{"id":66283,"date":"2021-08-10T12:30:38","date_gmt":"2021-08-10T02:30:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=66283"},"modified":"2021-08-10T12:12:43","modified_gmt":"2021-08-10T02:12:43","slug":"iran-under-new-management-what-could-make-or-break-raisis-presidency","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/iran-under-new-management-what-could-make-or-break-raisis-presidency\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran under new management: what could make or break Raisi\u2019s presidency"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Ebrahim Raisi took on multiple challenges when he became Iran\u2019s new president on 5 August. How he copes with four of them could make or break his presidency\u2014and determine Iran\u2019s level of stability for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n

The four challenges are to resuscitate Iran\u2019s economy and relieve the severe hardship affecting all citizens, to seek pragmatic foreign policy solutions to regional tensions and instability, to respect the rights of all citizens, and to demonstrate the qualities necessary to be a credible successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as supreme leader.<\/p>\n

All four challenges are interdependent. And they are ultimately dependent on the outcome of the US\u2013Iran negotiations aimed at bringing Washington back into the Iran nuclear agreement (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA). After months of \u2018progressive\u2019 bilateral talks in Vienna this year, the negotiations have now stalled.<\/p>\n

According to publicly available information, the major, if not sole, reason the talks have stalled is a US insistence<\/a> that the new agreement include a sentence that obligates Iran to hold further negotiations that limit its missile development and cease support to (adversarial) militant groups in the Middle East. Whether Washington also wants to include a condition that the US\u2019s ongoing JCPOA membership depends on satisfactory progress being made on both of those issues is not known.<\/p>\n

But if Washington has made such a call, that might have triggered Iran\u2019s own opportunistic, albeit rejected, proposal that the US agree that it won\u2019t again unilaterally withdraw from the agreement.<\/p>\n

The exclusion of the matters involving missiles and militant groups from the JCPOA when it was signed in 2015 was a major reason why President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018 and slapped on multiple economic and other sanctions to force Iran to renegotiate. Iran refused, causing Trump to embark on a \u2018maximum pressure\u2019 campaign to precipitate regime change.<\/p>\n

Why President Joe Biden has again pushed Trump\u2019s proposed amendments, which Iran predictably rejected outright, is open to speculation. Biden would have anticipated this rejection, which was accompanied by an outburst<\/a> from Khamenei about distrust of the West. Most likely, Biden pushed them again for domestic political reasons, and to at least partially appease Israel, which strongly opposes the JCPOA.<\/p>\n

The rejection of the amendments by Raisi\u2019s predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, a moderate, would have convinced Biden that the only way to negotiate with Raisi\u2019s conservative government was to make the US rejoining the JCPOA a stand-alone issue, separate from missiles and other \u2018malign\u2019 regional activities.<\/p>\n

A compelling reason for Biden to take this path is to lock Iran quickly into a UN-endorsed commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, that\u2019s subject to verification by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the agreement\u2019s fundamental purpose. Notwithstanding the agreement\u2019s perceived weaknesses, Biden believes it\u2019s better to have Iran in, rather than outside, the tent.<\/p>\n

The most compelling reason for Raisi (no doubt with Khamenei\u2019s approval) to encourage the US to quickly rejoin the JCPOA is to relieve the nation\u2019s extreme economic hardship through the restoration of a functional economy by obligating the US to lift all, or at least most, unilateral sanctions, especially those relating to oil exports and international financial transactions. Lifting these, and removing the related punitive measures against other countries that might breach them, would enable Iran to return to near-normal international trade, attract much-needed foreign investment, recreate related employment opportunities and, potentially, commence rebuilding public optimism in Iran\u2019s economic, and political, future. A number of countries are keen to expand their trade and investment with Iran, including China under the terms of the bilateral comprehensive strategic partnership<\/a> signed this year.<\/p>\n

Given the great distrust between Iran and the US, one Iranian goodwill initiative to convey intent, trust and reliability would be to immediately return to the uranium enrichment and stockpile levels, and full verification procedures, provided for in the agreement. This would also reassure other JCPOA signatories about Tehran\u2019s peaceful nuclear intentions without any loss of face or dignity for Iran.<\/p>\n

What about Iran\u2019s missiles and regional activities? Iran has stood firm about missiles being non-negotiable. It has previously dismissed any formal limitations, citing the formidable weaponry of neighbouring states and at major US regional military bases in Qatar and Bahrain. However, Iran has already limited the range of its missiles<\/a> to 2,000 kilometres to erase fears of developing intercontinental ballistic missiles.<\/p>\n

Iran also claims that its commitment<\/a> in the JCPOA preamble to never acquire nuclear weapons removes any need for an undertaking that it won\u2019t develop nuclear-capable missiles.<\/p>\n

An early statement by Raisi committing his government to contributing constructively to regional peace and stability, and announcing initiatives to demonstrate that commitment, would be timely. He has already flagged his intent<\/a> to forge closer relations with Saudi Arabia, which would be a shrewd starting point.<\/p>\n

Issues that could be addressed jointly to test both sides\u2019 commitment include finding a transparent political solution to the war in Yemen and implementing a joint strategy against the mutual threat posed by al-Qaeda and Islamic State. These could be the springboard for wider cooperation with the Gulf states, including the lessening of Shia\u2013Sunni tensions, especially in Iraq and Lebanon. The stability of Afghanistan is an issue for broader regional outreach.<\/p>\n

