{"id":63461,"date":"2021-03-29T06:00:49","date_gmt":"2021-03-28T19:00:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=63461"},"modified":"2021-03-28T14:26:09","modified_gmt":"2021-03-28T03:26:09","slug":"indo-pacific-views-from-tokyo-to-tonga","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/indo-pacific-views-from-tokyo-to-tonga\/","title":{"rendered":"Indo-Pacific views from Tokyo to Tonga"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"708\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-63463\" src=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/miraikanearth2603.jpg\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/miraikanearth2603.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/miraikanearth2603-205x145.jpg 205w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/miraikanearth2603-768x544.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/figure>\n<blockquote><p>\u2018Global strategic focus has shifted to the Indo-Pacific. How the region handles the next few years will determine if it becomes the cradle of crises or solutions.\u2019<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\">\u2014 Cleo Paskal, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.chathamhouse.org\/2021\/03\/indo-pacific-strategies-perceptions-and-partnerships\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Indo-Pacific strategies, perceptions and partnerships<\/em><\/a>, Chatham House, March 2021<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Editors often conjure a good yarn on a big issue by dispatching journalists out to different places to ask the same question.<\/p>\n<p>The contrasts and rhymes of diverse pubs, parishes and peoples do the alchemy, pulling the story together. Travel the miles and spend the time. Repeating a good question all over the place can turn up gold. It works as well for an academic research paper as a TV documentary.<\/p>\n<p>Chatham House has just done this with a question for our times: the meaning and purposes of the Indo-Pacific. You\u2019ll not be surprised that China looms large in the answer.<\/p>\n<p>Chatham House talked to 200 experts in seven countries: the US, the UK, France, India, Tonga, Japan and China, recounted in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.chathamhouse.org\/2021\/03\/indo-pacific-strategies-perceptions-and-partnerships\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Indo-Pacific strategies, perceptions and partnerships<\/em><\/a>, by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.chathamhouse.org\/about-us\/our-people\/cleo-paskal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Cleo Paskal<\/a>. The story she tells is how six nations regard the seventh, China.<\/p>\n<p>The six aren\u2019t as one on what the \u2018Indo-Pacific\u2019 <em>is<\/em> (the French policy community, characteristically, wants the term more clearly defined, while their Indian counterparts see benefits in ambiguity), but the six know what the construct is <em>about<\/em>: \u2018[A]ll agree, to\u00a0some degree or\u00a0another, that the primary driver of\u00a0increasing interest in\u00a0the Indo-Pacific is\u00a0China\u2019s growing economic and\u00a0strategic expansion.\u2019<\/p>\n<p>Looking out to 2024, the survey found three major themes:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Domestic division<\/b>\u2014<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A constant in the six was concern that their national policies were fracturing over China, along the economic\u2013security divide: \u2018This fracture was impeding decisive and focused decision-making.\u2019<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>An \u2018extraordinary\u2019 amount of uncertainty<\/b>\u2014<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the words of one US participant, \u2018[T]here are more balls in the air than at any time since World War II.\u2019<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Hedging between the US and China<\/b>\u2014<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The aim is to keep options as open as possible, but \u2018the general sentiment was that, by 2024, hedging would be coming to an end as both Beijing and Washington increased pressure\u2019.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The shock of the pandemic and the cascading impacts of China have united polities. Domestic divisions have diminished, Paskal writes, with more willingness to push back:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The pandemic has had such a\u00a0severe economic effect in\u00a0all six countries that the cost of\u00a0some sort of\u00a0\u2019decoupling\u2019 from China can appear relatively minor in\u00a0comparison. It\u00a0seems less of\u00a0an issue to\u00a0rock the economic boat if\u00a0that boat is\u00a0already sinking.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The power of China and the expanding construct of the Indo-Pacific demand a response from even small capitals like Nuku\u2018alofa. Tonga switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in 1998, has substantial loans from Beijing, and joined the Belt and Road Initiative.