{"id":64885,"date":"2021-06-04T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-06-03T20:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=64885"},"modified":"2021-06-03T16:28:23","modified_gmt":"2021-06-03T06:28:23","slug":"chinas-long-range-missiles-highlight-raafs-strike-shortcomings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-long-range-missiles-highlight-raafs-strike-shortcomings\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s long-range missiles highlight RAAF\u2019s strike shortcomings"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Australia\u2019s new F-35A joint strike fighters deliver tactical advantages in air combat bestowed by stealth, systems integration and data fusion. Yet, as advanced as it is, the fleet we\u2019re acquiring doesn\u2019t address two key deficiencies of the air force\u2019s strike and air combat capabilities\u2014lack of combat mass<\/a> and lack of operational range<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In our quest for an absolute qualitative edge, we\u2019ve forgotten that quantity has a quality all its own. Our dependence on small numbers of exquisite platforms will make it difficult to sustain high-intensity operations, particularly if we\u2019re confronting a major-power adversary such as China. And the lack of range of those platforms accentuates that risk. Addressing that challenge will demand an urgent rethink of how defence capability is developed and acquired and a fundamental paradigm shift. We face a much more dangerous strategic outlook than has been the case for decades, at the centre of which is the prospect of war with China.<\/p>\n

Australian defence planners didn\u2019t consider preparing for a major-power war in our region to be a priority until the release of the 2020 defence strategic update<\/a>. As that document makes clear, an assumption of 10 years\u2019 strategic warning time is no longer appropriate for defence capability planning. The possibility of Chinese military operations against Taiwan\u2014perhaps within the next five or six years\u2014demands that Australian defence planners begin thinking about the implications of a major-power conflict in the Indo-Pacific, which would likely involve Australia alongside the United States.<\/p>\n

With that in mind, we need to urgently address a gap in our long-range power-projection capabilities to generate decisive effects well beyond the air\u2013sea gap. That hasn\u2019t really been a significant issue before. Expeditionary air operations with host-nation support, such as those over Syria and Iraq in Operation Okra<\/a>, were highly effective, but they occurred in a largely uncontested operational environment. Emerging operational challenges in the Indo-Pacific are markedly different and far more challenging than the skies over Syria.<\/p>\n

The 2020 force structure plan doesn\u2019t really address the gap, at least in terms of providing an offensive strike capability with numbers and range sufficient to respond to our current strategic predicament. The Defence Department is making some good decisions, though. The acquisition of 200 AGM-158C long-range anti-ship missiles<\/a>, or LRASMs, for the F\/A-18F Super Hornets, and eventually the P-8A Poseidons, will considerably enhance the air force\u2019s anti-surface warfare capability, replacing the largely obsolete Harpoon anti-ship missiles. The force structure plan and the 2021\u201322 defence portfolio budget statement<\/a>s mention the acquisition of 1,500-kilometre range BGM-109 Block IV Tomahawk land attack missiles for land and maritime strike from the navy\u2019s Hobart-class air warfare destroyers and Hunter-class future frigates.<\/p>\n

Hypersonic weapons are also on the horizon<\/a>, and Australia and the US are now collaborating under the SCIFiRE<\/a> program to that end, but the timelines for introducing hypersonic weapons are vague. The force structure plan also notes the importance of autonomous systems and \u2018teaming air vehicles\u2019, with Boeing Australia now developing the \u2018loyal wingman\u2019<\/a> drone as part of its Airpower Teaming System. But that\u2019s a developmental program, and while the air force is supporting it, it hasn\u2019t yet committed<\/a> to funding its acquisition.<\/p>\n

The Block IV Tomahawks are a navy capability and may not be introduced in significant numbers, and hypersonic weapons aren\u2019t likely to appear until much later in the decade. So, for the next five years the air force will be left with little long-range strike potential, other than the LRASMs, which still depend on launch from short-range tactical platforms. Those in turn depend either on host-nation support closer to the fight or on tankers that can\u2019t operate in highly contested airspace. And even if tanker support is available, the challenge of insufficient range persists. ASPI\u2019s Marcus Hellyer has noted that tankers don\u2019t necessarily extend<\/a> the reach of platforms like the Super Hornet, or even the JSF, to key operational areas relevant to a crisis in the Taiwan Strait. We\u2019re still left with a strike gap.<\/p>\n

Having long-range offensive strike must be matched with effective defence to meet the threat posed by Chinese air and missile capabilities in the event of a Taiwan Strait crisis. China\u2019s H-6N bombers can launch CH-AS-X-13 air-launched ballistic missiles from near Hainan Island, and their 3,000-kilometre range would allow targeting of bases across northern Australia. If China were to deploy its 4,000-kilometre range ground-based DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missiles to Hainan, they could also strike our northern bases.<\/p>\n

Acquiring ballistic missile defence systems isn\u2019t necessarily the complete answer. They don\u2019t have a great record of success<\/a> in defeating simulated attacks by lesser threats such as North Korea. It\u2019s questionable how effective a missile defence network in our north, perhaps comprising sea-based SM-3 interceptors aboard the Hobart air warfare destroyers and land-based systems such as Aegis Ashore, would be against a more sophisticated Chinese missile threat. In any case, China\u2019s further development of hypersonic glide vehicles<\/a> such as the DF-17 might ultimately allow it to circumvent such systems. Betting on missile defence systems now could suck up precious resources with little gain.<\/p>\n

Meeting the challenge posed by long-range missiles is a \u2018wicked problem\u2019 for Defence. An urgent threat is emerging to which there is no clear response. Investment in systems such as the F-35 isn\u2019t necessarily the answer. Time isn\u2019t on our side, and we need a fast-tracked solution.<\/p>\n

The answer, which I\u2019ll explore in a future post, lies in accelerated development and acquisition of greater numbers of innovative autonomous systems, matched with more capable crewed platforms<\/a> that have greater range, performance and payload than even the F-35. The aim should be to develop a new layer of forward anti-access and area denial, a more resilient and distributed command-and-control architecture that can survive initial blows in a potentially prolonged high-intensity conflict, hardened bases and protected logistics. We would also benefit from building sovereign production chains for combat capability that are located beyond the reach of China\u2019s long-range missiles, for both defence operations and expeditionary operations as part of a coalition.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Australia\u2019s new F-35A joint strike fighters deliver tactical advantages in air combat bestowed by stealth, systems integration and data fusion. Yet, as advanced as it is, the fleet we\u2019re acquiring doesn\u2019t address two key deficiencies …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":147,"featured_media":64890,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,268,726,362],"class_list":["post-64885","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-missile","tag-raaf","tag-strike"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChina\u2019s long-range missiles highlight RAAF\u2019s strike shortcomings | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-long-range-missiles-highlight-raafs-strike-shortcomings\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China\u2019s long-range missiles highlight RAAF\u2019s strike shortcomings | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Australia\u2019s new F-35A joint strike fighters deliver tactical advantages in air combat bestowed by stealth, systems integration and data fusion. 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