{"id":65259,"date":"2021-06-23T15:15:04","date_gmt":"2021-06-23T05:15:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=65259"},"modified":"2021-06-23T15:25:29","modified_gmt":"2021-06-23T05:25:29","slug":"introducing-irans-president-elect","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/introducing-irans-president-elect\/","title":{"rendered":"Introducing Iran\u2019s president-elect"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

As was widely predicted<\/a>, Ebrahim Raisi, a hardline conservative, won last Friday\u2019s Iranian presidential election in a landslide and will succeed Hassan Rouhani as president in August. However, the historically low turnout of voters and highest ever informal vote clearly demonstrated Raisi\u2019s low public appeal and serious disillusionment with the regime\u2019s policies.<\/p>\n

Although the Guardian Council approved seven candidates to contest the election, only four did so. Like Raisi, two of them were conservatives: Mohsen Rezaei, a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps; and the first deputy speaker of the parliament, Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi. The sole reformist was Abdolnaser Hemmati, who until recently was governor of Iran\u2019s central bank. The other three approved candidates, two conservatives and one reformist, withdrew shortly before election day. This is a common tactic to avoid splitting the vote among like-minded candidates or avoid an embarrassing defeat.<\/p>\n

Although Raisi was the clear winner, the votes tell the story. According to available statistics, of Iran\u2019s 59 million eligible voters, only 28.5 million, or some 48%, voted, the lowest percentage ever. And in Tehran<\/a>, only 26% voted.<\/p>\n

However, 3.7 million votes were declared void, the highest number ever. In effect, only 24.7 million valid votes were cast, representing about 42% of eligible voters.<\/p>\n

While a low turnout of voters was widely predicted, the high number of invalid votes, most of which are thought to have been deliberate, was not. Together, they can be seen as protests by a majority of the people about the limited number of approved candidates and the regime\u2019s policies generally.<\/p>\n

Against this background, Raisi comfortably won the election, receiving 17.9 million votes, or some 63% of all votes cast. Razaei received 3.4 million, or about 12%; Hemmati, 2.4 million, or about 8%; and Hashemi, less than 1 million, or 3.5%. There are two notable factors here: Raisi received fewer votes than when he challenged Rouhani in 2017 and, in another first, the number of invalid ballots exceeded the number of votes received by each of the three losing candidates.<\/p>\n

The election\u2019s outcome fulfils Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei\u2019s intent that Raisi be the next president, and that Iran return to a conservative-led government. It also gives Raisi the opportunity to demonstrate his potential as Khamenei\u2019s successor.<\/p>\n

However, the voting shows that Raisi doesn\u2019t have popular appeal as a national leader. This is no surprise, particularly given his track record on human rights and presumed resistance to any social liberalisation that would clash with his traditional Islamic views.<\/p>\n

Once in office, Raisi\u2019s biggest challenge will be the economy. This will include resuming oil sales, restoring investment, lowering inflation and unemployment, and fighting corruption. The most significant means of reversing the current economic crisis is through the US rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or nuclear agreement, and lifting the economic sanctions it has placed on Iran.<\/p>\n

If Iran and the US can agree to restore the agreement before Raisi takes office, he should reap the economic benefits. If such an agreement isn\u2019t reached before then, it would be in Raisi\u2019s interests to act pragmatically to reach an \u2018acceptable\u2019 deal as soon as possible.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s some speculation that both Iran and US would prefer to conclude a deal with Rouhani rather than Raisi. A deal with Rouhani would enable him to leave the presidency on a high note. Raisi would then inherit and be under an obligation to comply with the conditions of that deal. Compliance will be important; any breach would likely cause the US to reimpose sanctions.<\/p>\n

One significant hurdle that Raisi will face is the domestic and international implications of his human rights record. He is currently subject to human rights sanctions<\/a> by both the US and European Union, and it remains to be seen how they will establish a functional working relationship with him on bilateral, multilateral and other regional security issues.<\/p>\n

Most regional countries, including the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, have congratulated Raisi on his win and expressed their hopes for a constructive working relationship. Other players, however, will muddy the waters. Israel strongly condemned<\/a> Raisi as a dangerous extremist and restated its opposition to restoring the JCPOA. Both Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have also called for Raisi\u2019s alleged human rights abuses to be investigated.<\/p>\n

