{"id":64578,"date":"2021-05-19T15:23:40","date_gmt":"2021-05-19T05:23:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=64578"},"modified":"2021-05-19T15:32:16","modified_gmt":"2021-05-19T05:32:16","slug":"australias-china-debate-has-too-little-focus-on-xis-destabilising-words-and-actions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australias-china-debate-has-too-little-focus-on-xis-destabilising-words-and-actions\/","title":{"rendered":"Australia\u2019s \u2018China debate\u2019: Time to end domestic politicking and focus on Xi\u2019s destabilising words and actions"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"693\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-64583\" src=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/GettyImages-1232508756.jpg\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/GettyImages-1232508756.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/GettyImages-1232508756-205x139.jpg 205w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/GettyImages-1232508756-768x520.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>Shadow foreign minister Penny Wong has criticised the government over public discussion of the potential for a war with China starting over Taiwan, characterising it as the government seeking domestic political advantage.<\/p>\n<p>Even though Wong\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pennywong.com.au\/media-hub\/speeches\/speech-to-launch-peter-hartcher-s-red-zone-king-s-hall-old-parliament-house-canberra-19-05-2021\/\">speech<\/a> at a Canberra book launch included protestations of structural bipartisanship, it\u2019s a risky and unfortunate path to take at a time when Australia desperately needs a cohesive national policy on China.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s been hugely valuable for Australia that the big decisions that have protected Australian interests in managing the now obvious risks in our engagement with China have been backed by both sides of politics. They include:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Excluding \u2018high-risk\u2019 vendors from the 5G network,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">strengthening foreign investment review from a national security perspective,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">requiring transparency of funding sources and relationships with foreign powers from those involved in public debate and political influence,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">standing against Xi Jinping\u2019s mass-scale human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, plus his open militarisation of the South China Sea after committing not to do so in 2015, and<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ending Victoria\u2019s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Parliament has also been strongly behind resisting China\u2019s economic coercion of Australia in multiple trade sectors\u2014so far affecting barley, wheat, coal, wine, lobsters and lumber, and now also including suspension of the ministerial-level strategic economic dialogue.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>This clarity in parliament has helped Australia to be resilient as we continue the hard long-term work of reducing the importance of the China market to Australia, and so reducing Beijing\u2019s coercive leverage.<\/p>\n<p>And it\u2019s not just the government and opposition that support this policy direction, it\u2019s the majority of the Australian public, as shown by last year\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lowyinstitute.org\/publications\/lowy-institute-poll-2020\">Lowy poll<\/a>, which is in line with a much broader <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/global\/2020\/10\/06\/unfavorable-views-of-china-reach-historic-highs-in-many-countries\/\">international collapse<\/a> in populations\u2019 views of China under Xi.<\/p>\n<p>The idea that discussion of a potential conflict between China and other nations\u2014including the US and allies like Australia\u2014if Beijing uses its military to seek to unify Taiwan with the mainland by force is all about domestic politics, though, is wrong.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s wrong because this line of thinking ignores some basic realities.<\/p>\n<p>Xi has changed the Chinese government\u2019s longstanding policy that Taiwan is an issue to be resolved \u2018by future generations\u2019, and has instead said that Taiwan now is a problem that should <a href=\"http:\/\/www.gwytb.gov.cn\/wyly\/201904\/t20190412_12155687.htm\">not be passed down<\/a> from one generation to the next.<\/p>\n<p>Last year, he called on the People\u2019s Liberation Army to focus on preparing for war and visited numerous military units. One was the PLA\u2019s marine corps, which has a primary role of conducting amphibious assaults against islands. He exhorted them to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/xi-jinping-tells-troops-prepare-war-1539031\">prepare for war<\/a> and to focus on being able to use force against Taiwan. In January, he issued a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.memri.org\/reports\/xi-jinping-signs-order-no-1-focus-war-preparedness-and-refers-us-enemy\">mobilisation order<\/a> requiring the entire armed forces to \u2018focus on war preparedness and to be primed to fight at any second\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>Xi has continued the <a href=\"https:\/\/media.defense.gov\/2020\/Sep\/01\/2002488689\/-1\/-1\/1\/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF\">PLA modernisation program<\/a>, which has a first priority on building the PLA to take Taiwan by force.<\/p>\n<p>He also ended the only credible path to a peaceful unification between Taiwan and the mainland when he <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/news\/hong-kong\/politics\/article\/3085617\/two-sessions-2020-national-security-law-hong-kong-will\">ended<\/a> the \u2018one country, two systems\u2019 model in Hong Kong\u2014the only viable model that Taiwanese people might have considered for peaceful unification.<\/p>\n<p>And incursions by PLA ships and aircraft across the mid-point of the Taiwan Strait and into Taiwanese airspace are at record levels in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/26\/taiwan-reports-largest-ever-incursion-by-chinese-air-force\">2021,<\/a> even against the high benchmark of the past four years.<\/p>\n<p>These same reasons are why Taiwan\u2019s security has been on the agenda for multiple international meetings\u2014like the US\u2013China meeting in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/secretary-antony-j-blinken-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-chinese-director-of-the-office-of-the-central-commission-for-foreign-affairs-yang-jiechi-and-chinese-state-councilor-wang-yi-at-th\/\">Alaska<\/a>, the latest <a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/briefing-room\/statements-releases\/2021\/04\/16\/u-s-japan-joint-leaders-statement-u-s-japan-global-partnership-for-a-new-era\/\">US\u2013Japan<\/a> meeting and this month\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/publications\/g7-foreign-and-development-ministers-meeting-may-2021-communique\">G7 foreign ministers\u2019<\/a> meeting.