{"id":65648,"date":"2021-07-12T06:00:38","date_gmt":"2021-07-11T20:00:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=65648"},"modified":"2021-07-11T15:50:01","modified_gmt":"2021-07-11T05:50:01","slug":"aspis-decades-building-submarines-and-warships","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/aspis-decades-building-submarines-and-warships\/","title":{"rendered":"ASPI\u2019s decades: Building submarines and warships"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"641\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-65652\" src=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/20100924ran8109938_025.t4c9c287d.m1200.xbekkCzi_woNuQywj-1024x641.jpg\" \/><\/figure>\n<p><em>ASPI celebrates its 20th anniversary this year. This series looks at ASPI\u2019s work since its creation in August 2001.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Australian naval shipbuilding has a long history. Calling it a chequered history only just captures the drama and the dollars of the determination to make our own ships and submarines.<\/p>\n<p>More than any other area of defence procurement, shipbuilding consistently <a href=\"https:\/\/s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com\/ad-aspi\/import\/aspi_shipbuilding.pdf?W72vhn9RhZWoKZsBb2j0Xg1SnL5uOa7Q\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">captures the nation\u2019s attention<\/a>, Hugh White, ASPI\u2019s first executive director, observed in 2002, \u2018from the troubled Government shipyards of the 1950s and 1960s through to the Collins submarine project of the 1990s. Naval construction is a challenging, and at times risky, billion-dollar business\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>After selling off its defence factories, the federal government spent the final two decades of the 20th century insisting on arm\u2019s-length competition for all defence contracts.<\/p>\n<p>Then, in 2001, the government announced a new approach. It would reduce competition and instead build long-term relationships with major defence suppliers. Shipbuilding\u2014\u2018the jewel in the defence industry crown\u2019\u2014would be the testbed, and an ASPI report offered proposals for \u2018<a href=\"https:\/\/s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com\/ad-aspi\/import\/aspi_shipbuilding.pdf?W72vhn9RhZWoKZsBb2j0Xg1SnL5uOa7Q\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">modest but valuable<\/a>\u2019 reform:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Do not force an outcome on the industry as a whole. Let commercial forces decide how many shipbuilders we can support in this country.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Smooth out the shipbuilding workload later in the decade, so the industry does not face a boom and bust cycle.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Reform naval repair and maintenance, to better support the ships at sea and the industry.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sell ASC [Australian Submarine Corporation] to the highest competent bidder, allowing new firms to enter the industry which might be able to bring non-defence work to the corporation.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Avoid buying Australian-unique systems which seldom offer operational advantages to offset the very high costs and risks they impose.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Reviewing the Collins-class submarine in 2006, Patrick Walters called it Australia\u2019s most <a href=\"https:\/\/s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com\/ad-aspi\/import\/SI_Collins.pdf?H72ax4V6Bjoc0Iitxe30NgIdwCx29nW1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ambitious and controversial<\/a> defence project:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>No major defence procurement project in Australian history has generated such an extraordinary saga of strategic, commercial and bureaucratic rivalries, technical snags, cultural misunderstandings, political interference and genuine national achievement as the building of the Collins Class vessels.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Walters concluded that the Commonwealth\u2019s $5 billion investment in Collins had given Australia a key strategic asset and greatly boosted the skills of our naval construction industry.<\/p>\n<p>In <a href=\"https:\/\/s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com\/ad-aspi\/import\/Policy_analysis16.pdf?P3TVXBls3L5HMBtUhUuUivUCPnrDVZsP\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Keeping our heads below water<\/em><\/a>, Andrew Davies in 2008 advocated going from the six Collins boats to 12 future submarines:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The project risks arising from the \u2018stop start\u2019 approach to building submarine classes could be mitigated by a rolling production model of continuous building. That would require a fleet of probably twelve boats to sustain, but the unit cost of each would be brought down and industry sustainment would be much more manageable. This approach would require a sustained government funding commitment beyond the usual forward estimate period.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The desire to load the new design with high-end capabilities at the leading edge of submarine technology, Davies wrote, must be balanced against the need for a design that could be delivered close to schedule and budget.<\/p>\n<p>Davies gave the 2009 defence white paper a tick for announcing 12 new submarines, but also a kick for a significant omission: it gave no cost estimate for the project. To fill that hole, Davies and Sean Costello offered their estimate\u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com\/ad-aspi\/import\/SI_48_Submarines.pdf?eP_LFL48ZkTV2rVkVXg3a7_x5gXNpf6f\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">$36 billion (in 2009 dollars)<\/a>\u2014a controversial calculation, subject to much argument, that eventually became the benchmark figure.