{"id":62070,"date":"2021-01-27T12:45:00","date_gmt":"2021-01-27T01:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=62070"},"modified":"2021-01-27T12:41:37","modified_gmt":"2021-01-27T01:41:37","slug":"biden-should-follow-trumps-lead-on-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/biden-should-follow-trumps-lead-on-china\/","title":{"rendered":"Biden should follow Trump\u2019s lead on China"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

In his inaugural address<\/a>, US President Joe Biden declared that Americans \u2018will be judged\u2019 for how they \u2018resolve the cascading crises of our era\u2019. He expressed confidence that the country would \u2018rise to the occasion\u2019, and pledged that the United States would lead \u2018not merely by the example of our power but by the power of our example\u2019.<\/p>\n

The contrast with President Donald Trump\u2019s divisive, isolationist rhetoric couldn\u2019t be sharper. But adopting a different tone is easier than reversing America\u2019s relative decline. To do that, Biden will need to provide wise, forward-looking leadership. And that doesn\u2019t necessarily mean breaking with everything that Trump did.<\/p>\n

America\u2019s debilitating political polarisation has undermined its international standing. Partisan considerations have hampered\u2014even precluded\u2014the pursuit of long-term foreign policy objectives. US policy towards a declining Russia, for example, has become hostage to US domestic politics.<\/p>\n

Biden\u2019s calls for unity reflect his awareness of this. But the truth is that healing the deep rupture in US society may be beyond any president\u2019s ability, not least because so many Republican voters seem to have abandoned all faith in evidence and expertise. So, rather than becoming consumed by domestic political divisions, Biden must rise above them.<\/p>\n

And yet, there is one area where there\u2019s broad bipartisan consensus: the need to stand up to China. Trump understood this. Indeed, his tough China policy is his most consequential\u2014and constructive\u2014foreign policy legacy. Unless Biden pursues a similar approach, the erosion of US global leadership will become inexorable.<\/p>\n

The Indo-Pacific region\u2014a global economic hub and geopolitical hotspot\u2014is central to an effective China strategy. Recognising the region\u2019s immense importance to the world order, Beijing has been steadily reshaping it to serve Chinese interests, using heavy-handed economic coercion, political repression and aggressive expansionism to have its way from the Himalayas and Hong Kong to the South and East China Seas.<\/p>\n

The only way to preserve a stable regional balance of power is with a rules-based, democracy-led order\u2014or, as the Trump administration put it<\/a>, a \u2018free and open Indo-Pacific\u2019. Over the past year, this vision has spurred the region\u2019s democracies to deepen their strategic bonds and inspired<\/a> even the faraway democracies of Europe to implement supportive policies. Under the Biden administration\u2019s leadership, countries must now build on this progress, creating a true concert of democracies capable of providing stability and balance in the Indo-Pacific.<\/p>\n

Biden seems to understand this. He has made clear<\/a> his intention to build a united democratic front to counter China. But he is also at risk of undermining his own vision.<\/p>\n

For starters, Biden didn\u2019t embrace the term \u2018Indo-Pacific\u2019 until after his electoral victory, and when he did, he replaced<\/a> \u2018free and open\u2019 with \u2018secure and prosperous\u2019. But, whereas \u2018free and open\u2019 automatically implies a rules-based, democracy-led order, \u2018secure and prosperous\u2019 leaves room for the inclusion of\u2014and even leadership by\u2014autocratic regimes. This ignores the crux of the Indo-Pacific challenge: a revisionist China is actively seeking to supplant the US as the region\u2019s dominant power.<\/p>\n

Making matters worse, Biden has signalled a possible reset of ties with China. This would play right into China\u2019s hands.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s China policy was not just about trade or human rights. It sent the (right) message that China is a predatory communist state without political legitimacy or the rule of law. This helped to tip the scales in America\u2019s favour. Over the past year, unfavourable perceptions of China reached historic highs<\/a> in many countries. While this was largely because of the made-in-China<\/a> Covid-19 pandemic, Trump\u2019s ideological onslaught and China\u2019s own aggression\u2014such as on its Himalayan border<\/a> with India\u2014also played a role.<\/p>\n

If the Biden administration abandons economic decoupling and treats China as a major competitor, rather than an implacable adversary, it will tip the scales in the opposite direction, relieving pressure on Chinese President Xi Jinping\u2019s regime and undermining faith in US leadership. This could embolden Beijing to destabilise the Indo-Pacific further, with Taiwan possibly its next direct target.<\/p>\n

Moreover, US conciliation would give India second thoughts about aligning itself too closely with the US, and would likely lead to Japan\u2019s militarisation\u2014a potential game-changer in the Indo-Pacific. It would also facilitate China\u2019s efforts to leverage its vast market to draw in America\u2019s democratic allies\u2014a risk underscored<\/a> by its recent investment deal with the European Union. All of this would undermine efforts to forge the united democratic front Biden envisions, compounding the threat of China\u2019s aggressive authoritarianism.<\/p>\n

The worst choice Biden could make would be to seek shared leadership with China in the Indo-Pacific, as some<\/a> are advocating. Worryingly, Biden\u2019s team doesn\u2019t seem clear on this. In a 2019 essay<\/a>, Jake Sullivan (Biden\u2019s national security adviser) and Kurt Campbell (Biden\u2019s \u2018Indo-Pacific czar\u2019 at the National Security Council) championed \u2018coexistence with China\u2019, describing the country as \u2018an essential US partner\u2019.<\/p>\n

To be sure, Sullivan and Campbell didn\u2019t call for Sino-American joint hegemony, in the Indo-Pacific or beyond. But they also didn\u2019t take the clear and necessary position that the US must forge a concert of democracies to bring sustained multilateral pressure to bear on China.<\/p>\n

After four years of Trump, Biden is right to tout the importance of domestic unity. But a tough line on China is one of the few policy areas behind which Americans can unite. More important, it is the only way to ensure a stable Indo-Pacific and world order.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In his inaugural address, US President Joe Biden declared that Americans \u2018will be judged\u2019 for how they \u2018resolve the cascading crises of our era\u2019. He expressed confidence that the country would \u2018rise to the occasion\u2019, …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":482,"featured_media":62076,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,56,2825,2070],"class_list":["post-62070","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-indo-pacific","tag-joe-biden","tag-us-foreign-policy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBiden should follow Trump\u2019s lead on China | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/biden-should-follow-trumps-lead-on-china\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Biden should follow Trump\u2019s lead on China | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In his inaugural address, US President Joe Biden declared that Americans \u2018will be judged\u2019 for how they \u2018resolve the cascading crises of our era\u2019. 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