{"id":66563,"date":"2021-08-20T10:30:55","date_gmt":"2021-08-20T00:30:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=66563"},"modified":"2021-08-20T09:46:14","modified_gmt":"2021-08-19T23:46:14","slug":"is-irans-new-president-ready-to-bargain-with-the-west","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/is-irans-new-president-ready-to-bargain-with-the-west\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Iran\u2019s new president ready to bargain with the West?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

For years, Iranian moderates, such as former President Hassan Rouhani, tried and failed to reach an understanding with the West. Now, a hardliner is in charge. Does President Ebrahim Raisi\u2019s election spell the end of what Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei once called<\/a> Iran\u2019s \u2018heroic flexibility\u2019 in dealing with the West? In the wake of the Taliban\u2019s takeover of Afghanistan, the question now matters even more.<\/p>\n

The answer is yes and no. Raisi is not going to take up the mantle of attempting to reconcile with the West. The ideological confrontation with the United States is central to the Islamic Republic of Iran\u2019s fundamentalist identity.<\/p>\n

Moreover, both moderates and radicals in Iran still view the strategy of building a proxy-supported Iranian \u2018empire\u2019 across the Middle East\u2014advanced by the late military commander Qassem Suleimani, who was assassinated<\/a> by the US last year\u2014as vital to uphold and advance the Islamic Revolution\u2019s purpose. No true rapprochement is possible between the West and Iran, especially now that hardliners are fully running the show.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s also worth noting that \u2018heroic flexibility\u2019 never applied to Iran\u2019s dealings with Israel\u2014another fundamental bugbear. Raisi\u2019s administration will certainly maintain Iran\u2019s shadow war with the \u2018Zionist entity\u2019.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s recent attack on an Israeli-managed cargo ship near Oman in the Arabian Sea has been viewed by some as a kind of strategic shift\u2014or, at least, escalation\u2014as it represented a blatant violation of freedom of navigation in international waters. But, in truth, it is merely a continuation of a war in which both Iran and Israel have never shown much regard for international norms.<\/p>\n

Israel assumed that, by not using its own merchant fleet\u201499% of its foreign trade is handled by international ships<\/a>\u2014it could avoid such assaults. But just as Iran\u2019s forces in Syria are vulnerable to Israeli attacks, Israeli-linked entities in the Arabian Sea\u2014a theatre thousands of miles from the country\u2019s coast, but close to Iran\u2019s mainland\u2014are vulnerable to Iranian attacks.<\/p>\n

Iran will not forgo the opportunities this represents, not only to impose direct costs on Israel, but also to undermine the Abraham Accords, which, by establishing diplomatic relations between Israel and four Arab states, are viewed by Iran as a strategic setback. Already, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are reaching out to Iran, out of concern that US President Joe Biden\u2019s foreign policy in the region won\u2019t protect their interests.<\/p>\n

But none of this means that Iran is gearing up for a direct confrontation with the West. Raisi has inherited an economy on life support. The Covid-19 pandemic and Western sanctions have cost Iran about 1.5 million jobs<\/a>. Moreover, oil and gas export revenues<\/a> have plummeted; annual inflation<\/a> has reached almost 50%, with the cost of basic foods soaring by nearly 60%.<\/p>\n

Clearly, Khamenei\u2019s 2011 vision<\/a> of a self-reliant Iranian \u2018resistance economy\u2019 hasn\u2019t been realised. Nor will it be. Furthermore, now that Raisi is president, Iran\u2019s hardliners can no longer blame pro-Western moderates for Iran\u2019s economic woes. To stave off potential unrest, Iran\u2019s government must stem the economy\u2019s decline by persuading the international community to ease sanctions, which will require it to reach some sort of understanding with the US over its nuclear program.<\/p>\n

True, Russia and China are Iran\u2019s more natural allies. But neither country will give Iran the resources it needs to sustain its costly proxy wars or reverse its economic decline. China, in particular, views Iran as a pawn in its broader chess match with the US\u2014one that it would willingly sacrifice for, say, an agreement on vital trade issues.<\/p>\n

An Iranian empire in the Middle East is simply not a strategic priority for China. At the same time, Iranian fundamentalists can\u2019t be too happy with their Chinese ally\u2019s brutal crackdown on its Muslim Uyghur population. The bilateral relationship thus does not represent a way out of Iran\u2019s current predicament.<\/p>\n

So, a new nuclear agreement is an existential imperative for Iran. And, as much as he dislikes the idea of striking a deal with the US, Khamenei understands this. Remaining on the threshold of nuclear breakout\u2014a position it attained following America\u2019s withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018\u2014without actually crossing it may be Iran\u2019s current bargaining position. This is what Raisi might have meant when, prior to his election, he upheld Iran\u2019s need to return to the JCPOA<\/a> in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.<\/p>\n

But the real bone of contention lies not in whether the parties are willing to go back to the old JCPOA, but the terms on which Iran would accept the US demand for a new, long-term deal once the JCPOA expires. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has unrealistically called for a \u2018longer and stronger<\/a>\u2019 accord, one that stops Iran from amassing nuclear material for generations, halts its missile tests and ends its support of terrorist groups.<\/p>\n

What is clear is that Washington should do all it can to encourage Iran\u2019s \u2018heroic flexibility\u2019. After America\u2019s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, the last thing the US needs is even more chaos in the Middle East. Likewise, the victory in Afghanistan of the Sunni Taliban\u2014staunch ideological enemies of Shia Iran\u2014should strengthen Iran\u2019s commitment to avoid stoking conflict with the West. Now might be as good an opportunity as the US is going to get to reach a lasting nuclear agreement with Iran.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

For years, Iranian moderates, such as former President Hassan Rouhani, tried and failed to reach an understanding with the West. Now, a hardliner is in charge. Does President Ebrahim Raisi\u2019s election spell the end of …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":484,"featured_media":66565,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[247,1883,2070],"class_list":["post-66563","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-iran","tag-jcpoa","tag-us-foreign-policy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIs Iran\u2019s new president ready to bargain with the West? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/is-irans-new-president-ready-to-bargain-with-the-west\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is Iran\u2019s new president ready to bargain with the West? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"For years, Iranian moderates, such as former President Hassan Rouhani, tried and failed to reach an understanding with the West. 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