{"id":63356,"date":"2021-03-24T10:45:06","date_gmt":"2021-03-23T23:45:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=63356"},"modified":"2021-03-24T10:41:28","modified_gmt":"2021-03-23T23:41:28","slug":"biden-must-act-quickly-to-salvage-iran-nuclear-deal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/biden-must-act-quickly-to-salvage-iran-nuclear-deal\/","title":{"rendered":"Biden must act quickly to salvage Iran nuclear deal"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Former US president Donald Trump\u2019s \u2018maximum pressure\u2019 campaign against Iran utterly failed to enhance regional or global security. His successor, Joe Biden, must not make the same mistake.<\/p>\n

The centrepiece of Trump\u2019s Iran policy was his unilateral withdrawal of the United States from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action\u2014or JCPOA, widely known as the Iran nuclear deal\u2014in 2018. This move, directly and aggressively promoted by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, enabled the US to reimpose severe sanctions on Iran.<\/p>\n

At the time, Iran was in full compliance with the JCPOA\u2019s conditions, and it remained in compliance for a full year after Trump\u2019s decision took effect, to give Europe a chance to uphold its pledge to bypass US sanctions. But Europe didn\u2019t follow through, so Iran began to break the rules.<\/p>\n

Now, as an outgoing deputy chief of Mossad recently noted<\/a>, the situation is worse than it was when the JCPOA was signed. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken believes<\/a> that Iran is only months away from being able to produce enough fissile material to build a nuclear weapon. If it continues to raise limits imposed by the JCPOA, it could get there in \u2018a matter of weeks\u2019.<\/p>\n

And yet, far from learning its lesson, Israel\u2014together with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates\u2014wants Biden to maintain Trump\u2019s failed policy. In January, Israel\u2019s military chief, Lieutenant General Aviv Kochavi, warned<\/a> the Biden administration against rejoining the JCPOA, even if its terms were toughened. He also announced that Israeli forces are stepping up preparations for possible offensive action against Iran this year.<\/p>\n

For Iran\u2019s neighbours, a US\u2013Iran d\u00e9tente that doesn\u2019t address Tehran\u2019s ballistic-missile program and support for proxies across the Middle East is a nightmare scenario. They fear that once tensions with Iran are defused, the US is likely to shift its focus away from the Middle East. The US global posture review now being prepared by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will likely reaffirm<\/a> this prospect.<\/p>\n

Against this background, it would be unwise to pursue French President Emanuel Macron\u2019s suggestion<\/a> that Saudi Arabia and other regional actors be involved in any new negotiations about the JCPOA. Of course, Saudi Arabia\u2014which, along with the United Arab Emirates, has demanded the Gulf states\u2019 involvement\u2014welcomed Macron\u2019s call. But, as Iran recognises, this is a sure route to diplomatic failure and the perpetuation of conflict.<\/p>\n

Without these countries acting as spoilers, there\u2019s a chance of success. To be sure, domestic politics will limit Iran\u2019s ability to accept changes to the original agreement. Years of devastating sanctions\u2014together with America\u2019s assassination of General Qassem Suleimani, Iran\u2019s most powerful military commander, in January 2020 and Israel\u2019s covert operations inside the country\u2014have boosted Iran\u2019s hawks, who performed strongly in last year\u2019s parliamentary election.<\/p>\n

In fact, days after the Suleimani strike, Iran launched missiles at US forces in Iraq, wounding more than 100 troops. Similar rocket attacks were launched<\/a> this month, following US strikes on Iran-backed militias at the Syria\u2013Iraq border. This, together with persistent attacks on Saudi Arabia by Yemen\u2019s Iran-backed Houthi rebels, suggests that Iran has no intention of allowing the showdown over the JCPOA to hamper its regional power plays.<\/p>\n

All great revolutions aspire to secure their legacy through expansion. For Iran, the imperative is to protect its credibility not only among its citizens, but also among the proxies that channel its influence in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. That is why so many powerful voices in Iran will oppose returning even to the 2015 agreement: nuclear capabilities are regime insurance. The US doesn\u2019t wage wars against nuclear powers.<\/p>\n

Yet Iran has hardly shut the door on the JCPOA. On the contrary, it recently signalled its enduring willingness to compromise, by agreeing<\/a> to hold for three months recordings from monitoring equipment installed at nuclear sites by the International Atomic Energy Agency. If the US rolls back sanctions within that timeframe, the recordings will be released. (Iran had previously decided that, unless US sanctions were lifted by 21 February, intrusive checks of its nuclear sites would be banned.)<\/p>\n

The Biden administration should use this window of opportunity to secure a straightforward agreement: the US lifts sanctions in exchange for Iran\u2019s compliance with JCPOA restrictions on its nuclear activities. This would significantly bolster the moderate President Hassan Rouhani\u2019s position vis-\u00e0-vis his hardline challenger, Hossein Dehghan, in this June\u2019s presidential election.<\/p>\n

But this would not be enough to mitigate the risk of a regionwide conflagration. For that, the US would have to negotiate a \u2018phase two\u2019 agreement that addresses Iran\u2019s ballistic-missile program and support for non-state actors across the Middle East, in addition to the JCPOA\u2019s \u2018sunset clause\u2019, which would lift restrictions on Iran\u2019s nuclear enrichment program after 2025.<\/p>\n

Given China\u2019s massive investments in\u2014and energy dependence on\u2014the Middle East, it could be a useful ally in this effort. Already, China has proposed<\/a> establishing a designated forum, in which Gulf countries can address regional security issues, including compliance with the JCPOA.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s reason to think that Saudi Arabia and the UAE\u2014which, despite their large military budgets<\/a>, can\u2019t afford a full-scale war with Iran\u2014would be willing to reach some kind of negotiated regional settlement within such a forum. As both countries set their sights<\/a> on nuclear power, a non-proliferation scheme may also be a possibility.<\/p>\n

Israel, however, would be excluded from this forum. In any case, it is highly unlikely to engage in negotiations with Iran. Responsibility for reining it in thus falls to the US. To that end, Biden should address Israel\u2019s security concerns and expand the multilateral process to address Israel\u2019s core strategic interests in Syria and Lebanon.<\/p>\n

None of this will be easy. But a two-phase agreement is the best bet for the US, the region and the world.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Former US president Donald Trump\u2019s \u2018maximum pressure\u2019 campaign against Iran utterly failed to enhance regional or global security. His successor, Joe Biden, must not make the same mistake. The centrepiece of Trump\u2019s Iran policy was …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":484,"featured_media":60938,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[247,1883,2825,218],"class_list":["post-63356","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-iran","tag-jcpoa","tag-joe-biden","tag-middle-east"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBiden must act quickly to salvage Iran nuclear deal | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/biden-must-act-quickly-to-salvage-iran-nuclear-deal\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Biden must act quickly to salvage Iran nuclear deal | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Former US president Donald Trump\u2019s \u2018maximum pressure\u2019 campaign against Iran utterly failed to enhance regional or global security. 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