{"id":65854,"date":"2021-07-20T13:30:51","date_gmt":"2021-07-20T03:30:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=65854"},"modified":"2021-07-20T16:42:58","modified_gmt":"2021-07-20T06:42:58","slug":"france-precipitates-abrupt-end-to-noumea-accord-in-new-caledonia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/france-precipitates-abrupt-end-to-noumea-accord-in-new-caledonia\/","title":{"rendered":"France precipitates abrupt end to Noumea Accord in New Caledonia"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The French government\u2019s decision to hold New Caledonia\u2019s third independence referendum in December this year signals the early termination of the Noumea Accord, the last of the pacts that have underpinned stability in Australia\u2019s near neighbour for 30 years. While parameters have been proposed for what happens in the near and longer terms,\u00a0unease and division prevail,<\/a>\u00a0with little time now to resolve deep differences.<\/p>\n

The announcement of the early referendum date\u2014it could have been held as late as November 2022, the preferred independence party position\u2014came after a\u00a0difficult meeting in Paris<\/a>. A major independence party declined to attend, and a loyalist party leader pulled out, refusing to even discuss a possible later date.<\/p>\n

Overseas Territories Minister S\u00e9bastien\u00a0Lecornu acknowledged that France\u2019s decision<\/a>\u00a0was not consensual but fell within its constitutional powers.\u00a0Emmanuel Macron\u2019s government no doubt had an eye to France\u2019s presidential and parliamentary elections in April and June 2022, seeking to head off mutual complications between the New Caledonian and national campaigns. New Caledonian issues are hardly on the national agenda. However, it was bloody violence after\u00a0independence leaders took police hostages,\u00a0between the two rounds of presidential elections in 1988, that brought civil disturbances over independence to a head. No French administration would want to risk a repeat. And national parties do take a position on New Caledonian issues locally. On the other hand, the \u2018loss\u2019 of New Caledonia to France should the vote favour independence, or the resurgence of violence after a \u2018no\u2019 vote, may well dent presidential candidates\u2019 campaigns.<\/p>\n

France is also under pressure from the United Nations and the Pacific Islands Forum to organise the vote impartially, after Kanaks boycotted a disastrous 1987 referendum.<\/p>\n

Clearly the risk of\u00a0an earlier vote was judged worthwhile, possibly assuming a third\u00a0rejection of independence. The first two referendums favoured staying with France,\u00a0but\u00a0saw an increase\u00a0in\u00a0independence support from 43.3% in 2018 to a not inconsiderable 47.6% in 2020,\u00a0primarily from indigenous Kanaks. Even if the third referendum again rejects independence,\u00a0such a large indigenous pro-independence minority means the issues will persist<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Independence leaders, hoping for the maximum time to muster support beyond 50%, responded to the announcement by\u00a0noting that the decision was unilateral<\/a> and that they didn\u2019t support it<\/a>. The pill was bitter, particularly for the oldest independence party, the Union Cal\u00e9donienne<\/a>. It had attended the meeting and offered a major shift in its position by conceding ongoing relations with France beyond independence, something its coalition partner Palika has supported since 2017.<\/p>\n

Despite clumsy handling of the Paris meeting, and independence party reactions to the December referendum date, the meeting made some tentative progress. A\u00a0short unpublicised paper was agreed by those who did attend that commits the parties to work together for a common future and sets parameters for what happens immediately after the referendum.<\/p>\n

Regardless of the outcome, an 18-month transition period follows the vote. Territorial partition is rejected. In the event of a \u2018yes\u2019 to independence, there would be immediate transitions (for example, curtailed French financial transfers), longer term transitions (training around justice and law and order), efforts towards a partnership with France (heavily qualified as \u2018without guarantee of success\u2019) and unspecified access to double nationality. In the event of a \u2018no\u2019, the right to self-determination would remain, New Caledonia would stay on the UN list of non-self-governing territories for the transition, responsibilities already transferred would remain, and France would continue its support.<\/p>\n

