{"id":63603,"date":"2021-04-06T06:00:23","date_gmt":"2021-04-05T20:00:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=63603"},"modified":"2021-04-05T19:15:42","modified_gmt":"2021-04-05T09:15:42","slug":"fourteen-points-on-australias-icy-times-with-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/fourteen-points-on-australias-icy-times-with-china\/","title":{"rendered":"Fourteen points on Australia\u2019s icy times with China"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Here are 14 points on the longest icy age between Australia and China since diplomatic relations were established nearly 50 years ago.<\/p>\n

The 14 points match the number\u2014but not spirit\u2014of the Chinese embassy\u2019s 14 angry charges<\/a> against Australia.<\/p>\n

Australia knows an \u2018assertive China is the new constant\u2019<\/a>. As our top diplomat noted<\/a> in 2019, the \u2018new normal\u2019 of Australia\u2019s dealings with China will be marked by \u2018enduring differences\u2019.<\/p>\n

1. Australia\u2019s choice:<\/strong> In the rolling seminar on China as the phenomenon of the age, the Oz polity has abandoned the hopeful line that \u2018there\u2019s no question to answer, no choice necessary\u2019<\/a>. Hedging became so prickly it wasn\u2019t a strategy. Canberra has drawn lines, said no, and pushed back in a cascade of wake-up moments<\/a>. The cumulative effect is to deliver a choice. While Southeast Asia argues it mustn\u2019t be forced to choose, Australia goes to a different place. The terms of Australia\u2019s choice evolve and shift. Yet nuances<\/a> have been stripped away and language becomes blunter: Australia now talks about China as a\u00a0bully <\/a>and a potential adversary<\/a>.<\/p>\n

2. Icy age<\/strong><\/a>:<\/strong> The latest icy time <\/a>with <\/a>China<\/a>\u00a0will soon enter its fifth year. Previous cold spells\u2014under the Hawke, Howard and Rudd<\/a> governments\u2014were short because economic interests quickly rewarmed relations. Today\u2019s iciness delivers frigid diplomacy, chilled strategic perspectives, and frost bite for Oz exporters. Beijing isn\u2019t returning calls. No senior Chinese leader has come to Australia since March 2017. The icy starting point was Malcolm Turnbull\u2019s speech in June 2017 expressing a \u2018dark view\u2019<\/a> of a \u2018coercive China\u2019 seeking domination.<\/p>\n

3. Death of \u2018strategic partnership\u2019:<\/strong> Australia signed up to strategic partnership during the Gillard Labor government, accepting China\u2019s \u2018strategic partnership\u2019 wording \u2018in order to get them to give us guaranteed annual leaders\u2019 meetings\u2019<\/a>. In February, Prime Minister Scott Morrison bid adieu<\/a> to strategic partnership:<\/p>\n

China\u2019s outlook and the nature of China\u2019s external engagement, both in our region and globally, has changed since our Comprehensive Strategic Partnership was formed and going further back than that, certainly in the decades that have led up till now. We cannot pretend that things are as they were. The world has changed.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

4. China\u2019s trade punishment:<\/strong> The retribution that began last year cut the value of Australian trade with China for almost all industries by 40%<\/a> (only China\u2019s huge appetite for iron ore sustains the trade figures). Australia\u2019s ambassador to Beijing, Graham Fletcher, says China \u2018has been exposed as quite unreliable as a trading partner and even vindictive<\/a>\u2019.<\/p>\n

5. Labor\u2013Liberal tacit consensus:<\/strong> Labor backs the Morrison government in facing China. Labor\u2019s hits are on tactics and competence, not the nature of the choice. All the attack lines in opposition leader Anthony Albanese\u2019s start-of-the-year foreign policy speech<\/a> were about how badly Morrison had handled Donald Trump. Albanese said Australia should stand with the new Biden administration to both challenge and coexist with China.<\/p>\n

