{"id":62296,"date":"2021-02-08T11:00:14","date_gmt":"2021-02-08T00:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=62296"},"modified":"2021-02-08T10:09:47","modified_gmt":"2021-02-07T23:09:47","slug":"us-sanctions-on-myanmar-would-play-into-chinas-hands","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-sanctions-on-myanmar-would-play-into-chinas-hands\/","title":{"rendered":"US sanctions on Myanmar would play into China\u2019s hands"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Directly or indirectly, the military has always called the shots<\/a> in Myanmar. And now that it has removed the decade-old facade of gradual democratisation by detaining civilian leaders and seizing power, Western calls to punish the country with sanctions and international isolation are growing louder. Heeding them would be a mistake.<\/p>\n

The retreat of the \u2018Myanmar spring\u2019 means all the countries of continental Southeast Asia\u2014Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam and Myanmar\u2014are under authoritarian rule, like their giant northern neighbour, China. More fundamentally, the reversal of democratisation in Myanmar is a reminder that democracy is unlikely to take root where authoritarian leaders and institutions remain deeply entrenched.<\/p>\n

Given this, a punitive approach would merely express democratic countries\u2019 disappointment, at the cost of stymying Myanmar\u2019s economic liberalisation, impeding the development of its civil society, and reversing its shift towards closer engagement with democratic powers. And, as in the past, the brunt of sanctions would be borne by ordinary citizens, not the generals.<\/p>\n

This is a realistic scenario. US President Joe Biden has warned<\/a> that the military\u2019s action \u2018will necessitate an immediate review of our sanctions laws\u2019, followed by \u2018appropriate action\u2019. But Biden would do well to consider how US-led sanctions in the past pushed Myanmar into China\u2019s strategic lap, exacerbating regional security challenges.<\/p>\n

Sanctions are a blunt instrument. Thailand\u2019s army chief, with the support of an increasingly unpopular king, has remained ensconced in power in civilian garb since staging a coup in 2014. If the United States can do business<\/a> with Thailand, where a crackdown<\/a> on pro-democracy protesters has extended to the use of a feared l\u00e8se-majest\u00e9 law to imprison those who insult the royal family, why hold neighboring Myanmar to a higher standard?<\/p>\n

Likewise, the US, India, Japan and others have established close defence ties with communist-ruled Vietnam. Indeed, the US boasts that in recent years it has established a \u2018robust security partnership<\/a>\u2019 with Vietnam. Only by opening lines of communication and cooperation with Myanmar\u2019s generals can democratic powers hope to influence developments in a strategically important country.<\/p>\n

In the past decade, as Myanmar\u2019s democratic transition unfolded, the West neglected to build close relations with the force behind it\u2014the military. Instead, the prevailing Anglo-American approach centered on Aung San Suu Kyi, making her bigger than the cause. That neglect persisted even after Suu Kyi fell from grace over the fate of the country\u2019s Rohingya Muslims<\/a>, many of whom fled to Bangladesh and some to India during a brutal military campaign to flush out jihadist militants waging hit-and-run attacks.<\/p>\n

The West\u2019s lopsided approach eventually contributed to this month\u2019s coup. Today, the US has little influence over Myanmar\u2019s military. The coup leader, General Min Aung Hlaing, and his deputy, General Soe Win, were slapped<\/a> with US sanctions 14 months ago over the expulsion of the Rohingya. But in responding to the mass detention of Muslims in Xinjiang that it labels \u2018genocide<\/a>\u2019, the US has spared top Chinese military and party officials, imposing largely symbolic sanctions<\/a> against lower-ranking functionaries.<\/p>\n

Despite their uneven effectiveness and unpredictable consequences, sanctions have remained a favorite\u2014and grossly overused\u2014instrument of Western diplomacy, especially when dealing with the small kids on the global bloc. Non-Western democracies, in contrast, prefer constructive engagement.<\/p>\n

Japan, for example, has a partnership program with Myanmar\u2019s military that includes capacity-building support and training. Likewise, India\u2019s defence ties with Myanmar extend to joint exercises and operations and supply of military hardware; recently, it gave its neighbour<\/a> its first submarine. Such ties also seek to counter China\u2019s supply of arms and other aid<\/a> to Indian tribal insurgents through rebel-controlled northern Myanmar.<\/p>\n

Sanctions without engagement have never worked. In 2010, while the US was pursuing a sanctions-only approach to Myanmar, President Barack Obama criticised India\u2019s policy of constructive engagement with that country. But within months, Obama embarked on a virtually similar policy, which led to his historic visit to Myanmar in 2012.<\/p>\n

Crippling US-led sanctions from the late 1980s paved the way for China to become Myanmar\u2019s dominant trading partner and investor. But in 2011, Myanmar\u2019s bold suspension of a controversial Chinese megaproject, the Myitsone Dam, became a watershed moment<\/a> for the country\u2019s democratic opening. It set in motion developments that reduced Myanmar\u2019s dependence on China, balanced its foreign policy and spurred domestic reforms.<\/p>\n

Today, nothing would serve Chinese interests more than new US-led efforts to isolate Myanmar, which serves China as a strategic gateway to the Indian Ocean and important source of natural resources. In fact, renewed sanctions and isolation would likely turn Myanmar into another Chinese satellite, like Laos, Cambodia and Pakistan. As Japan\u2019s state minister for defence, Yasuhide Nakayama, has warned<\/a>, that outcome would \u2018pose a risk to the security of the region\u2019.<\/p>\n

US policymakers must not ignore how often American sanctions against other countries have worked to China\u2019s advantage. They should perhaps be most worried by how sanctions have forced Russia to pivot to China, turning two natural competitors into becoming close strategic partners. And China has been the main trade and investment beneficiary of US sanctions against Iran.<\/p>\n

In this light, the US must take a prudent approach to Myanmar. When Biden has expressed<\/a> a readiness to cooperate with the world\u2019s largest autocracy, China, in areas of mutual interest, he should at least pursue a similar approach with a far weaker Myanmar, where the military is the only functioning institution.<\/p>\n

To help influence Myanmar\u2019s trajectory, Biden has little choice but to address what US officials have recognised<\/a> as a weak spot in American policy\u2014lack of ties with the country\u2019s strongly nationalist military. The US must not turn Myanmar from a partner into a pariah again.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Directly or indirectly, the military has always called the shots in Myanmar. And now that it has removed the decade-old facade of gradual democratisation by detaining civilian leaders and seizing power, Western calls to punish …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":482,"featured_media":62300,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,212,379,2070],"class_list":["post-62296","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-myanmar","tag-sanctions","tag-us-foreign-policy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUS sanctions on Myanmar would play into China\u2019s hands | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-sanctions-on-myanmar-would-play-into-chinas-hands\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US sanctions on Myanmar would play into China\u2019s hands | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Directly or indirectly, the military has always called the shots in Myanmar. 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