Most significantly for independence supporters, the restricted electorate on which local congress elections are based would be \u2018partially opened\u2019, altering the fundamental concession of the peace agreements since 1988 that\u00a0protected the\u00a0rights of longstanding residents as opposed to newer arrivals.<\/p>\n

The paper foreshadows ad hoc discussions beyond the third referendum\u00a0to be followed by\u00a0a further \u2018planning referendum\u2019\u00a0in mid-2023. In the case of a \u2018no\u2019 to independence,\u00a0this vote\u00a0would endorse institutional and governance changes necessary with the lapse of the Noumea Accord.<\/p>\n

In the case of independence, a vote would relate to the \u2018constitution\u2019 of a new state, specifying \u2018the link with France\u2019. Here,\u00a0fundamental questions arise\u00a0as to\u00a0who would vote. Independence leaders would no doubt favour\u00a0only longstanding residents.<\/p>\n

Separately, on 15 July,\u00a0France\u2019s high commissioner in Noumea<\/a>\u00a0released a longer discussion document<\/a> on the various consequences of either a \u2018yes\u2019 vote or a \u2018no\u2019 vote.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, independence\u00a0leaders have finally\u00a0agreed on a president<\/a>\u00a0in the local government, after five months of discord. They had\u00a0withdrawn from cabinet<\/a>\u00a0over grievances at their treatment in the collegial government, and subsequently won a majority for the first time.<\/p>\n

