{"id":62223,"date":"2021-02-03T15:14:00","date_gmt":"2021-02-03T04:14:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=62223"},"modified":"2021-02-03T15:14:00","modified_gmt":"2021-02-03T04:14:00","slug":"bidens-saudi-balancing-act","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/bidens-saudi-balancing-act\/","title":{"rendered":"Biden\u2019s Saudi balancing act"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

While a great deal has been written about US President Joe Biden\u2019s Iran conundrum, there hasn\u2019t been enough discussion about his projected approach to Saudi Arabia, the other major power in the energy-rich Gulf region. In some ways, Saudi Arabia is the polar opposite of Iran. It has been a longstanding ally of the United States both in strategic terms and in the arena of oil pricing and supply.<\/p>\n

In the strategic domain, Riyadh has been Washington\u2019s principal collaborator in US efforts to contain Iran. In the energy sphere, Saudi Arabia, as the swing supplier of oil, helped keep the market on a relatively even keel by using its excess capacity to increase or reduce the flow of oil in order to try to stabilise the international economy at critical junctures.<\/p>\n

After the oil embargo of 1973, there were no visible strains in the US\u2013Saudi relationship until the signing of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), which Riyadh had initially opposed but later accepted reluctantly. The rise to power of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and his adventurist policy in Yemen has also cast a large shadow on US\u2013Saudi relations by alienating leading members of both parties in the US Congress who are appalled at the enormous human cost of the venture.<\/p>\n

US\u2013Saudi tensions were heightened in 2018 after the assassination of Washington Post<\/em> journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, which the CIA indirectly holds MbS responsible for. While the Trump administration turned a blind eye to this heinous act, criticism of the Saudi regime in Congress, the media and the general public reached new heights.<\/p>\n

Biden will have to conduct an intricate balancing act to preserve Washington\u2019s strategic relationship with Riyadh while reprimanding it for its violations of human rights. During last year\u2019s election campaign, Biden severely criticised MbS for Khashoggi\u2019s murder and declared that Saudi Arabia should be treated as \u2018a pariah\u2019 for committing this crime.<\/p>\n

During her confirmation hearings, Avril Haines, Biden\u2019s director of national intelligence, declared categorically<\/a> that she will declassify an intelligence report into the murder of Khashoggi. This means that the US is\u00a0likely to officially assign blame for Khashoggi\u2019s murder to MbS thus increasing friction between Riyadh and Washington.<\/p>\n

The Biden administration has also put on hold<\/a> the sales of precision-guided bombs to Saudi Arabia and F-35 aircraft to the United Arab Emirates, Riyadh\u2019s principal regional ally, which the Trump administration had approved during its waning days. These decisions conform to Biden\u2019s campaign pledge to ensure that American weapons aren\u2019t used in the Saudi\u2013UAE campaign in Yemen that has wreaked havoc on the country\u2019s civilian population. The new administration has also reversed Trump\u2019s decision to declare the Houthis a terrorist group because it could have highly negative consequences for the delivery of international aid to Yemen\u2019s civilian population.<\/p>\n

All of these actions point towards a major reassessment by the Biden administration of Washington\u2019s relations with the Saudi regime. But what has the Saudis and their Gulf allies most worried is Biden\u2019s explicitly stated intention of returning to the nuclear agreement<\/a> with Iran, which would entail removing the stringent sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on Tehran. Revival of the JCPOA won\u2019t be an easy matter and the new administration will have to clear major hurdles before a deal with Iran is reached. These include opposition from American lawmakers as well as the forthcoming presidential election in Iran that is likely to produce a hardline government. There\u2019s also a serious lack of trust in Iran towards the US because of Washington\u2019s unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018.<\/p>\n

There is also a wide gulf between the American demand<\/a> that Iran return to observing its obligations under the agreement before the US can contemplate removing sanctions and the Iranian expectation that the removal of sanctions and rolling back of Iranian actions would be undertaken simultaneously. However, despite these obstacles the Saudis, like the Israelis, are very worried that the US and Iran will return to the deal because of the express willingness of both governments to do so. This common concern has led to a rapprochement<\/a> between Israel and Saudi Arabia in order to present a common front on Iran before the US.<\/p>\n

Notwithstanding the prognosis that the US\u2013Saudi relationship is likely to face heavy weather under the Biden administration, Riyadh is far too important to the US for Washington to allow its ties to the kingdom to be determined by human rights concerns or its eagerness for a rapprochement with Iran. While the US is no longer dependent on Gulf oil, the importance of Saudi oil supplies for the health of the global economy on which US prosperity depends will act as a brake on the Biden administration\u2019s inclination to punish Saudi Arabia for its transgressions.<\/p>\n

Above all, the strategic importance of Saudi Arabia to the US in the context of its policy towards the Gulf region and the broader Middle East is likely to outweigh most other considerations. Under the Trump administration, the US military presence in Saudi Arabia increased manyfold<\/a>. Several thousand American troops, jet fighters and other weaponry have been stationed at Saudi Arabia\u2019s Prince Sultan Air Base\u00a0since 2019 to respond to perceived threats from Iran. This is a process not easily reversible unless US\u2013Iran relations improve radically and go beyond the nuclear deal to address Tehran\u2019s regional ambitions and its ballistic missile program. Such a scenario sounds highly unlikely in the short term, which buttresses Riyadh\u2019s strategic value for Washington.<\/p>\n

Finally, Saudi Arabia\u2019s support for the normalisation of Israel\u2019s relations with the Arab world is very important. The recent spate of Arab countries establishing diplomatic relations with Israel would be unthinkable without implicit Saudi approval and encouragement. Therefore, while US\u2013Saudi relations may have to traverse a rocky road in the immediate future, they are likely to emerge relatively unscathed in the long run.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

While a great deal has been written about US President Joe Biden\u2019s Iran conundrum, there hasn\u2019t been enough discussion about his projected approach to Saudi Arabia, the other major power in the energy-rich Gulf region. …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":589,"featured_media":62225,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2825,218,1078,31],"class_list":["post-62223","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-joe-biden","tag-middle-east","tag-saudi-arabia","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBiden\u2019s Saudi balancing act | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/bidens-saudi-balancing-act\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Biden\u2019s Saudi balancing act | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"While a great deal has been written about US President Joe Biden\u2019s Iran conundrum, there hasn\u2019t been enough discussion about his projected approach to Saudi Arabia, the other major power in the energy-rich Gulf region. ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/bidens-saudi-balancing-act\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-02-03T04:14:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/GettyImages-1048899574.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"788\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Mohammed Ayoob\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Mohammed Ayoob\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/bidens-saudi-balancing-act\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/GettyImages-1048899574.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/GettyImages-1048899574.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":788,\"caption\":\"A demonstrator dressed as Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (C) with blood on his hands protests outside the Saudi Embassy in Washington, DC, on October 8, 2018, demanding justice for missing Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. - US President Donald Trump said October 10, 2018 he has talked to Saudi authorities \\\"at the highest level\\\" to demand answers over what happened to missing journalist Jamal Khashoggi. 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