While Raisi\u2019s broader views on foreign policy will become clear in the coming months, some insights emerged<\/a> during his first post-election press conference, held in Tehran on 21 June. The president-elect confirmed his support for restoring the JCPOA, but also emphasised his commitment to existing Iranian policy that rejects allowing missiles and Iran\u2019s regional activities to be part of the deal. On relations with the US, he said he supported \u2018negotiations that guarantee our national interests\u2019, but ruled out any direct meeting with US President Joe Biden in the foreseeable future. Raisi also said that one of his foreign policy priorities was to improve relations with the Gulf states generally and to re-establish diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s too early to make predictions on the road ahead, but given the multiple challenges, it\u2019s certain to be a bumpy ride. Internationally, much will depend on who Raisi appoints as his foreign minister, and on how easy\u2014or not\u2014it will be to engage with him.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As was widely predicted, Ebrahim Raisi, a hardline conservative, won last Friday\u2019s Iranian presidential election in a landslide and will succeed Hassan Rouhani as president in August. However, the historically low turnout of voters and …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":205,"featured_media":65261,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[83,247,1883,218],"class_list":["post-65259","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-elections","tag-iran","tag-jcpoa","tag-middle-east"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIntroducing Iran\u2019s president-elect | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/introducing-irans-president-elect\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Introducing Iran\u2019s president-elect | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As was widely predicted, Ebrahim Raisi, a hardline conservative, won last Friday\u2019s Iranian presidential election in a landslide and will succeed Hassan Rouhani as president in August. However, the historically low turnout of voters and ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/introducing-irans-president-elect\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-06-23T05:15:04+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-06-23T05:25:29+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/GettyImages-1233522792.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"683\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Ian Dudgeon\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Ian Dudgeon\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/introducing-irans-president-elect\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/GettyImages-1233522792.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/GettyImages-1233522792.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":683,\"caption\":\"TEHRAN, IRAN - JUNE 18: Ebrahim Raisi, a candidate in Iran's presidential elections waves to the media after casting his vote at a polling station on June 18, 2021, on the day of the Islamic republic's presidential election. The country's incumbent president, Hassan Rouhani, is ineligible to run again after serving two terms in office. (Photo by Majid Saeedi\/Getty Images)\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/introducing-irans-president-elect\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/introducing-irans-president-elect\/\",\"name\":\"Introducing Iran\u2019s president-elect | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/introducing-irans-president-elect\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2021-06-23T05:15:04+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-06-23T05:25:29+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/260e7ee6c4373d9bc7dff029df65e182\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/introducing-irans-president-elect\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/introducing-irans-president-elect\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/introducing-irans-president-elect\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Introducing Iran\u2019s president-elect\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/260e7ee6c4373d9bc7dff029df65e182\",\"name\":\"Ian Dudgeon\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d3c9536900bdb17085b34bba23a3850f?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d3c9536900bdb17085b34bba23a3850f?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Ian Dudgeon\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/ian-dudgeon\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Introducing Iran\u2019s president-elect | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/introducing-irans-president-elect\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Introducing Iran\u2019s president-elect | The Strategist","og_description":"As was widely predicted, Ebrahim Raisi, a hardline conservative, won last Friday\u2019s Iranian presidential election in a landslide and will succeed Hassan Rouhani as president in August. However, the historically low turnout of voters and ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/introducing-irans-president-elect\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2021-06-23T05:15:04+00:00","article_modified_time":"2021-06-23T05:25:29+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1024,"height":683,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/GettyImages-1233522792.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Ian Dudgeon","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Ian Dudgeon","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/introducing-irans-president-elect\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/GettyImages-1233522792.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/GettyImages-1233522792.jpg","width":1024,"height":683,"caption":"TEHRAN, IRAN - JUNE 18: Ebrahim Raisi, a candidate in Iran's presidential elections waves to the media after casting his vote at a polling station on June 18, 2021, on the day of the Islamic republic's presidential election. The country's incumbent president, Hassan Rouhani, is ineligible to run again after serving two terms in office. (Photo by Majid Saeedi\/Getty Images)"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/introducing-irans-president-elect\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/introducing-irans-president-elect\/","name":"Introducing Iran\u2019s president-elect | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/introducing-irans-president-elect\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2021-06-23T05:15:04+00:00","dateModified":"2021-06-23T05:25:29+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/260e7ee6c4373d9bc7dff029df65e182"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/introducing-irans-president-elect\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/introducing-irans-president-elect\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/introducing-irans-president-elect\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Introducing Iran\u2019s president-elect"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/260e7ee6c4373d9bc7dff029df65e182","name":"Ian Dudgeon","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d3c9536900bdb17085b34bba23a3850f?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d3c9536900bdb17085b34bba23a3850f?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Ian Dudgeon"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/ian-dudgeon\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65259"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/205"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65259"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65259\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":65269,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65259\/revisions\/65269"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/65261"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65259"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65259"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65259"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}