{"id":65321,"date":"2021-06-25T15:12:40","date_gmt":"2021-06-25T05:12:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=65321"},"modified":"2021-06-25T15:12:40","modified_gmt":"2021-06-25T05:12:40","slug":"china-military-watch-9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/china-military-watch-9\/","title":{"rendered":"China military watch"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

As the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party approaches, the world is watching closely to see what China does as it tries to realise President Xi Jinping\u2019s \u2018China dream\u2019 and achieve \u2018national rejuvenation\u2019. Ultimately, Xi seeks to position the People\u2019s Republic of China as the leader of a new international order that reflects Beijing\u2019s core aims.<\/p>\n

In their new ASPI report, To deter the PRC …<\/em><\/a>, Kyle Marcrum and Brendan S. Mulvaney note that the Chinese government is attempting to \u2018redefine\u2019 the international order to correlate with its national interests. China is challenging the global status quo and using coercion and \u2018wolf warrior\u2019 diplomacy in an effort to shape the international order to its liking.<\/p>\n

The report refers to an authoritative People\u2019s Liberation Army publication<\/a>, the 2013 Science of military strategy<\/em>, which outlines Chinese conceptions of deterrence. Marcrum and Mulvaney argue that China\u2019s definition of \u2018deterrence\u2019 looks a lot like what Westerners would call \u2018coercion\u2019, prompting speculation about the actions China may take to realise Xi\u2019s \u2018China dream\u2019\u2014a dream that includes the unification of Taiwan and the PRC.<\/p>\n

The report\u2019s insights point to a particular challenge facing Western liberal democracies in considering the prospect of a major military crisis over Taiwan or in the South China Sea in coming years. If deterrence in a traditional sense is the use of a declared or implied threat to prevent an action inimical to the interests of the deterring power, a Chinese approach that is more coercive\u2014forcing an opponent to act according to the interests of the coercing state\u2014would be seen from the West as aggression. There\u2019s a risk that failures in Beijing and Washington to understand each other\u2019s motives and \u2018strategic cultures\u2019 could cause the rapid escalation of any future crisis over Taiwan, leading to war by miscalculation.<\/p>\n

In recent months, China has engaged in aggressive naval patrols<\/a> around Taiwan and has regularly sent flights of warplanes into Taiwan\u2019s air defence identification zone. The most recent incident<\/a> involved a record 28 military aircraft earlier this month. Such flights can certainly be interpreted as a form of coercion, to pressure the government in Taipei to accept China\u2019s demands for unification on Beijing\u2019s terms. They would also be driven by a desire to deter Taiwan from formally declaring independence. In addition, every flight generates useful intelligence for the PLA on Taiwanese military capabilities and at the same time adds pressure on Taiwan\u2019s forces that over time could wear down their readiness through attrition.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s now understandable concern that following the 100th anniversary celebrations on 1 July, China will ramp up pressure on Taiwan, particularly in grey-zone operations\u2014a coordinated series of actions below the level that would generate a US military response but that would increase pressure on Taipei to bend to Beijing\u2019s demands for unification. At the same time, it\u2019s likely that China will intensify its efforts to isolate Taiwan diplomatically to accentuate its vulnerability to coercive pressure. Beijing could also attempt to increase pressure against a move towards greater independence in the lead-up to Taiwan\u2019s 2024 presidential election and against any form of external intervention to assist the island.<\/p>\n

Taiwan\u2019s profile has been enhanced by its successful response to the Covid-19 pandemic. The rally-round-the-flag effect has helped<\/a> the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) gain support. Other countries, especially the US and its allies, have not only recognised Taiwan\u2019s importance in international engagements both economically and diplomatically, but also become more willing to support<\/a> Taiwan in public, despite<\/a> China\u2019s inevitable denouncements.<\/p>\n

While it seems the DPP has been able to counter<\/a> Chinese influence and will thus be able to challenge the opposition Koumintang in the 2022 local and 2024 presidential elections, domestic disputes<\/a> and the unexpected recent outbreak of Covid-19 have once again exposed the island to the danger of Chinese coercion. China\u2019s recent interference<\/a> on access to Covid-19 vaccines has jeopardised the confidence many Taiwanese had in the DPP.<\/p>\n

Even so, Taiwan is unlikely to bend to Chinese efforts in the grey zone, and of key importance is how \u00a0relations evolve with the US under President Joe Biden. China currently lacks the military ability to invade and occupy Taiwan but is rapidly developing the means to do so. A recent workshop<\/a> held by the US-based China Maritime Studies Institute considered the PLA\u2019s ability\u2014or lack thereof\u2014in the large-scale amphibious warfare necessary to undertake an invasion of Taiwan. In particular, the workshop found that the PLA\u2019s lack of adequate logistics and amphibious lift are key problems, noting China seems to be planning to rely heavily on elements such as its maritime militia. There are also gaps in China\u2019s ability to conduct effective joint operations that could frustrate any island landing campaign, particularly given Taiwan\u2019s potential to develop its own anti-access\/area-denial (A2\/AD) capabilities.<\/p>\n

Will Beijing move to address these gaps in coming years? China will probably prioritise establishing an effective A2\/AD capability to deter or counter US intervention in a cross-strait crisis before it addresses shortfalls in amphibious and logistics capability. How quickly China can address these shortfalls as it also conducts grey-zone operations and builds more powerful A2\/AD capabilities in coming years is a key question.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party approaches, the world is watching closely to see what China does as it tries to realise President Xi Jinping\u2019s \u2018China dream\u2019 and achieve …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1310,"featured_media":65327,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,1414,392,2400],"class_list":["post-65321","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-pla","tag-taiwan","tag-taiwan-strait"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChina military watch | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/china-military-watch-9\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China military watch | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party approaches, the world is watching closely to see what China does as it tries to realise President Xi Jinping\u2019s \u2018China dream\u2019 and achieve ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/china-military-watch-9\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-06-25T05:12:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/GettyImages-950940020.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"656\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Elena Yi-Ching Ho\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Elena Yi-Ching Ho\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/china-military-watch-9\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/GettyImages-950940020.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/GettyImages-950940020.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":656,\"caption\":\"This photo taken on April 24, 2018 shows a J15 fighter jet landing on China's sole operational aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, during a drill at sea. - A flotilla of Chinese naval vessels held a \\\"live combat drill\\\" in the East China Sea, state media reported early April 23, 2018, the latest show of force by Beijing's burgeoning navy in disputed waters that have riled neighbours. 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