{"id":65922,"date":"2021-07-22T14:30:35","date_gmt":"2021-07-22T04:30:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=65922"},"modified":"2021-07-22T12:53:36","modified_gmt":"2021-07-22T02:53:36","slug":"learning-in-the-grey-zone-how-democracies-can-meet-the-authoritarian-challenge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/learning-in-the-grey-zone-how-democracies-can-meet-the-authoritarian-challenge\/","title":{"rendered":"Learning in the grey zone: how democracies can meet the authoritarian challenge"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Australian<\/figure>\n

Innovation by authoritarian nations in the \u2018grey zone\u2019 is becoming one of the most serious challenges facing contemporary democracies. It has long been recognised that future conflicts might be won before any shots are fired<\/a>. But knowing that is cold comfort, because authoritarian states are continually evolving<\/a> their capacity to develop and deploy offensive tools in their cyber-enabled, information and hybrid warfare arsenals.<\/p>\n

Meeting this challenge requires democratic nations, including Australia, to reconceptualise how they think about strategy: its core purposes, its main instruments and capabilities, and what success or failure looks like. Democracy\u2019s authoritarian rivals\u2014chiefly China and Russia\u2014play by different rules<\/a>, have different ideas about vulnerabilities and strengths, and measure outcomes<\/a> in broad wholistic rather than tight linear terms.<\/p>\n

Strategy is a long game and democracies must overcome their tendency to view conflict as an end-state with a precipitating cause, rather than an ongoing phenomenon. Australian Defence Force chief Angus Campbell highlighted this, in a 2019 speech<\/a> to an ASPI conference on future conflict, by tracing General Valery Gerasimov\u2019s stages of war. Importantly, Campbell noted that Western powers tended to only react when a crisis point had been reached\u2014when the war was already half-won.<\/p>\n

Although there\u2019s disagreement<\/a> about a \u2018Gerasimov doctrine\u2019, much like China\u2019s \u2018three warfares\u2019<\/a>, authoritarian states do seem more suited than democracies to longer-term political warfare. Authoritarian leaders don\u2019t have to face periodic elections (or if they do, the outcome is hardly in doubt), which aids continuity in strategic planning and execution. But beyond government structures, both Russia and China have long invested in weaponising political, economic, psychological and social tools for use in grey-zone activities.<\/p>\n

This includes using civilian assets for quasi-military means, like China\u2019s military\u2013civil fusion<\/a> efforts, or Russia\u2019s use of \u2018little green men\u2019 and the Wagner PMC<\/a> group as a transnational proxy defence asset. It also extends to using economic levers as strategic instruments, as witnessed by Beijing\u2019s investment campaigns<\/a> in the South Pacific, and the Kremlin\u2019s manipulation of gas dependencies<\/a> in Europe. In the information domain, reflexive control<\/a>\u2014getting your adversary to act in a way that suits your interests without being aware of it\u2014is coupled with other hybrid tactics like adapting international law, mobilising diasporas, and employing useful idiots and cyber-proxies to spread misinformation and disinformation.<\/p>\n

A longer view of conflict gives authoritarian states escalation control<\/a>, allowing them to dictate the tempo of strategic interaction, and to achieve their objectives by presenting others with a fait accompli\u2014<\/em>as in the South China Sea and Crimea.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s false to argue that the West is helpless against such behaviour. But to combat it more effectively it must learn to intervene earlier, put more effort into ensuring a united approach, seize control of narratives, and be prepared to more frequently use coercive economic and other non-kinetic measures. All of these are necessary from an early stage, rather than eventually offering up sanctions and reprimands as responses to bad behaviour that has already accomplished its objectives. Democracies must act more strategically, and more proactively.<\/p>\n

A common lament is that democracies lack freedom of action compared with authoritarian states in countering grey-zone activities because they\u2019re bound by laws and norms. But assuming that the West\u2019s challengers would forever be content to play by those laws and norms too, rather than sidestepping, adapting or ignoring them, remains a glaring oversight. Democracies must be flexible and adaptive.<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s ability, with seeming impunity, to take over Crimea, attempt to kill dissidents<\/a> abroad, co-opt politicians<\/a>, bomb munitions depots<\/a> in the Czech Republic, and launch adaptive cyberattacks and information operations<\/a> against NATO members serves as a force multiplier. It suggests Russia is strong and assertive while democracies are flat-footed, reactive and incapable of firm united responses. It\u2019s a similar story when Beijing changes the maritime geography<\/a> of the South China Sea, targets diaspora communities with transnational repression<\/a>, buys influence<\/a> in Australian society, and undermines the multilateral trading order with its deliberately bilateral Belt and Road Initiative.<\/p>\n