<\/p>\n<p>Paskal describes Tonga as \u2018a\u00a0clear example of\u00a0increased strategic interest in\u00a0Oceania, with the UK\u00a0reopening its diplomatic mission there, Japan stepping up\u00a0military engagement, and the US\u00a0offering the country a\u00a0partnership with the Nevada National Guard\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>For Nuku\u2018alofa, the surge in interest provides \u2018more options\u2019, which is the classic South Pacific stance. International interest means more potential donors; the skill is to play with all suitors, never settling for one. The more the merrier\u2014Tonga wants to add India to the mix\u2014is the established formula to achieve a balance between \u2018partnerships and independence\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>On the other side of the world, France is\u00a0\u2018one of\u00a0the least divided and most certain countries\u2019 because its economic, political and defence outlooks are \u2018closely aligned\u2019. The aim is to shape its own Indo-Pacific reality, \u2018unabashedly built around pragmatic French interests\u2019. Paris may not be\u00a0able to\u00a0engage as\u00a0widely in the Indo-Pacific, but it\u2019s \u2018likely to\u00a0engage more deeply\u2019. President Emmanuel Macron\u2019s vision of\u00a0a\u00a0\u2018Paris\u2013Delhi\u2013Canberra axis\u2019 reaches into the Quad while not being in the Quad.<\/p>\n<p>UK\u00a0foreign policy is \u2018undergoing epochal change\u2019 and a \u2018fundamental reassessment\u2019. London\u2019s view of China has toughened over Hong Kong and Huawei. The UK\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/publications\/global-britain-in-a-competitive-age-the-integrated-review-of-security-defence-development-and-foreign-policy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">integrated review<\/a> promises to deepen \u2018engagement in the Indo-Pacific, establishing a greater and more <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-does-the-uks-integrated-review-mean-for-the-indo-pacific\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">persistent presence<\/a> than any other European country\u2019. Weigh that ambition against this comment on interviews in London: \u2018When foreign policy participants were asked if\u00a0the UK\u00a0was a\u00a0great power, there was\u00a0often an\u00a0awkward pause, followed by\u00a0a\u00a0variation on\u00a0\u201cnot really\u201d.\u2019<\/p>\n<p>Japan has the opposite problem: it\u2019s a big player with the polite mien of a middle power. Paskal reckons a loss of trust in China as a long-term investment could substantially shift Tokyo\u2019s position. But she ends with the familiar problem of whether Japan will step up as a big power or merely decline and recline:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>It\u00a0is possible that Japan will increasingly line up\u00a0with its allies and partners in\u00a0a\u00a0stronger, rounded stance against Beijing. However, it\u00a0is also possible that domestic economic and political lobbies will successfully weaken any effective pushback on\u00a0China. Much will depend on\u00a0the direction taken by\u00a0Washington, and how that affects Tokyo.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>India\u2019s tone \u2018has shifted substantially\u2019, with much less hesitation in embracing the Quad. Paskal notes calls for an\u00a0India\u2013US \u2018alliance\u2019\u2014though not the sort of\u00a0alliance \u2018recognized by\u00a0lawyers\u2019 but the sort \u2018recognized by\u00a0generals\u2019. The June 2020 border conflict in the Himalayas saw popular opinion turn strongly against China:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>A\u00a0series of\u00a0decisive actions took place, including banning Chinese apps on\u00a0security grounds, restrictions on foreign direct investment, restrictions on\u00a0visas for certain Chinese people, and\u00a0a\u00a0shift to\u00a0a\u00a0more forceful military strategy.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>For India, as with everyone else, hedging behaviour is turning prickly, because the hedging space is contracting. \u2018Countries are being forced to pick a side,\u2019 Paskal writes, predicting \u2018a\u00a0new era of\u00a0alliances and partnerships\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>The conclusion is a call for an Indo-Pacific charter, expressing a consensus on\u00a0acceptable behaviour, rules and norms:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>An\u00a0Indo-Pacific Charter is\u00a0one way to\u00a0reduce domestic division, uncertainty and hedging by\u00a0making clear internally and internationally what nations that sign stand for, in\u00a0the same way as\u00a0the Atlantic Charter did in\u00a01941 &#8230; [T]he goal would be\u00a0to create partnerships strong enough, and with enough levers (including economic), to\u00a0dissuade nations that want to\u00a0dominate unilaterally. That could mean economic boycotts or\u00a0supply-chain redirecting, rather than naval blockades.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u2018Global strategic focus has shifted to the Indo-Pacific. How the region handles the next few years will determine if it becomes the cradle of crises or solutions.\u2019 \u2014 Cleo Paskal, Indo-Pacific strategies, perceptions and partnerships, &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":63463,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[56,2328,2380],"class_list":["post-63461","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-indo-pacific","tag-quad","tag-us-china-relations"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Indo-Pacific views from Tokyo to Tonga | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/indo-pacific-views-from-tokyo-to-tonga\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Indo-Pacific views from Tokyo to Tonga | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u2018Global strategic focus has shifted to the Indo-Pacific. 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