{"id":61627,"date":"2020-12-24T11:05:36","date_gmt":"2020-12-24T00:05:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=61627"},"modified":"2020-12-24T11:04:22","modified_gmt":"2020-12-24T00:04:22","slug":"would-a-nuclear-armed-taiwan-deter-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/would-a-nuclear-armed-taiwan-deter-china\/","title":{"rendered":"Would a nuclear-armed Taiwan deter China?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

With President-elect Joe Biden set to take office on 20 January, there\u2019s little time to formulate a China policy, though it\u2019s clear his administration\u2019s approach to Beijing could have long-term implications for stability and peace in Asia. Unquestionably, the People\u2019s Republic of China\u2019s escalating aggression towards Taiwan will be the administration\u2019s greatest strategic challenge.<\/p>\n

Decisions made by the Biden administration will likely play a role in determining whether war between China and Taiwan becomes a reality and the lengths to which Taiwan feels it must go to defend its freedom.<\/p>\n

Two years ago, President Xi Jinping publicly declared that China would use force<\/a> to ensure Taiwan\u2019s reunification if it refused to go peacefully. Since then, the People\u2019s Liberation Army has expanded its harassment and testing of Taiwan\u2019s defences through naval<\/a>, air<\/a> and cyber<\/a> aggression.<\/p>\n

For many Taiwanese, the recent crackdown on Hong Kong<\/a> offers a window onto what may come<\/a> if Taiwan reunifies with the mainland. It should come as no surprise, then, that support for reunification is at an all-time low among Taiwanese, with around 90%<\/a> in opposition.<\/p>\n

Weak security guarantees from the United States, coupled with escalating aggression from China, may soon present Biden with a Taiwan that believes its only option for survival is to take a page from the Israeli playbook and restart a covert nuclear weapons program. When Taiwan went down that path<\/a> between 1967 and the late 1980s, the government in Taipei ultimately backed away from nuclear weapons because it appeared China was liberalising and heading toward democratisation.<\/p>\n

That is certainly no longer the case. Xi is proving a better authoritarian<\/a> than any of his post-Mao predecessors, and the 2018 decision of the National People\u2019s Congress to remove term limits<\/a> enables him to remain president and party chair indefinitely.<\/p>\n

According to China expert Michael Pillsbury, author of The hundred-year marathon<\/em><\/a>, <\/em>the Chinese Communist Party intends to integrate Hong Kong and Taiwan back into China in time to achieve \u2018Middle Kingdom\u2019 status by 2049\u2014the centennial of the CCP\u2019s victory over the Guomindang in the Chinese civil war.<\/p>\n

For many of the China experts on whom the Biden administration will rely for advice, working collaboratively with China is a tenet of the faith that cannot be questioned. They also see a policy of ambiguity concerning US security guarantees with Taiwan as essential.<\/p>\n

However, as the PLA rachets up pressure on Taiwan to reunify, Taiwan\u2019s president, Tsai Ing-wen, and her successor will likely find themselves in a position where they must take whatever steps are necessary to ensure the continued independence of a free and democratic Taiwan\u2014either in coordination with the US or independently.<\/p>\n

Taiwan\u2019s leaders sensed the urgency to develop their own nuclear capability once already because of the normalising of relations between the US and the PRC. During the 1970s, Taiwan produced plutonium for its indigenous weapons program<\/a>. While plutonium production was halted because of American pressure in 1976, the military government in Taiwan continued with its secret nuclear weapons program until the 1980s, which included a successful nuclear reaction.<\/p>\n

Taiwan is already a latent nuclear power. The move to nuclear weapons would not take long given its current materials and technical capacity.<\/p>\n

Taiwan already has two operational nuclear power plants on opposite ends of the island that could produce plutonium. It could use a \u2018Japan option\u2019<\/a> of enriching its radioactive materials for weaponisation in a short timeframe.<\/p>\n

Would a nuclear-armed Taiwan deter the PRC from an invasion? The use of nuclear weapons by a nuclear-armed Taiwan would certainly make an already difficult invasion<\/a> for Xi and the PLA more costly. History suggests<\/a> that once Taiwan has nuclear weapons, the PRC will become much less aggressive towards it\u2014making the development of nuclear weapons more attractive.<\/p>\n

Tsai\u2019s Democratic Progressive Party, despite its tense relations with the mainland, represents the anti-nuclear movement<\/a> within Taiwan. However, views change when survival is at stake. It is not a bridge too far to suggest that a reluctant Biden administration and an aggressive Xi might lead Taiwan to see the utility of a nuclear arsenal.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s also worth noting that the US has never invaded a nuclear-armed adversary\u2014a fact not lost on the Taiwanese.<\/p>\n

Many China experts in the American foreign policy community will dismiss the warning that Taiwan might restart its covert nuclear weapons program. This is because too few American China experts understand the escalating pressure Taiwan faces from Xi\u2019s China.<\/p>\n

The Biden administration has time to devise a policy that ensures Taiwan\u2019s security while discouraging the pursuit of nuclear weapons. However, half measures, ambiguity or doing nothing is no longer an option. Taiwan will protect its freedom with or without America\u2019s help.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With President-elect Joe Biden set to take office on 20 January, there\u2019s little time to formulate a China policy, though it\u2019s clear his administration\u2019s approach to Beijing could have long-term implications for stability and peace …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1295,"featured_media":61633,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,356,392],"class_list":["post-61627","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-nuclear-weapons","tag-taiwan"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWould a nuclear-armed Taiwan deter China? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/would-a-nuclear-armed-taiwan-deter-china\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Would a nuclear-armed Taiwan deter China? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"With President-elect Joe Biden set to take office on 20 January, there\u2019s little time to formulate a China policy, though it\u2019s clear his administration\u2019s approach to Beijing could have long-term implications for stability and peace ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/would-a-nuclear-armed-taiwan-deter-china\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-12-24T00:05:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-12-24T00:04:22+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/GettyImages-1229350825-e1608768091549.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"950\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"634\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Alex Littlefield\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Alex Littlefield\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/would-a-nuclear-armed-taiwan-deter-china\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/GettyImages-1229350825-e1608768091549.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/GettyImages-1229350825-e1608768091549.jpg\",\"width\":950,\"height\":634,\"caption\":\"This photo taken on October 20, 2020 shows anti-landing spikes placed along the coast of Taiwan's Kinmen islands, which lie just 3.2 kms (two miles) from the mainland China coast (in background) in the Taiwan Strait. - The tank traps on the beaches of Kinmen Island are a stark reminder that Taiwan lives under the constant threat of a Chinese invasion -- and fears of a conflict breaking out are now at their highest in decades. 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