This underscores the need for democracies to find ways to be adaptive without compromising their core values. Indeed, to alter an adversary\u2019s behaviour in the grey zone\u2014to deter it\u2014will require a dynamic process with a variety of partners, rather than a static one in which the game and the players are fixed.<\/p>\n

That doesn\u2019t mean that laws and norms are useless, or that the West should abandon them. But it does mean that they\u2019ll be increasingly unreliable as instruments to constrain behaviour, especially in a more fluid environment where varied interpretations of law will allow states to forum-shop<\/a> to advance their interests.<\/p>\n

Like laws, appealing to common values should be done with clear eyes rather than rosy spectacles. In many cases, coalitions to counter authoritarian states will be based on shared threat perceptions, rather than a sense of kinship that some potential allies don\u2019t share (and even sometimes resent). In its recent integrated review<\/a>, the UK has abandoned the term \u2018rules-based order\u2019, stressing that while it seeks to work with democracies, it also will also cooperate pragmatically with those with different values. We shouldn\u2019t fear this. If liberal democratic theory is correct, then the shared habits learned through cooperation will reinforce stability, not undermine it.<\/p>\n

Although Australia is a leader in recognising the threat of grey-zone activities, especially in terms of combatting foreign interference<\/a>, democracies have often been slow to realise that building resilience goes beyond government. Protecting Australia from such pressures can\u2019t be done by regulation and legislation alone. For democracies to successfully insulate themselves from cyber-enabled information warfare, attacks on critical infrastructure, attempts to undermine and fragment their societies, and efforts to marginalise them from their allies requires a whole-of-society effort.<\/p>\n

Leaders must shore up public trust in government and democratic institutions and avoid instrumentalising disinformation for political purposes, and civil society must promote information hygiene. The business, industry and education sectors need to become engaged stakeholders in ensuring transparency over hostile foreign influence and cyberattacks.<\/p>\n

There are no easy ways to generate democratic resilience, but it is a crucial endeavour. Information sharing\u2014rarely a strong suit for siloed government departments and businesses wary of negative press\u2014will need to become the norm rather than the exception.<\/p>\n

Counter-hybrid<\/a> fusion centres, net assessment<\/a> capabilities and other long-range tools and methodologies will be critical to building knowledge about vulnerabilities, identifying threat vectors, and devising appropriate countermeasures. So too will the experience of other nations with potentially useful models. These might include the Swedish<\/a> notion of \u2018total defence\u2019, or Singapore\u2019s<\/a> \u2018six pillars\u2019 (incorporating military, civil, economic, social, digital and psychological components).<\/p>\n

Taken together, a longer-term view of strategy characterised by earlier intervention, a flexible and adaptive approach to coalitions and partnerships, and a more integrated effort to unify governments with societies are the keys for democracies to effectively meet grey-zone challenges.<\/p>\n

