{"id":66747,"date":"2021-08-27T06:00:56","date_gmt":"2021-08-26T20:00:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=66747"},"modified":"2021-08-27T08:38:37","modified_gmt":"2021-08-26T22:38:37","slug":"biden-needs-a-foreign-policy-win-a-new-iran-accord-could-provide-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/biden-needs-a-foreign-policy-win-a-new-iran-accord-could-provide-it\/","title":{"rendered":"Biden needs a foreign policy win. A new Iran accord could provide it"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

US President Joe Biden\u2019s foreign policy credentials have long been questioned by critics on both the left<\/a> and the right<\/a> of US politics who contend that his record is littered with bad decisions. On assuming office, Biden inherited a toxic foreign policy legacy from Donald Trump\u2019s administration, but so far he has had mixed success<\/a> in remedying the damage.<\/p>\n

Biden\u2019s decision to proceed with his predecessor\u2019s Afghanistan plan and his inept management of the withdrawal have confirmed the concerns of Biden\u2019s critics.<\/p>\n

The US\u2019s NATO allies, blindsided and exposed by Washington\u2019s thief-in-the-night withdrawal, are now questioning whether America is a reliable partner. And its adversaries\u2014both state and non-state\u2014smell blood and will be looking to capitalise on the symbolism of an apparent US defeat in Afghanistan and the ineptitude of Washington\u2019s strategic policy establishment.<\/p>\n

But Biden still faces an even more significant foreign policy legacy from the Trump era that remains unresolved\u2014the moribund 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action<\/a> (JCPOA) on Iran\u2019s nuclear program.<\/p>\n

To Biden\u2019s credit, his administration has devoted considerable effort to negotiating with Iran on a return to the JCPOA. Initially, there were positive signs that Washington was prepared to make the necessary first step towards renewing the agreement by instituting a broad rollback<\/a> of many US sanctions on Iran. But negotiations stalled due to recalcitrance and prevarication on both sides.\u00a0 Critically, Biden failed to take advantage of the last six months and seal a renewed agreement with a relatively moderate Iranian administration under Hassan Rouhani, who has since been replaced as president by the more hardline Ebrahim Raisi.<\/p>\n

Commentary from Washington in recent weeks suggests that the prospects for a renewed nuclear agreement with Iran are becoming increasingly remote<\/a>. Iran\u2019s nuclear program has also now reached two milestones that suggest that if it hasn\u2019t already passed the point of no return, it soon will.<\/p>\n

In mid-June, Tehran claimed that it had 6.5\u00a0kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%<\/a>, with a further 108\u00a0kilograms enriched to 20%. This indicated that Tehran was well on the way to hitting the 90% enrichment threshold required for weapons-grade uranium. And in mid-August, reports emerged that the International Atomic Energy Agency had verified that Tehran had fabricated 200 grams of uranium metal<\/a> enriched to 20%, a key step in producing a nuclear bomb.<\/p>\n

Since 2018, Tehran has clearly made progress with its capacity to enrich uranium to the level required for a nuclear bomb. But critically, it has also continued to publicise milestones in its nuclear program. This is significant because it suggests that Tehran is still pursuing a nuclear escalation strategy<\/a> intended to force the US to relax sanctions and return to the JCPOA without conditions, and is not necessarily pursuing a final sprint towards a nuclear weapons capability.<\/p>\n

Tehran has also made it clear on multiple occasions that its return to compliance with the JCPOA can be achieved by the US providing sanctions relief. It reiterated this position in mid-August, commenting<\/a>, \u2018If the other parties return to their obligations under the nuclear accord and Washington fully and verifiably lifts its unilateral and illegal sanctions … all of Iran’s mitigation and countermeasures will be reversible.\u2019<\/p>\n

Importantly, Iran\u2019s new president has inherited a litany of challenges that may make his administration more open to compromise. These include a collapsing economy, a coronavirus-fuelled public health crisis<\/a> and protests in the drought-ravaged<\/a> Khuzestan province, home to Iran\u2019s restive Ahwaz Sunni Arab population. The return of the Taliban in Kabul also poses a significant strategic threat <\/a>to Iran and will be viewed with considerable trepidation by Tehran. As noted by Shlomo Ben-Ami, former foreign minister of Israel, a new nuclear agreement is an existential imperative<\/a> for Iran and now might be as good a time as any for Washington to get a lasting agreement.<\/p>\n

However, Biden must avoid the temptation to exploit Iran\u2019s current vulnerability by perpetuating Trump\u2019s disastrous \u2018maximum pressure<\/a>\u2019 strategy or imposing new conditions on Tehran. He should also dispense with any demands to include additional elements<\/a> in a renewed agreement, such as clauses committing Iran to further talks on its ballistic missile program and its support for Shia proxy militias across the Middle East. These conditions risk placing negotiations on a path to failure.<\/p>\n

Biden must also accept that it was Washington, not Tehran, that killed off the JCPOA in 2018. If this means that the US must pay a higher price for Iran\u2019s return to the terms of the agreement, then it should. Washington may not be able to agree to Tehran\u2019s impossible demand for a guarantee<\/a> that future US administrations won\u2019t be able to renege on a new deal. But it should offer separate discussions with Tehran on waiving all non-nuclear sanctions. While this may not satisfy Tehran\u2019s demands initially, if delivered with a commitment to unconditionally and immediately waive all nuclear-related sanctions reimposed by Trump, it may get negotiations back on track. It would also put the ball back in Iran\u2019s court.<\/p>\n

Any concessions Biden makes to Iran will be savaged by his critics in Washington and condemned by opponents of the JCPOA in Israel and Saudi Arabia. But he has more to gain from such an act of good faith than he has to lose. His administration is heading towards another catastrophic foreign policy failure that may lead to another war in the Middle East. The risk that Israel will take matters into its own hands by launching a military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities increases the longer negotiations drag on. Such an attack would ultimately prove self-defeating<\/a>.<\/u><\/p>\n

The Trump administration\u2019s withdrawal from the JCPOA was a catastrophically bad idea that made an Iranian nuclear bomb more likely, not less. Should Biden fail to breathe life into the JCPOA, he will again share the blame with Trump for whatever comes next. But if Biden can get the JCPOA back on track, he will have achieved more than just recommitting Tehran to the terms of the deal. He may have prevented another war. He will also have demonstrated to the other parties to the JCPOA that Washington is again a reliable partner and shown that there is still a place in foreign policy for unilateral acts of good faith.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

US President Joe Biden\u2019s foreign policy credentials have long been questioned by critics on both the left and the right of US politics who contend that his record is littered with bad decisions. On assuming …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":624,"featured_media":66749,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[247,1883,2825,356],"class_list":["post-66747","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-iran","tag-jcpoa","tag-joe-biden","tag-nuclear-weapons"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBiden needs a foreign policy win. 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