{"id":63983,"date":"2021-04-21T10:30:09","date_gmt":"2021-04-21T00:30:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=63983"},"modified":"2021-04-21T10:18:12","modified_gmt":"2021-04-21T00:18:12","slug":"will-china-be-the-middle-easts-next-hegemon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/will-china-be-the-middle-easts-next-hegemon\/","title":{"rendered":"Will China be the Middle East\u2019s next hegemon?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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President Joe Biden has announced that he will withdraw US troops from Afghanistan by 11 September, finally ending America\u2019s longest war ever. The move was indicative of a broader shift by the United States away from the Middle East\u2014one that has been a long time coming. Will anyone take its place in the region?<\/p>\n

China seems to hope so. Just a couple of weeks before Biden\u2019s announcement, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was in Tehran to sign a 25-year \u2018comprehensive strategic partnership\u2019 (CSP) deal with Iran, which will include economic, political and security cooperation. The move has the US concerned<\/a>\u2014and for good reason.<\/p>\n

Yes, CSPs are a standard foreign-policy tool for China, which has already established them with other countries in the region, including Iraq and Saudi Arabia. And some have most likely exaggerated the scope of the CSP with Iran, such as by reporting<\/a> that it includes US$400 billion of Chinese investment in Iran. (Neither party has confirmed<\/a> any specific figure.)<\/p>\n

But even if the CSP doesn\u2019t elevate the China\u2013Iran relationship to new heights, it is the first such partnership China has concluded with a long-established adversary of the US. At the same time, China is deepening ties with America\u2019s closest allies in the Middle East, including the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and even Israel.<\/p>\n

For now, China\u2019s motivation seems primarily economic. Aside from gaining access to the region\u2019s energy resources, China can boost its profile in cutting-edge sectors by cooperating with Israel\u2019s high-tech industries. That\u2019s why\u2014much to the annoyance of the US\u2014it has sharply increased<\/a> its investment in Israel in recent years.<\/p>\n

China has also looked to Israel to advance its connectivity ambitions, encompassed by the Belt and Road Initiative. Just as China has already taken control of seaports elsewhere across Asia and Europe, it has established itself at the Israeli port of Haifa. Similarly, anticipating reliance on Iranian oil, China has developed a direct shipping route to the port of Bandar Abbas on the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

One thing the US doesn\u2019t have to worry about\u2014at least for now\u2014is China stoking conflict in the Middle East. Yes, the CSP with Iran mentions security cooperation, but it\u2019s no military alliance\u2014and China isn\u2019t taking sides in any military conflict. After all, China also conducts<\/a> military drills with Iran\u2019s archrival, Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n

The last thing China wants is for a regional conflagration to disrupt oil exports or destroy its investments in the region. This makes China a responsible stakeholder in regional peace. But it doesn\u2019t signal China\u2019s willingness to underwrite security in the Middle East. Military alliances are not China\u2019s preferred tool in its global competition with the US.<\/p>\n

China has also been careful not to be drawn into the region\u2019s long-running conflicts. While China recently suggested<\/a> that it would host direct talks between Israeli and Palestinian leaders, this should not be given too much credence. China is well aware that it was only because of America\u2019s massive expenditure of blood and treasure that China has been able to expand its economic influence in Afghanistan<\/a> and Iraq<\/a>. That is not the kind of investment it\u2019s interested in making.<\/p>\n

Ultimately, China\u2019s economic interests are best served by keeping the Middle East\u2019s established US-led security system intact. This partly explains why China\u2019s main partners in the Middle East are mostly US allies. China made an exception when it signed the CSP with Iran, but that, too, was an economic calculation: it wants to revive bilateral trade, which has suffered mightily<\/a> since the US withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and reinstated sanctions in 2018.<\/p>\n

In fact, it was only after sanctions were reintroduced that the idea of the CSP was born. The timing of its signing\u2014just as the Biden administration tries to renegotiate and rejoin the nuclear deal\u2014was a calculated decision by China to strengthen Iran\u2019s bargaining position, thereby, it is hoped, hastening the lifting of sanctions.<\/p>\n

Iran will, however, pay a high price for its partnership with China, which has taken advantage of its economic travails to lay claim to a heavily discounted supply of oil. During earlier phases of the CSP negotiations, some Iranians warned that China was seeking an exploitative deal<\/a>, much like the agreements<\/a> that ended with it wresting control of Sri Lanka\u2019s Hambantota Port.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s powerful Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah, should also be wary of China. In particular, Hezbollah will need to reconsider its threat to launch a ballistic-missile attack on Israel\u2019s Haifa port, given that China now all but owns it.<\/p>\n

As for the US, its military superiority in the Middle East will probably remain undisputed for some time. But military power won\u2019t be enough to stem China\u2019s strategic rise in the region (and beyond). For that, the US will also need to boost its political clout, economic engagement and cultural influence. Otherwise, as Biden put it<\/a> in February, China will \u2018eat our lunch\u2019.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

President Joe Biden has announced that he will withdraw US troops from Afghanistan by 11 September, finally ending America\u2019s longest war ever. The move was indicative of a broader shift by the United States away …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":484,"featured_media":63986,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,247,218,31],"class_list":["post-63983","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-iran","tag-middle-east","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWill China be the Middle East\u2019s next hegemon? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/will-china-be-the-middle-easts-next-hegemon\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Will China be the Middle East\u2019s next hegemon? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"President Joe Biden has announced that he will withdraw US troops from Afghanistan by 11 September, finally ending America\u2019s longest war ever. 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