<\/p>\n<p>At $3.04 billion each, the most expensive conventional submarines ever built would be large, complex and expensive\u2014and a bespoke Australian design. Because ASC had been retained under government ownership, Davies and Costello wrote, the Commonwealth would be better placed to evaluate the designs, but \u2018ASC should not be handed the build contract as a fait accompli\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>In 2010, ASPI went <a href=\"https:\/\/s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com\/ad-aspi\/import\/SR31_Naval_gazing.pdf?Pweln.u49uIY6eD836yQW8tjUZikHcEj\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Naval gazing<\/em><\/a> to consider the future of Australia\u2019s shipbuilding and repair sector, drawing views from the federal and state governments and industry:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Some common themes emerged: the challenge of delivering the Defence White Paper\u2019s planned expansion of the naval fleet, the need to manage the workflow for industry to avoid a \u2018boom and bust\u2019 pattern, and the need for Australian industry to be competitive in a global marketplace.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>At the end of 2011, Andrew Davies lamented that the nation&#8217;s biggest ever engineering undertaking, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/report\/subaqueana-australis-future-evolution-australias-submarines\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Subaqueana australis<\/em><\/a><em>,<\/em> was listing. The saga of the Collins fleet made Canberra uncomfortable about \u2018throwing good money after bad\u2019 on the future submarine. The principals in charge of the project weren\u2019t making an authoritative case to steer ahead.<\/p>\n<p>Treating Collins and the future submarine as stand-alone problems, Davies said, increased the chance of a future capability gap between the two classes. Fixing the Collins\u2019 problems and developing technologies to go into the future boats could be the same activity. Davies\u2019 judgement was that an \u2018evolved Collins\u2019 looked the best bet.<\/p>\n<p>In 2012, Davies and Mark Thomson pronounced that the promise of the 2009 defence white paper for 2030\u2014a force of 12 new, highly capable, long-range submarines\u2014wasn\u2019t going to happen: \u2018We\u2019re already past the point at which a force of that size and capability can be in place even by the mid\u20112030s.\u2019<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com\/ad-aspi\/import\/SI57_Mind_the_gap_sub_options.pdf?lKp8rdpU_QuXdRLCGCVj7vyOgTfV1Yws\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Mind the gap<\/em><\/a> explored the options to fill the gap, to get serious about subs: \u2018The government needs to ratchet up the priority of the project and marshal the resources needed to accomplish the task.\u2019<\/p>\n<p>After the election of the Abbott government in 2013, ASPI held a conference to discuss Australia\u2019s submarine choice. Feedback from the 220 attendees pointed to a striking message: \u2018the <a href=\"https:\/\/s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com\/ad-aspi\/import\/Strategy_submarine_choice.pdf?iQ_QB1RJZnzOHnJfHr8DWZmV5xlT_hGd\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">lack of agreement<\/a> from Defence, the Navy and the Australian Government on design, capability requirements and numbers for the Future Submarine project\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>The Abbott government turned towards a version of Japan\u2019s Soryu-class submarine (dubbed \u2018Option J\u2019), setting up a competition with designs from Germany or France.<\/p>\n<p>The battle over the new boat bounced in many directions, from the billions to the battery technology. Why should Australia <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/report\/why-australia-should-build-its-own-submarines\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">build its own submarines<\/a>? What were the benefits of deepening the <a href=\"https:\/\/s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com\/ad-aspi\/import\/SI85_Submarines_option_J.pdf?lOhZ327Y03jr8bhwBzdr6VFGdz5cBbJZ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Japan defence relationship<\/a>? In <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/report\/japan-versus-europe-quest-build-australias-future-submarine\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Japan versus Europe<\/a>, would Prime Minister Tony Abbott would do a \u2018captain\u2019s pick\u2019 for Japan. The sub was a wonderful <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/report\/japan-versus-europe-quest-build-australias-future-submarine\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">case study<\/a> of defence acquisition, Davies observed:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Because of its scale and time frame, it spans every aspect of defence decision-making from long-term strategic crystal ball gazing, including the possible impact of future technologies, through military strategy development and force structuring, all the way to robust politics of shipyard jobs.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>For <em>The Strategist<\/em>, the submarine has consistently generated headlines, with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/click-go-readers-strategist-top-10-2017\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">arguments<\/a> for\u00a0big submarines,\u00a0little submarines,\u00a0conventional submarines,\u00a0nuclear submarines, no submarines, and the protest that Australia\u2019s ultimate choice was a preposterous submarine.