However, this logic is not guaranteed to succeed. If Iran or the US plays the zero-sum game\u2014all or nothing\u2014the consequences could be tragic. There are multiple scenarios. One is that the US, deterred by the new Raisi government, doesn\u2019t rejoin the JCPOA or lift its sanctions. Maximum pressure is reinstated and Iran\u2019s crippled economy worsens, precipitating widespread public dissent and demonstrations that are met by brutal repressive measures, attributed to Raisi. This situation morphs into massive civil discord and the breakdown of functional government. The military takes over, probably led by Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, to restore order. The whole regime is dismissed, including Khamenei and Raisi. A new regime is installed.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a not-unfamiliar scenario regionally, and elsewhere. But is it possible in Iran? In 1925 Brigadier General Reza Pahlavi mounted a coup against the ruling Shah and installed himself as monarch. In 1979 the \u2018revolution\u2019 displaced the government and monarchy. In both cases, the trigger was a breakdown of government and civil order. If that happens again, what would it do to regional stability?<\/p>\n

Khamenei\u2019s manipulation of the electoral process to ensure Raisi\u2019s election was a major gamble given the many doubts about his suitability for the job. However, the multiple challenges he faces also pose opportunities. Time should quickly identify winners and losers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ebrahim Raisi took on multiple challenges when he became Iran\u2019s new president on 5 August. How he copes with four of them could make or break his presidency\u2014and determine Iran\u2019s level of stability for the …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":205,"featured_media":66289,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[247,1883,2070],"class_list":["post-66283","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-iran","tag-jcpoa","tag-us-foreign-policy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIran under new management: what could make or break Raisi\u2019s presidency | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/iran-under-new-management-what-could-make-or-break-raisis-presidency\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Iran under new management: what could make or break Raisi\u2019s presidency | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ebrahim Raisi took on multiple challenges when he became Iran\u2019s new president on 5 August. How he copes with four of them could make or break his presidency\u2014and determine Iran\u2019s level of stability for the ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/iran-under-new-management-what-could-make-or-break-raisis-presidency\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-08-10T02:30:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-08-10T02:12:43+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/GettyImages-1332598627.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"683\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Ian Dudgeon\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Ian Dudgeon\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/iran-under-new-management-what-could-make-or-break-raisis-presidency\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/GettyImages-1332598627.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/GettyImages-1332598627.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":683,\"caption\":\"TEHRAN, IRAN - AUGUST 05: Ebrahim Raisi speaks during the swearing-In ceremony for the new Iranian President on August 05, 2021 in Tehran, Iran. (Photo by Meghdad Madadi\/ATPImages\/Getty Images)\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/iran-under-new-management-what-could-make-or-break-raisis-presidency\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/iran-under-new-management-what-could-make-or-break-raisis-presidency\/\",\"name\":\"Iran under new management: what could make or break Raisi\u2019s presidency | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/iran-under-new-management-what-could-make-or-break-raisis-presidency\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2021-08-10T02:30:38+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-08-10T02:12:43+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/260e7ee6c4373d9bc7dff029df65e182\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/iran-under-new-management-what-could-make-or-break-raisis-presidency\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/iran-under-new-management-what-could-make-or-break-raisis-presidency\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/iran-under-new-management-what-could-make-or-break-raisis-presidency\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Iran under new management: what could make or break Raisi\u2019s presidency\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/260e7ee6c4373d9bc7dff029df65e182\",\"name\":\"Ian Dudgeon\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d3c9536900bdb17085b34bba23a3850f?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d3c9536900bdb17085b34bba23a3850f?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Ian Dudgeon\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/ian-dudgeon\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Iran under new management: what could make or break Raisi\u2019s presidency | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/iran-under-new-management-what-could-make-or-break-raisis-presidency\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Iran under new management: what could make or break Raisi\u2019s presidency | The Strategist","og_description":"Ebrahim Raisi took on multiple challenges when he became Iran\u2019s new president on 5 August. How he copes with four of them could make or break his presidency\u2014and determine Iran\u2019s level of stability for the ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/iran-under-new-management-what-could-make-or-break-raisis-presidency\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2021-08-10T02:30:38+00:00","article_modified_time":"2021-08-10T02:12:43+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1024,"height":683,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/GettyImages-1332598627.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Ian Dudgeon","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Ian Dudgeon","Est. reading time":"6 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/iran-under-new-management-what-could-make-or-break-raisis-presidency\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/GettyImages-1332598627.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/GettyImages-1332598627.jpg","width":1024,"height":683,"caption":"TEHRAN, IRAN - AUGUST 05: Ebrahim Raisi speaks during the swearing-In ceremony for the new Iranian President on August 05, 2021 in Tehran, Iran. (Photo by Meghdad Madadi\/ATPImages\/Getty Images)"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/iran-under-new-management-what-could-make-or-break-raisis-presidency\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/iran-under-new-management-what-could-make-or-break-raisis-presidency\/","name":"Iran under new management: what could make or break Raisi\u2019s presidency | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/iran-under-new-management-what-could-make-or-break-raisis-presidency\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2021-08-10T02:30:38+00:00","dateModified":"2021-08-10T02:12:43+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/260e7ee6c4373d9bc7dff029df65e182"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/iran-under-new-management-what-could-make-or-break-raisis-presidency\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/iran-under-new-management-what-could-make-or-break-raisis-presidency\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/iran-under-new-management-what-could-make-or-break-raisis-presidency\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Iran under new management: what could make or break Raisi\u2019s presidency"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/260e7ee6c4373d9bc7dff029df65e182","name":"Ian Dudgeon","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d3c9536900bdb17085b34bba23a3850f?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d3c9536900bdb17085b34bba23a3850f?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Ian Dudgeon"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/ian-dudgeon\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66283"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/205"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66283"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66283\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":66306,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66283\/revisions\/66306"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/66289"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66283"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66283"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66283"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}