The task is not easy, but pursuing it may also help democracies rediscover that their supposed weaknesses\u2014responsiveness, openness to change and the ability to build trust\u2014are their greatest strengths.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Innovation by authoritarian nations in the \u2018grey zone\u2019 is becoming one of the most serious challenges facing contemporary democracies. It has long been recognised that future conflicts might be won before any shots are fired. …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1219,"featured_media":15563,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1858,106,2595,2338],"class_list":["post-65922","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-authoritarianism","tag-democracy","tag-foreign-interference","tag-grey-zone"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLearning in the grey zone: how democracies can meet the authoritarian challenge | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/learning-in-the-grey-zone-how-democracies-can-meet-the-authoritarian-challenge\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Learning in the grey zone: how democracies can meet the authoritarian challenge | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Innovation by authoritarian nations in the \u2018grey zone\u2019 is becoming one of the most serious challenges facing contemporary democracies. It has long been recognised that future conflicts might be won before any shots are fired. ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/learning-in-the-grey-zone-how-democracies-can-meet-the-authoritarian-challenge\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-07-22T04:30:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-07-22T02:53:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/Screen-Shot-2014-09-02-at-4.27.50-pm.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"636\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"382\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Matthew Sussex\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Matthew Sussex\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/learning-in-the-grey-zone-how-democracies-can-meet-the-authoritarian-challenge\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/Screen-Shot-2014-09-02-at-4.27.50-pm.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/Screen-Shot-2014-09-02-at-4.27.50-pm.png\",\"width\":636,\"height\":382,\"caption\":\"Australian Parliament House, Canberra (#404)\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/learning-in-the-grey-zone-how-democracies-can-meet-the-authoritarian-challenge\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/learning-in-the-grey-zone-how-democracies-can-meet-the-authoritarian-challenge\/\",\"name\":\"Learning in the grey zone: how democracies can meet the authoritarian challenge | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/learning-in-the-grey-zone-how-democracies-can-meet-the-authoritarian-challenge\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2021-07-22T04:30:35+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-07-22T02:53:36+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/e65a7b74bbe020a39ba651dc79f50dbd\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/learning-in-the-grey-zone-how-democracies-can-meet-the-authoritarian-challenge\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/learning-in-the-grey-zone-how-democracies-can-meet-the-authoritarian-challenge\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/learning-in-the-grey-zone-how-democracies-can-meet-the-authoritarian-challenge\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Learning in the grey zone: how democracies can meet the authoritarian challenge\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/e65a7b74bbe020a39ba651dc79f50dbd\",\"name\":\"Matthew Sussex\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/6986cc8075914463ed5e59c0b185800b?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/6986cc8075914463ed5e59c0b185800b?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Matthew Sussex\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/matthew-sussex\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Learning in the grey zone: how democracies can meet the authoritarian challenge | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/learning-in-the-grey-zone-how-democracies-can-meet-the-authoritarian-challenge\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Learning in the grey zone: how democracies can meet the authoritarian challenge | The Strategist","og_description":"Innovation by authoritarian nations in the \u2018grey zone\u2019 is becoming one of the most serious challenges facing contemporary democracies. It has long been recognised that future conflicts might be won before any shots are fired. ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/learning-in-the-grey-zone-how-democracies-can-meet-the-authoritarian-challenge\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2021-07-22T04:30:35+00:00","article_modified_time":"2021-07-22T02:53:36+00:00","og_image":[{"width":636,"height":382,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/Screen-Shot-2014-09-02-at-4.27.50-pm.png","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"Matthew Sussex","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Matthew Sussex","Est. reading time":"6 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/learning-in-the-grey-zone-how-democracies-can-meet-the-authoritarian-challenge\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/Screen-Shot-2014-09-02-at-4.27.50-pm.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/Screen-Shot-2014-09-02-at-4.27.50-pm.png","width":636,"height":382,"caption":"Australian Parliament House, Canberra (#404)"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/learning-in-the-grey-zone-how-democracies-can-meet-the-authoritarian-challenge\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/learning-in-the-grey-zone-how-democracies-can-meet-the-authoritarian-challenge\/","name":"Learning in the grey zone: how democracies can meet the authoritarian challenge | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/learning-in-the-grey-zone-how-democracies-can-meet-the-authoritarian-challenge\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2021-07-22T04:30:35+00:00","dateModified":"2021-07-22T02:53:36+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/e65a7b74bbe020a39ba651dc79f50dbd"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/learning-in-the-grey-zone-how-democracies-can-meet-the-authoritarian-challenge\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/learning-in-the-grey-zone-how-democracies-can-meet-the-authoritarian-challenge\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/learning-in-the-grey-zone-how-democracies-can-meet-the-authoritarian-challenge\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Learning in the grey zone: how democracies can meet the authoritarian challenge"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/e65a7b74bbe020a39ba651dc79f50dbd","name":"Matthew Sussex","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/6986cc8075914463ed5e59c0b185800b?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/6986cc8075914463ed5e59c0b185800b?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Matthew Sussex"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/matthew-sussex\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65922"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1219"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65922"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65922\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":65932,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65922\/revisions\/65932"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15563"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65922"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65922"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65922"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}