2019s idea of a summit<\/a> of democracies and\u00a0would almost certainly attend it should it happen.\u00a0But if democracy promotion matters at all to Jokowi\u2014which seems unlikely in view of his own\u00a0questionable commitment to the principles of liberal democracy\u2014he may\u00a0be more inclined to view the Biden proposal as cutting across the bows of\u00a0Indonesia\u2019s own Bali Democracy Forum.<\/p>\n

Indonesians, moreover,\u00a0will be no more ready to accord the US authority on the subject\u00a0after the Donald Trump years than\u00a0many\u00a0other people around the globe.\u00a0In short, playing to shared values may well prove harmless, but useless.<\/p>\n

In contrast, the more the Biden\u00a0administration can respond to its counterpart\u2019s practical preoccupations, the more persuasive it will be in Jakarta.\u00a0These concerns are easy to discern and, to varying degrees, can be addressed.\u00a0Jokowi\u00a0wants\u00a0US investment,\u00a0financial support\u00a0and technology\u00a0for\u00a0his\u00a0grand infrastructure plans, and fair access<\/a> to a Covid-19 vaccine in the immediate term.<\/p>\n

Jokowi\u2019s trade minister, Agus Suparmanto<\/a>, will be intent on nailing down\u00a0market access for\u00a0Indonesia\u2019s\u00a0exports under\u00a0the\u00a0favourable terms\u00a0of the\u00a0Generalised Scheme of Preferences<\/a>,\u00a0which Trump belatedly (if conditionally)\u00a0agreed to in October. And the defence minister, Prabowo\u00a0Subianto, will want the US to be an active strategic presence in the region and a reliable supplier of the military hardware\u00a0Indonesia\u00a0needs\u00a0to develop\u00a0even a moderately credible deterrent capability\u2014and to keep issuing him with a visa<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But no matter how well Washington might satisfy Jakarta\u2019s wishes and desires, it will be disappointed should it assume that in return the Jokowi government would gratefully line up with it against Beijing.<\/p>\n

Gunboat-backed Chinese fishing incursions<\/a> into Indonesia\u2019s exclusive economic zone have prompted the government to step up its military presence on the Natuna Islands and criticise China\u2019s actions as inconsistent with international law. But it would take far more egregious bullying to drive Jakarta even to consider abandoning its \u2018free and active\u2019 doctrine and openly band-wagoning with Washington, especially since Trump\u2019s behaviour has only amplified suspicions about US reliability as a strategic partner. Even then it would most likely baulk at doing so out of the understandable fear of the region becoming the venue for what Indonesia, like other ASEAN states, regards as essentially a struggle between two great powers interested in either retaining or gaining hegemony<\/a>.<\/p>\n

For the foreseeable future, Indonesia will most likely continue flinching from any US proposal that it cooperate in operations that overtly challenge China, as it did<\/a> at the Trump request for refuelling rights for its US maritime surveillance aircraft operating in the South China Sea. It will instead continue seeking recourse in international law on the Natunas issue\u2014despite knowing that China simply ignores it\u2014and comfort in the fraternity of ASEAN, irrespective of the fact that the association\u2019s diplomatic initiatives have to date failed to dissuade Beijing from doing what it wants and seem to have little if any prospect of doing so in the future.<\/p>\n

The Biden administration should not waste any time and energy trying to budge the unbudgeable. It will have a better chance of persuading the post-Duterte Philippines and even Vietnam than Indonesia and should put its main efforts there. That doesn\u2019t mean it shouldn\u2019t also engage the Indonesians at the most senior levels on the question of closer defence and strategic cooperation. On the contrary, quietly helping Indonesia address its many deficiencies in the sector should be a priority, and not to do so would likely come across as disrespectful and insensitive to Indonesia\u2019s interests. It should start by treating Prabowo no differently than it will Jokowi\u2019s other ministers. But it should cooperate without expecting unrealistic returns from the investment.<\/p>\n

Above all, it should treat this aspect of the bilateral relationship as a part of a wider approach designed to highlight the renewed importance that it attaches to its partnership with Jakarta, one that displays respect for a nation that, for all its faults, has achieved much in recent decades. It should embrace as much as practicable Jokowi\u2019s more feasible aspirations for the country\u2019s development and its people\u2019s wellbeing.<\/p>\n

None of this will be anything other than problem-rich. It will all be frustratingly glacial. It will likely achieve just enough to keep Indonesia\u2019s relationships with both of its giant suitors non-aligned not just in form but in substance. It risks inflating Jakarta\u2019s sense of its own attractiveness and tendency to expect bilateral cooperation on its terms, especially since Beijing has no qualms about exploiting the appeal of its corruptive carrots to many in the Indonesian political elite while waving its stick.<\/p>\n