These developments show that\u00a0December\u2019s\u00a0third\u00a0independence\u00a0vote is only the beginning of uncertain negotiations for the future. And New Caledonia is back on the security agenda for Australia after 30 years.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The French government\u2019s decision to hold New Caledonia\u2019s third independence referendum in December this year signals the early termination of the Noumea Accord, the last of the pacts that have underpinned stability in Australia\u2019s near …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":258,"featured_media":65859,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[291,958,921],"class_list":["post-65854","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-france","tag-independence","tag-new-caledonia"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFrance precipitates abrupt end to Noumea Accord in New Caledonia | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/france-precipitates-abrupt-end-to-noumea-accord-in-new-caledonia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"France precipitates abrupt end to Noumea Accord in New Caledonia | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The French government\u2019s decision to hold New Caledonia\u2019s third independence referendum in December this year signals the early termination of the Noumea Accord, the last of the pacts that have underpinned stability in Australia\u2019s near ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/france-precipitates-abrupt-end-to-noumea-accord-in-new-caledonia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-07-20T03:30:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-07-20T06:42:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/GettyImages-1233218478-e1626751496858.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"900\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"511\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Denise Fisher\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Denise Fisher\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/france-precipitates-abrupt-end-to-noumea-accord-in-new-caledonia\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/GettyImages-1233218478-e1626751496858.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/GettyImages-1233218478-e1626751496858.jpg\",\"width\":900,\"height\":511,\"caption\":\"(From R) Secretary General of the Elysee Palace Alexis Kohler, French President Emmanuel Macron and French Overseas Minister Sebastien Lecornu meet (from L) President of the Government of New Caledonia and President of Le Rassemblement right wing party Thierry Santa, president of the Assembly of New Caledonia's South Province\u00a0Sonia Backes, President of the Union Caledonienne (UC) party Daniel Goa, President of the Congress of New Caledonia, and leader of the Union Caledonienne (UC) Roch Wamytan and president of UC Renouveau Jacques Lalie, to discuss the consequences of the forthcoming referendum on New Caledonia self-determination and its date at the Elysee Palace in Paris on June 1, 2021. - A third and final referendum on New Caledonia self-determination as provided for under the terms of a decolonisation plan agreed in 1998 is to take place before October 2022. (Photo by Bertrand GUAY \/ POOL \/ AFP) (Photo by BERTRAND GUAY\/POOL\/AFP via Getty Images)\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/france-precipitates-abrupt-end-to-noumea-accord-in-new-caledonia\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/france-precipitates-abrupt-end-to-noumea-accord-in-new-caledonia\/\",\"name\":\"France precipitates abrupt end to Noumea Accord in New Caledonia | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/france-precipitates-abrupt-end-to-noumea-accord-in-new-caledonia\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2021-07-20T03:30:51+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-07-20T06:42:58+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/0308a4f9235b78bc5f237261b0a53ca8\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/france-precipitates-abrupt-end-to-noumea-accord-in-new-caledonia\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/france-precipitates-abrupt-end-to-noumea-accord-in-new-caledonia\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/france-precipitates-abrupt-end-to-noumea-accord-in-new-caledonia\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"France precipitates abrupt end to Noumea Accord in New Caledonia\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/0308a4f9235b78bc5f237261b0a53ca8\",\"name\":\"Denise Fisher\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/deae12009095a0163139c1f94e9ea73c?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/deae12009095a0163139c1f94e9ea73c?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Denise Fisher\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/denise-fisher\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"France precipitates abrupt end to Noumea Accord in New Caledonia | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/france-precipitates-abrupt-end-to-noumea-accord-in-new-caledonia\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"France precipitates abrupt end to Noumea Accord in New Caledonia | The Strategist","og_description":"The French government\u2019s decision to hold New Caledonia\u2019s third independence referendum in December this year signals the early termination of the Noumea Accord, the last of the pacts that have underpinned stability in Australia\u2019s near ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/france-precipitates-abrupt-end-to-noumea-accord-in-new-caledonia\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2021-07-20T03:30:51+00:00","article_modified_time":"2021-07-20T06:42:58+00:00","og_image":[{"width":900,"height":511,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/GettyImages-1233218478-e1626751496858.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Denise Fisher","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Denise Fisher","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/france-precipitates-abrupt-end-to-noumea-accord-in-new-caledonia\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/GettyImages-1233218478-e1626751496858.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/GettyImages-1233218478-e1626751496858.jpg","width":900,"height":511,"caption":"(From R) Secretary General of the Elysee Palace Alexis Kohler, French President Emmanuel Macron and French Overseas Minister Sebastien Lecornu meet (from L) President of the Government of New Caledonia and President of Le Rassemblement right wing party Thierry Santa, president of the Assembly of New Caledonia's South Province\u00a0Sonia Backes, President of the Union Caledonienne (UC) party Daniel Goa, President of the Congress of New Caledonia, and leader of the Union Caledonienne (UC) Roch Wamytan and president of UC Renouveau Jacques Lalie, to discuss the consequences of the forthcoming referendum on New Caledonia self-determination and its date at the Elysee Palace in Paris on June 1, 2021. - A third and final referendum on New Caledonia self-determination as provided for under the terms of a decolonisation plan agreed in 1998 is to take place before October 2022. (Photo by Bertrand GUAY \/ POOL \/ AFP) (Photo by BERTRAND GUAY\/POOL\/AFP via Getty Images)"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/france-precipitates-abrupt-end-to-noumea-accord-in-new-caledonia\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/france-precipitates-abrupt-end-to-noumea-accord-in-new-caledonia\/","name":"France precipitates abrupt end to Noumea Accord in New Caledonia | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/france-precipitates-abrupt-end-to-noumea-accord-in-new-caledonia\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2021-07-20T03:30:51+00:00","dateModified":"2021-07-20T06:42:58+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/0308a4f9235b78bc5f237261b0a53ca8"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/france-precipitates-abrupt-end-to-noumea-accord-in-new-caledonia\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/france-precipitates-abrupt-end-to-noumea-accord-in-new-caledonia\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/france-precipitates-abrupt-end-to-noumea-accord-in-new-caledonia\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"France precipitates abrupt end to Noumea Accord in New Caledonia"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/0308a4f9235b78bc5f237261b0a53ca8","name":"Denise Fisher","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/deae12009095a0163139c1f94e9ea73c?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/deae12009095a0163139c1f94e9ea73c?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Denise Fisher"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/denise-fisher\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65854"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/258"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65854"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65854\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":65860,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65854\/revisions\/65860"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/65859"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65854"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65854"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65854"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}