{"id":62698,"date":"2021-02-24T11:47:44","date_gmt":"2021-02-24T00:47:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=62698"},"modified":"2021-02-24T11:47:44","modified_gmt":"2021-02-24T00:47:44","slug":"nuclear-warfare-or-cyber-warfare-which-is-the-bigger-threat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/nuclear-warfare-or-cyber-warfare-which-is-the-bigger-threat\/","title":{"rendered":"Nuclear warfare or cyber warfare: which is the bigger threat?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

A strategist provides the decision-maker with at least three options: the most likely option, the least likely option and the most dangerous option. This methodology applies to all strategists, regardless of their discipline\u2014national security, diplomacy, economics, health care, home affairs. The essence of their tradecraft is to analyse, assess and advise so leaders can make informed decisions\u2014and then act.<\/p>\n

For those who grew up during the Cold War and its dogma of mutually assured destruction (MAD) between the Soviets and the US, nuclear weapons were the world\u2019s most destructive threat. Without question, for most strategists, they were the most dangerous option and, on several occasions, also the most likely option.<\/p>\n

Still today, there\u2019s no denying the catastrophic effect of a nuclear weapon. However, to a nation such as Australia, is the detonation of a nuclear device our most likely threat? Our most dangerous threat?<\/p>\n

We live in an age of cybernetics and the \u2018internet of everything\u2019. All things seem to be connected and dependent on digital technologies, and those dependencies disrupt all aspects of truth and veracity. Smartphones, messaging apps and social media shape our public, political and national security environments, to the point that we must ask ourselves as a nation: What\u2019s the most likely and what\u2019s the most dangerous threat to our sovereignty? Is it a nuclear detonation, a physical invasion, or something else?<\/p>\n

Nuclear weapons remain the most physically destructive instruments of war ever invented, but, as the Cold War showed, they also have a stabilising effect because they make conflict escalation, potentially, too costly. In many respects, the fear of MAD remains the check and balance for those nations with a nuclear capability today.<\/p>\n

In addition, due to MAD\u2019s global implications, a robust indications and warning system, especially among the Five Eyes nations, to monitor and detect activities associated with nuclear devices\u2014be it armament, delivery system or development\u2014is in place. Even the threat of a \u2018loose nuke\u2019 or a terrorist\u2019s \u2018dirty bomb\u2019 is scrutinised almost hourly by those in Russell and the Pentagon, and tabletop exercises to prepare them for the most likely and most dangerous options occur regularly. The fact is, a Cuban missile crisis\u2013type event is not Australia\u2019s, or its Five Eyes partners\u2019, most likely threat now or in the near term.<\/p>\n

If not a nuclear or physical threat, then, what is the most likely threat to Australia? Is it the release of a chemical or biological weapon, such as Covid-19, if it\u2019s done with malice and forethought by a nation-state or a terrorist group? What about the threat from cyberattacks or information warfare? Could implanting malware like WannaCry, which crippled the UK\u2019s national healthcare system, or NotPetya, which affected the power-distribution systems of the Netherlands and Ukraine, be construed as being as destructive to a nation as a nuclear blast? Or what about Secondary Infektion, which used social media to incite public and political discontent in Europe and the US?<\/p>\n

Most strategists would argue that biological or information warfare is in the \u2018grey zone\u2019 of conflict, referring to it as hybrid or political warfare. But is a Twitter or malware bomb any less destructive in its magnitude of effects than a nuclear bomb? Is destructive power in 2021 based solely on kinetic yield? How do you measure the \u2018fallout\u2019 from attacks like WannaCry or Secondary Infektion and their non-kinetic effects on globalisation, economies, governance and healthcare systems?<\/p>\n

In 2021, the Five Eyes\u2019 adversaries are truly embracing the Clauzwitzian adage that \u2018war is politics by other means\u2019. Instead of being fixated on enriching uranium and deploying mobile nuclear delivery systems, they\u2019re focused on weaponising the other components of national power\u2014diplomacy, information, culture, economics and the rule of law. They\u2019re employing innovative combinations of economic espionage and supply-chain manipulation to access our critical infrastructures. They steal our intellectual property and industrial secrets through malicious influence campaigns using information operations and political subversion to sow divisions in our society, undermine confidence in our democratic institutions and weaken our alliances.<\/p>\n

Today, we are more likely to be affected by the burst effects of a Twitter or malware blast much more than by a nuclear or conventional blast. Even more alarming is that, unlike the indications and alerts associated with a nuclear attack, all a nation-state or terrorist group needs is access to an internet connection and some disruptive messaging or malware and the strike can commence with virtually no warning. The fact\u00a0is that\u00a0Australia\u2019s adversaries are effectively utilising the entire spectrum of conflict to pursue their national interests against us, carefully weighing their objectives while avoiding direct military action. To them, violating our nation\u2019s sovereign cyberspace or electromagnetic spectrum is not considered an aggressive act. Why? Because we continually allow them to do it. But how is that different from violating our territorial waters or airspace?<\/p>\n

So, in 2021, Australia\u2019s most likely threat is probably from an information-warfare system, such as a Twitter or malware bomb. Its least likely threat: an atomic or physical attack. And its most dangerous threat: leaders and decision-makers who fail to act on that which is most likely.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A strategist provides the decision-maker with at least three options: the most likely option, the least likely option and the most dangerous option. This methodology applies to all strategists, regardless of their discipline\u2014national security, diplomacy, …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":771,"featured_media":51451,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[391,381,2122,224],"class_list":["post-62698","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-cyber","tag-information-warfare","tag-nuclear","tag-social-media"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNuclear warfare or cyber warfare: which is the bigger threat? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/nuclear-warfare-or-cyber-warfare-which-is-the-bigger-threat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Nuclear warfare or cyber warfare: which is the bigger threat? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A strategist provides the decision-maker with at least three options: the most likely option, the least likely option and the most dangerous option. 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