<\/p>\n<p>This combination of actions by Xi and the PLA make it entirely reasonable\u2014and necessary\u2014to be open with the Australian people about the risks of conflict. In a calm, sober and measured way, certainly, but calmness doesn\u2019t mean lack of clarity or silence.<\/p>\n<p>We also hear that mentioning the very idea of conflict plays into Beijing\u2019s hands. However, not naming a problem always complicates solving it. So not discussing the risk of conflict in light of Beijing\u2019s actions will simply make acting to deter Beijing much harder.<\/p>\n<p>Deterring Xi from taking another big risk\u2014as he did over Hong Kong\u2014requires cooperative multilateral planning and actions to demonstrate the costs to China from seeking to change Taiwan\u2019s status by force.<\/p>\n<p>We should not turn this grave international situation into a domestic political issue that divides parliament on partisan lines.<\/p>\n<p>The good news here is that Wong\u2019s speech committed to the structural elements of Australia\u2019s China policy set out above. And it\u2019s also refreshing that Wong recognises, unlike numerous former political figures, that the policy that worked for decades can\u2019t work with the China we now have under Xi.<\/p>\n<p>The bad news is this \u2018structural bipartisanship\u2019 is wrapped in Labor\u2019s own domestic political strategy. From Wong\u2019s speech, this includes attacking Prime Minister Scott Morrison over former US President Donald Trump, policy on Jerusalem and, on China, both the prime minister\u2019s recent confusion around \u2018one country, two systems\u2019, and, repeatedly, over words used by Home Affairs Secretary Mike Pezzullo to staff in an Anzac Day message.<\/p>\n<p>Real bipartisanship on China policy is needed from both sides of politics to avoid creating seams for a strategically focused Chinese state to exploit.<\/p>\n<p>Under Trump, the US reasserted support for Taiwan through commitments made when Washington recognised the People\u2019s Republic of China and sought closer government-to-government and other contact with Taiwan under the <a href=\"https:\/\/r.search.yahoo.com\/_ylt=Awr4xLDljqRgiC4AmsgL5gt.;_ylu=Y29sbwNncTEEcG9zAzQEdnRpZANDMTk2NF8xBHNlYwNzcg--\/RV=2\/RE=1621426022\/RO=10\/RU=https%3a%2f%2fwww.congress.gov%2fbill%2f96th-congress%2fhouse-bill%2f2479\/RK=2\/RS=3R7nzG5E77BCItnnuFmcMbwza_c-\">Taiwan Relations Act<\/a>. Since taking office, President Joe Biden has continued this.<\/p>\n<p>The US stepped up the military arms it was selling to Taiwan under Trump and this is likely to continue under Biden.<\/p>\n<p>There is indeed, as Wong says, a debate about the US ending its policy of ambiguity on whether it would necessarily act militarily to defend Taiwan if China attacked it\u2014but that debate is driven by whether the current situation requires even more clarity about US commitments to preserve Taiwan\u2019s current status.<\/p>\n<p>The key US military commander who would deal with a Taiwan conflict, Indo-Pacific Command chief Admiral Philip Davidson, has sought urgent funding from Congress to increase the US military\u2019s deterrent power. He has <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.house.gov\/meetings\/AS\/AS00\/20210310\/111316\/HHRG-117-AS00-Wstate-DavidsonP-20210310.pdf\">testified<\/a> to Congress about his concern that the PLA is getting increasingly confident in its ability to seize Taiwan by force.<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s little doubt that the US understands the strategic interests at stake in defending Taiwan and providing very credible deterrence to prevent Xi from ordering the PLA to act. The Biden administration has reiterated the US core position that Taiwan\u2019s status should not be changed by force. That\u2019s Australia\u2019s (and many other nations\u2019) longstanding policy too. It\u2019s just not true that somehow Australian policy is out in front of allies and partners.<\/p>\n<p>If the current domestic politicking is simply electoral positioning, then we must press leaders on both sides of politics\u2014and at state and territory levels\u2014to realise that there are more important national interests at stake that must trump these narrower political interests. And, after realising this, they must all speak accordingly.<\/p>\n<p>More structural policy agreement and articulation is in all our interests, as is more clarity about Chinese policies and directions, instead of fevered domestic political introspection. That\u2019s pretty clearly what the population expects at this difficult time in Australia\u2019s history.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Shadow foreign minister Penny Wong has criticised the government over public discussion of the potential for a war with China starting over Taiwan, characterising it as the government seeking domestic political advantage. Even though Wong\u2019s &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":766,"featured_media":64583,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2212,376,392,204],"class_list":["post-64578","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australia-china-relations","tag-politics","tag-taiwan","tag-xi-jinping"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Australia\u2019s \u2018China debate\u2019: Time to end domestic politicking and focus on Xi\u2019s destabilising words and actions | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australias-china-debate-has-too-little-focus-on-xis-destabilising-words-and-actions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Australia\u2019s \u2018China debate\u2019: Time to end domestic politicking and focus on Xi\u2019s destabilising words and actions | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Shadow foreign minister Penny Wong has criticised the government over public discussion of the potential for a war with China starting over Taiwan, characterising it as the government seeking domestic political advantage. Even though Wong\u2019s ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australias-china-debate-has-too-little-focus-on-xis-destabilising-words-and-actions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-05-19T05:23:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-05-19T05:32:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/GettyImages-1232508756.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"693\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Michael Shoebridge\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Michael Shoebridge\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI&#039;s analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australias-china-debate-has-too-little-focus-on-xis-destabilising-words-and-actions\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/GettyImages-1232508756.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/GettyImages-1232508756.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":693,\"caption\":\"SANYA, April 23, 2021 -- Chinese President Xi Jinping, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, presents People's Liberation Army PLA flag and the naming certificate to the captain and political commissar of the Changzheng-18 in Sanya, south China's Hainan Province, April 23, 2021. 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