{"id":62523,"date":"2021-02-17T06:00:51","date_gmt":"2021-02-16T19:00:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=62523"},"modified":"2021-02-16T17:41:40","modified_gmt":"2021-02-16T06:41:40","slug":"the-quads-future-as-a-collaborative-defence-arrangement","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-quads-future-as-a-collaborative-defence-arrangement\/","title":{"rendered":"The Quad\u2019s future as a collaborative defence arrangement"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The effectiveness with which Russia and China have been able to exploit situations to make territorial gains has exposed a chronic vulnerability for collective defence regimes. Collective defence risks becoming unfit for an era of strategic competition in the grey zone.<\/p>\n

The Quad implicitly acknowledges this and has developed as a collaborative defence arrangement that can respond to the sorts of threats China poses.<\/p>\n

For the Quad to succeed in this way, Australia, India, Japan and the US will need to work together using force\u2014or tactics that sit above or slightly below the threshold of armed conflict\u2014to block Chinese attempts to seize territory. They\u2019ll also need a coherent strategy to counter China\u2019s other activities below the threshold of armed conflict.<\/p>\n

This will require a broad understanding of defence using different elements of national power to counter a range of coercive threats. Each member will need to understand which levers should be pulled at what times in a coherent strategy that thwarts Beijing\u2019s ability to achieve its political objectives at each stage of competition or conflict.<\/p>\n

The more coercive the power China mobilises, the fewer levers of national power the Quad members would need to pull. In a hypothetical example in the first part<\/a> of this series, I described how Quad members might develop an effective military response to a Chinese attempt to seize Pratas Island from Taiwan. In that case, the four members of the Quad would be pulling down heavily on the military levers of national power\u2014albeit at different stages of the conflict and in different theatres.<\/p>\n

Responding to the most coercive of China\u2019s threats is the easiest part of the Quad\u2019s job. It gets harder if China mobilises less coercive power when threatening the Quad\u2019s interests in the Indo-Pacific. This is where the distinction between collective defence and collaborative defence becomes key.<\/p>\n

Over time, China has reclaimed land and transformed islands into military facilities that have increased its ability to project power across the Western Pacific. This has raised the costs for the US to defend its treaty allies, which undermines its presence in Asia.<\/p>\n

For Japan and Australia, China\u2019s South China Sea facilities pose a threat to the freedom of navigation each relies on for trade.<\/p>\n

In India, the stakes may not be as high, but any erosion of international norms in the South China Sea would set an unwelcome precedent as the Chinese military increases its presence in the Indian Ocean. So far, the differing stakes for each country in the Quad have made a collective response impossible.<\/p>\n

However, an effective response to China\u2019s grey-zone coercion need not be \u2018collective\u2019. In 2017, Ely Ratner, Biden\u2019s top China adviser<\/a> at the Pentagon, argued<\/a> in Foreign Affairs<\/em> that the US should \u00a0\u2018abandon its neutrality and help countries in the region defend their claims\u2019.<\/p>\n

Ratner suggested that the US help treaty allies such as the Philippines with joint land-reclamation projects, increased arms sales and improved basing access. Other Quad members would also need to draw upon their own bilateral partnerships to help claimant states build resilience to Beijing\u2019s grey-zone operations. The Quad would be a subtle means of helping Southeast Asian claimants defend their sovereignty against China\u2019s creeping expansionism.<\/p>\n

Ratner\u2019s proposal shows collaborative defence in action with the aid of the Indo-Pacific\u2019s established great power. While Washington is laying the groundwork to compete with China in the grey zone, Australia could strengthen its maritime capacity-building initiatives and joint naval exercises with Malaysia and Indonesia in archipelagic Southeast Asia.<\/p>\n

India<\/a> and Japan<\/a> could each increase the frequency of their bilateral naval exercises with Vietnam. The Quad could agree to conduct Exercise Malabar in the South China Sea, while members of the \u2018blue dot network<\/a>\u2019 could jointly finance critical infrastructure projects in littoral states. An effective strategy would require each Quad member to use a mix of diplomacy, aid, military exchanges, arms sales, joint exercises and new basing infrastructure.<\/p>\n

None of these initiatives will achieve results immediately, but nor did China\u2019s island-building campaign. Over time, each initiative will shift the burden of escalation back to China. With each Quad member working independently and collaboratively to embolden claimant states to defend their maritime rights, Beijing will incur new risks when rotating new fighters on Fiery Cross Reef or contemplating further incursions into the Natuna Islands.<\/p>\n

Collaboration will allow each Quad member to find out how best to draw on its bilateral partnerships to embolden claimant states to defend their interests. The Quad will be invisible, but omnipresent in Southeast Asia. That\u2019s precisely the threat that Beijing doesn\u2019t want to deal with.<\/p>\n

To succeed as a collaborative defence arrangement, the Quad needs to be guided by three principles. Its members need to work independently on their bilateral relationships to improve claimant states\u2019 ability to defend their interests; they must exercise together whenever strategic circumstances require it; and they need to share notes on regional strategy, knowing it will be much harder for China to secure further territorial gains if it\u2019s on the back foot.<\/p>\n

Adhering to these principles will enable the Quad to realise its potential as a collaborative defence arrangement that can counter China\u2019s grey-zone operations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The effectiveness with which Russia and China have been able to exploit situations to make territorial gains has exposed a chronic vulnerability for collective defence regimes. 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