{"id":63858,"date":"2021-04-15T15:00:18","date_gmt":"2021-04-15T05:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=63858"},"modified":"2021-04-15T14:49:25","modified_gmt":"2021-04-15T04:49:25","slug":"how-much-does-myanmars-coup-threaten-aseans-credibility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-much-does-myanmars-coup-threaten-aseans-credibility\/","title":{"rendered":"How much does Myanmar\u2019s coup threaten ASEAN\u2019s credibility?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Myanmar\u2019s military coup and the ensuing mass civil unrest have been presented as a litmus test of ASEAN centrality. Some observers have even portrayed<\/a> the coup as \u2018the most serious threat to the importance of ASEAN in regional diplomacy since the Cold War\u2019.<\/p>\n

Such an argument is curious on numerous grounds. Although individual states within ASEAN might care (or profess<\/a> to care) about democracy, the organisation as a whole has always prioritised<\/a> non-interference and respect for sovereignty. ASEAN has had little if anything<\/a> to say in recent years about military coups in Thailand or substantial democratic backsliding<\/a> in Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines.<\/p>\n

Myanmar\u2019s entry into ASEAN in 1997 occurred when the US\u2019s democracy and human rights promotion efforts<\/a> were at their zenith. At that time, and later when ASEAN was trying to deflect Western criticism by promulgating its own watered-down<\/a> declaration on human rights, discussing<\/a> Myanmar\u2019s internal political character was fair game in a way that simply didn\u2019t apply to other members. To the extent that ASEAN is trying to mildly pressure Myanmar\u2019s ruling junta since February\u2019s coup, such a dynamic has continued today. This doesn\u2019t mean, however, that the upholding of democracy is a logical touchstone upon which to evaluate ASEAN centrality.<\/p>\n

ASEAN\u2019s centrality in the regional diplomatic architecture has rarely if ever been defined by the organisation\u2019s ability to solve complex domestic political issues.<\/span> Myanmar has always<\/a> insisted that its various domestic peace processes are an internal affair. Accordingly, ASEAN has refrained from involving itself, despite\u2014much like today\u2014spillover effects impacting Thailand<\/a> and close ASEAN partners India and China. ASEAN\u2019s response<\/a> to the Rohingya issue has never been praised for its efficacy.<\/p>\n

This dynamic is in no way limited to Myanmar. ASEAN was not, for example, a particularly visible<\/a> or key player in the Philippines\u2019 efforts to break the siege of Marawi or in the negotiation and implementation<\/a> of the Mindanao peace process. Nor was it a particularly important<\/a> actor in the Aceh peace process.<\/p>\n

There are exceptions, but they have occurred mostly in non-member states. Alongside Australia<\/a>, ASEAN played a significant role in Cambodia\u2019s 1992\u201393 political transition\u2014before Phnom Penh joined the regional grouping in 1999. ASEAN also played an important<\/a>, if not behind-the-scenes, role in Australia\u2019s midwifery of Timor-Leste\u2019s independence.<\/p>\n

But, overall, ASEAN has failed to effectively respond to regional issues that appear to have far greater regional security implications than events in Myanmar.<\/p>\n

Tensions over the South China Sea have often been characterised<\/a> as the most likely source of a US\u2013China conflict. Between China\u2019s vast fishing fleets, militarisation of contested maritime waters and perceivably destabilising<\/a> US freedom-of-navigation manoeuvres, ASEAN claimant states have had little control over broader dynamics there. Yet, largely because of China\u2019s increasingly close<\/a> relationship with Cambodia and Laos, ASEAN has often failed<\/a> to achieve consensus on this crucial issue. Last year, ASEAN could only agree to<\/a> a \u2018muted and ambiguous\u2019 statement.<\/p>\n

Perhaps more important in terms of tangible everyday impacts is the issue of the long-term health of the Mekong River. China\u2019s and to a lesser extent Laos\u2019s<\/a>\u00a0damming of the upper reaches of the Mekong have exacerbated<\/a> droughts and fragile ecologies in downstream countries. The result is that the livelihoods of at least 60 million<\/a> people in Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos itself are now under threat. Climate change will exacerbate these problems and is already driving<\/a> internal migration and lower rice yields. Declining fisheries and agricultural output raise the possibility that distressed local communities will turn to other means<\/a> of making a living such as drug trafficking. So far, ASEAN has failed<\/a> to even respond at the basic level to this issue. Vietnam was intending<\/a> to raise the issue during its chairmanship in 2020 but was side-tracked because of the pandemic.<\/p>\n

Rather than in resolving issues that are at their core domestic, ASEAN\u2019s traditional strength has lain in keeping the peace in a region beset by historical rivalries<\/a> and ongoing territorial disputes<\/a>. ASEAN\u2019s muted response\u2014or indeed lack of response\u2014to the South China Sea and Mekong issues may ultimately prove to be a greater threat to its centrality than its silence on Myanmar\u2019s domestic travails.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Myanmar\u2019s military coup and the ensuing mass civil unrest have been presented as a litmus test of ASEAN centrality. Some observers have even portrayed the coup as \u2018the most serious threat to the importance of …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":826,"featured_media":63862,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[189,467,212,25],"class_list":["post-63858","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-asean","tag-multilateralism","tag-myanmar","tag-southeast-asia"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHow much does Myanmar\u2019s coup threaten ASEAN\u2019s credibility? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-much-does-myanmars-coup-threaten-aseans-credibility\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How much does Myanmar\u2019s coup threaten ASEAN\u2019s credibility? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Myanmar\u2019s military coup and the ensuing mass civil unrest have been presented as a litmus test of ASEAN centrality. 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