And it comes only with the guarantee that not doing it will have negative consequences, not that doing it will have positive ones.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Of all the countries that\u00a0the new US administration might wish to nudge its way\u00a0as it tackles the implications of\u00a0Beijing\u2019s power and ambitions,\u00a0very\u00a0few matter more strategically than Indonesia.\u00a0Yet such are the obstacles to achieving this\u00a0in the …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1241,"featured_media":61601,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[56,8,2825,31],"class_list":["post-61599","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-indo-pacific","tag-indonesia","tag-joe-biden","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHow the Biden administration should manage US\u2013Indonesia relations | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-the-biden-administration-should-manage-us-indonesia-relations\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How the Biden administration should manage US\u2013Indonesia relations | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Of all the countries that\u00a0the new US administration might wish to nudge its way\u00a0as it tackles the implications of\u00a0Beijing\u2019s power and ambitions,\u00a0very\u00a0few matter more strategically than Indonesia.\u00a0Yet such are the obstacles to achieving this\u00a0in the ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-the-biden-administration-should-manage-us-indonesia-relations\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-12-24T04:20:20+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-01-14T03:04:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/GettyImages-1229521895.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"683\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"David Engel\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"David Engel\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-the-biden-administration-should-manage-us-indonesia-relations\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/GettyImages-1229521895.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/GettyImages-1229521895.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":683,\"caption\":\"TOPSHOT - Local residents wearing masks of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris wave as they ride on a trishaw along a street in Solo, central Java on November 8, 2020 to celebrate their victory in the 2020 US presidential election. (Photo by Anwar Mustafa \/ AFP) (Photo by ANWAR MUSTAFA\/AFP via Getty Images)\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-the-biden-administration-should-manage-us-indonesia-relations\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-the-biden-administration-should-manage-us-indonesia-relations\/\",\"name\":\"How the Biden administration should manage US\u2013Indonesia relations | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-the-biden-administration-should-manage-us-indonesia-relations\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2020-12-24T04:20:20+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-01-14T03:04:07+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/8143ffe51018dbf1b95cac3e4c4d4757\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-the-biden-administration-should-manage-us-indonesia-relations\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-the-biden-administration-should-manage-us-indonesia-relations\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-the-biden-administration-should-manage-us-indonesia-relations\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"How the Biden administration should manage US\u2013Indonesia relations\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/8143ffe51018dbf1b95cac3e4c4d4757\",\"name\":\"David Engel\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/7dea68b6accc6054bacc8ac4ebce1bbb?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/7dea68b6accc6054bacc8ac4ebce1bbb?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"David Engel\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/david-engel\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"How the Biden administration should manage US\u2013Indonesia relations | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-the-biden-administration-should-manage-us-indonesia-relations\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"How the Biden administration should manage US\u2013Indonesia relations | The Strategist","og_description":"Of all the countries that\u00a0the new US administration might wish to nudge its way\u00a0as it tackles the implications of\u00a0Beijing\u2019s power and ambitions,\u00a0very\u00a0few matter more strategically than Indonesia.\u00a0Yet such are the obstacles to achieving this\u00a0in the ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-the-biden-administration-should-manage-us-indonesia-relations\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2020-12-24T04:20:20+00:00","article_modified_time":"2021-01-14T03:04:07+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1024,"height":683,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/GettyImages-1229521895.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"David Engel","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"David Engel","Est. reading time":"6 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-the-biden-administration-should-manage-us-indonesia-relations\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/GettyImages-1229521895.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/GettyImages-1229521895.jpg","width":1024,"height":683,"caption":"TOPSHOT - Local residents wearing masks of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris wave as they ride on a trishaw along a street in Solo, central Java on November 8, 2020 to celebrate their victory in the 2020 US presidential election. (Photo by Anwar Mustafa \/ AFP) (Photo by ANWAR MUSTAFA\/AFP via Getty Images)"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-the-biden-administration-should-manage-us-indonesia-relations\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-the-biden-administration-should-manage-us-indonesia-relations\/","name":"How the Biden administration should manage US\u2013Indonesia relations | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-the-biden-administration-should-manage-us-indonesia-relations\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2020-12-24T04:20:20+00:00","dateModified":"2021-01-14T03:04:07+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/8143ffe51018dbf1b95cac3e4c4d4757"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-the-biden-administration-should-manage-us-indonesia-relations\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-the-biden-administration-should-manage-us-indonesia-relations\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-the-biden-administration-should-manage-us-indonesia-relations\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"How the Biden administration should manage US\u2013Indonesia relations"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/8143ffe51018dbf1b95cac3e4c4d4757","name":"David Engel","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/7dea68b6accc6054bacc8ac4ebce1bbb?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/7dea68b6accc6054bacc8ac4ebce1bbb?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"David Engel"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/david-engel\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61599"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1241"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=61599"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61599\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":61840,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61599\/revisions\/61840"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/61601"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=61599"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=61599"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=61599"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}