6. China\u2019s 14 charges<\/a>: <\/strong>The rap sheet is classic China: it\u2019s all Australia\u2019s fault<\/a>. It\u2019s Oz that\u2019s \u2018opaque\u2019, \u2018doing the bidding of the US\u2019, guilty of \u2018politicisation and stigmatisation\u2019, \u2018spearheading the crusade against China\u2019, \u2018poisoning the atmosphere of bilateral relations\u2019. Brush off the bombast to view a useful list of choices Australia wouldn\u2019t recant on: Huawei and 5G tech; foreign interference legislation; Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Taiwan.<\/p>\n

7. Xi Jingping: <\/strong>This is personal. Xi\u2019s 2014 address<\/a> to the Australian Parliament was a relationship high point; now the leader who visited every Australian state punishes ingratitude. China\u2019s 14 charges listed Australia\u2019s \u2018call for an international independent inquiry into the Covid-19 virus\u2019. Australia spoke loud at a moment of crisis for Xi\u2019s leadership; he sends retribution.<\/p>\n

8. China\u2019s might:<\/strong> \u2018The brutal reality of dealing with China\u2019<\/a> (a front cover headline from The Economist)<\/em>. On track to be the top economy, China is the largest trading partner of 64 countries, against 38 countries with the US. \u2018[I]f forced to take sides, many countries might choose China over the West,\u2019 The Economist<\/em> muses. \u2018Engagement with China is the only sensible course, but how does it avoid becoming appeasement?\u2019<\/p>\n

9. The end of US primacy: <\/strong>The Biden administration understands the game has changed. Now to get America back in the game<\/a>.<\/p>\n

10. The global system shakes:<\/strong> We are at the end of the old international order<\/a>, a profoundly challenging<\/a> moment for Australia as a contented status quo power.<\/p>\n

11. The Indo-Pacific:<\/strong> A new geographic construct is \u2018the cradle of crises or solutions\u2019<\/a>. In the effort for coexistence, not war<\/a>, Rory Medcalf describes the Indo-Pacific as \u2018both a region and an idea<\/a>: a metaphor for collective action, self-help combined with mutual help\u2019. The first Quad leaders\u2019 summit polishes the democratic diamond<\/a>, as one facet<\/a> of the construct.<\/p>\n

12. The pandemic: <\/strong>Covid-19 changed<\/a> the way we work and live and how we think about health and travel and economics and government (especially competent government). In Huong Le Thu\u2019s<\/a> apt aphorism: \u2018If power corrupts, then crisis reveals.\u2019 And crisis accelerates history.<\/p>\n

13. Hot peace: <\/strong>\u2018New cold war\u2019 carries so much history it distorts understanding. \u2018Hot peace\u2019<\/a> is a better label for what\u2019s different this time: \u2018technology, cyberconflict and influence operations\u2019<\/a>. Much heat flows from US\u2013China intimacy, deeply intertwined yet deeply different powers, bound to compete, compel and challenge<\/a>.<\/p>\n

14. Dragon punchers and dragon patters: <\/strong>In recent decades, Canberra\u2019s argument was between dragon slayers and panda huggers (the 2013 Asian century white paper<\/a> was a big panda cuddle).<\/p>\n

Alas, the panda is extinct.<\/p>\n

The poles of the debate converged. Dragon punchers now debate dragon patters. Both sides see the same creature.<\/p>\n

Even patters are wary: Geoff Raby writes of the \u2018dystopian\u2019<\/a> times and Australia\u2019s need for \u2018a hard-headed\u2019, realist <\/em>grand strategy.<\/p>\n

Still divided on tactics, punchers and patters agree on the size and challenge of the dragon.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Here are 14 points on the longest icy age between Australia and China since diplomatic relations were established nearly 50 years ago. The 14 points match the number\u2014but not spirit\u2014of the Chinese embassy\u2019s 14 angry …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":63628,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2212,294,285,204],"class_list":["post-63603","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australia-china-relations","tag-diplomacy","tag-foreign-policy","tag-xi-jinping"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFourteen points on Australia\u2019s icy times with China | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/fourteen-points-on-australias-icy-times-with-china\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fourteen points on Australia\u2019s icy times with China | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Here are 14 points on the longest icy age between Australia and China since diplomatic relations were established nearly 50 years ago. 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