<\/p>\n<p>The Turnbull government\u2019s 2016 choice of France\u2019s DCNS (now Naval Group) as the international partner for the design of the 12 subs merely ended one stage of the saga.<\/p>\n<p>The dollars being fed the boat made it <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-very-hungry-future-submarine\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u2018the very hungry future submarine\u2019<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com\/ad-aspi\/2020-11\/SR%20161%20Submarines_Your%20questions%20answered.pdf?wIOA0OmHVANberKRdkahqghNwBef796O\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Submarines: your questions answered<\/em><\/a>, published in November 2020, had nearly 40 significant questions to answer. The specialist world of defence procurement could provoke argument at an Aussie barbecue, Peter Jennings noted:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Why are they so expensive? Why do we need 12\u00a0of them? Why build them here? Why not nuclear propulsion? Why a French design? Why not an American, German, Japanese or Swedish design? Aren\u2019t submarines obsolete, to be replaced by drones? Won\u2019t technology make the oceans transparent?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Australia set out on a multi-decade undertaking to build ships and subs, but in 2018 Andrew Davies worried that we were <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/shipbuilding-making-it-up-as-we-go-along\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">making it up as went go along<\/a> in a high-risk enterprise, with inadequate governance, and a piecemeal approach to managing risk.<\/p>\n<p>Reflecting on ASPI\u2019s two decades of worrying about the cash\u2013kit\u2013capability nexus, Davies lamented:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>I think we\u2019re still <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/farewell-writing-arms\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">paying too much<\/a>, both in dollar terms and in broader opportunity costs, for our defence capability. And we\u2019re being too patient about getting it. I haven\u2019t won many friends in defence industry with my views on local procurement versus off-the-shelf purchases, but that\u2019s something I\u2019m unrepentant about. What we have today is an uneasy amalgam of defence capability development and defence industry sector support, hiding behind a veneer of \u2018sovereign capability\u2019 or \u2018jobs and growth\u2019.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>If Australia\u2019s strategic circumstances looked more benign, Davies wrote, this would be only a misuse of resources, \u2018but it runs the risk of also being a dreadful strategic oversight\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>Since Vietnam, Michael Shoebridge wrote in 2018, Australia had had a small defence force with a clear technological edge over potential adversaries. That had given governments confidence that Australian forces would prevail\u2014and suffer minimal casualties.<\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately, Shoebridge noted, that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-return-of-combat-losses\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">edge had dissipated<\/a> because of military modernisation across the region. Regional militaries operating near-peer capabilities would inflict combat losses on the Australian Defence Force:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Ships, aircraft and vehicles that are lost in combat with their ADF operators are almost impossible to replace in a timely way given their complex nature. The lead time for getting a new ship is at least five years. For an F-35, it\u2019s a matter of joining a global queue.<\/p>\n<p>But even if a new platform was available, the bigger limiting factor to sustaining combat of this type is that replacing skilled military personnel takes years, and, in some cases, over a decade. That means we might be deploying a force that\u2019s unable to sustain itself against losses long enough to prevail. That\u2019s a fancy way of saying it would probably lose.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The changing risk equation meant the Defence Department should focus beyond the low-number, high-capability formula it had used for decades.<\/p>\n<p>As well as protecting advanced kit from loss, Shoebridge said, Defence needed lots of complementary consumables that could be deployed, lost and replaced in numbers.<\/p>\n<p>Australia\u2019s chequered history of shipbuilding faces a crowded and complex strategic chessboard.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ASPI celebrates its 20th anniversary this year. This series looks at ASPI\u2019s work since its creation in August 2001. Australian naval shipbuilding has a long history. Calling it a chequered history only just captures the &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":65652,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[44,253,1051,579],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>ASPI\u2019s decades: Building submarines and warships | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/aspis-decades-building-submarines-and-warships\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ASPI\u2019s decades: Building submarines and warships | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"ASPI celebrates its 20th anniversary this year. 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