{"id":65080,"date":"2021-06-15T11:00:26","date_gmt":"2021-06-15T01:00:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=65080"},"modified":"2021-07-06T14:08:47","modified_gmt":"2021-07-06T04:08:47","slug":"the-chinese-communist-party-wont-last-forever","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-chinese-communist-party-wont-last-forever\/","title":{"rendered":"The Chinese Communist Party won\u2019t last forever"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Human beings approaching the age of 100 normally think about death. But political parties celebrating their centennials, as the Chinese Communist Party will on 1 July<\/a>, are obsessed with immortality. Such optimism seems odd for parties that rule dictatorships, because their longevity record does not inspire confidence. The fact that no other such party in modern times has survived for a century should give China\u2019s leaders cause for worry, not celebration.<\/p>\n

One obvious reason for the relatively short lifespan of communist or authoritarian parties is that party-dominated modern dictatorships, unlike democracies, emerged only in the 20th century. The Soviet Union, the first such dictatorship, was founded in 1922. The Kuomintang in China, a quasi-Leninist party, gained nominal control of the country in 1927. The Nazis didn\u2019t come to power in Germany until 1933. Nearly all of the world\u2019s communist regimes were established after World War II.<\/p>\n

But there\u2019s a more fundamental explanation than historical coincidence. The political environment in which dictatorial parties operate implies an existence that is far more Hobbesian\u2014\u2018nasty, brutish, and short\u2019\u2014than that of their democratic counterparts.<\/p>\n

One sure way for dictatorial parties to die is to wage a war and lose, a fate that befell the Nazis and Mussolini\u2019s Fascists in Italy. But most exit power in a far less dramatic (or traumatic) fashion.<\/p>\n

In non-communist regimes, longstanding and forward-looking ruling parties, such as the Kuomintang in Taiwan and Mexico\u2019s Institutional Revolutionary Party, saw the writing on the wall and initiated democratising reforms before they lost all legitimacy. Although these parties were eventually voted out of office, they remained politically viable and subsequently returned to power by winning competitive elections (in Taiwan in 2008 and Mexico in 2012).<\/p>\n

In contrast, communist regimes trying to appease their populations through limited democratic reforms have all ended up collapsing. In the former Soviet bloc, liberalising measures in the 1980s quickly triggered revolutions that swept the communists\u2014and the Soviet Union itself\u2014into the dustbin of history.<\/p>\n

The CCP doesn\u2019t want to dwell on that history during its upcoming centennial festivities. Chinese President Xi Jinping and his colleagues obviously want to project an image of confidence and optimism. But political bravado is no substitute for a survival strategy, and once the CCP rules out reform as too dangerous, its available options are extremely limited.<\/p>\n

Before Xi came to power in 2012, some Chinese leaders looked to Singapore\u2019s model. The People\u2019s Action Party (PAP), which has ruled the city-state without interruption since 1959, seems to have it all: a near-total monopoly of power, competent governance, superior economic performance and dependable popular support. But the more the CCP looked\u2014and it dispatched tens of thousands of officials to Singapore to study it\u2014the less it wanted to become a giant version of the PAP. China\u2019s communists certainly wanted to have the PAP\u2019s hold on power, but they didn\u2019t want to adopt the same methods and institutions that help maintain the PAP\u2019s supremacy.<\/p>\n

Of all the institutional ingredients that have made the PAP\u2019s dominance special, the CCP least likes Singapore\u2019s legalised opposition parties, relatively clean elections and rule of law. Chinese leaders understand that these institutions, vital to the PAP\u2019s success, would fatally weaken the CCP\u2019s political monopoly if introduced in China.<\/p>\n

That is perhaps why the Singapore model has lost its lustre in the Xi era, whereas the North Korean model\u2014totalitarian political repression, a cult of the supreme leader and juche<\/em> (economic self-reliance)\u2014has grown more appealing. True, China hasn\u2019t yet become a giant North Korea, but a number of trends over the past eight years have moved the country in that direction.<\/p>\n

Politically, the rule of fear has returned, not only for ordinary people, but also for the CCP\u2019s elites, as Xi has reinstated purges under the guise of a perpetual anti-corruption campaign. Censorship is at its highest level in the post-Mao era, and Xi\u2019s regime has all but eliminated space for civil society, including NGOs. The authorities have even reined in China\u2019s freewheeling private entrepreneurs with regulatory crackdowns, criminal prosecution and confiscation of wealth.<\/p>\n

And Xi has assiduously nurtured a personality cult. These days, the front page of the People\u2019s Daily<\/em> newspaper is filled with coverage of Xi\u2019s activities and personal edicts. The abridged history of the CCP, recently released to mark the party\u2019s centennial, devotes a quarter of its content to Xi\u2019s eight years in power, while giving only half as much space to Deng Xiaoping, the CCP\u2019s true savior.<\/p>\n

Economically, China has yet to embrace juche <\/em>fully. But the CCP\u2019s new five-year plan<\/a> projects a vision of technological self-sufficiency and economic security centred on domestic growth. Although the party has a reasonable excuse\u2014America\u2019s strategy of economic and technological decoupling leaves it no alternative\u2014few Western democracies will want to remain economically coupled with a country that sees North Korea as its future political model.<\/p>\n

When China\u2019s leaders toast the CCP\u2019s centennial, they should ask whether the party is on the right track. If it isn\u2019t, the CCP\u2019s upcoming milestone may be its last.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Human beings approaching the age of 100 normally think about death. But political parties celebrating their centennials, as the Chinese Communist Party will on 1 July, are obsessed with immortality. 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