{"id":67102,"date":"2021-09-10T12:13:05","date_gmt":"2021-09-10T02:13:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=67102"},"modified":"2021-09-10T12:13:05","modified_gmt":"2021-09-10T02:13:05","slug":"the-bamboo-breaks-thailands-diplomatic-challenge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-bamboo-breaks-thailands-diplomatic-challenge\/","title":{"rendered":"The bamboo breaks: Thailand\u2019s diplomatic challenge"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Thai foreign policy is frequently characterised by the metaphor of bamboo bending with the wind. The simultaneous strength and flexibility of bamboo suggests a foreign policy that is both adaptable and pragmatic in its aim of securing national survival and independence.\u00a0Within this discourse, Thailand blatantly plays one great power off against the others.<\/p>\n

While this could be seen as simply expedient,\u00a0Arne Kislenko\u00a0sees\u00a0Thailand\u2019s diplomacy<\/a>\u00a0as based on \u2018a long-cherished, philosophical approach to international relations\u2019, which is \u2018always solidly rooted\u2019 but \u2018flexible enough to bend whichever way it had to in order to survive\u2019.<\/p>\n

But amid intensified great-power competition, I argue this old narrative of bamboo diplomacy is becoming obsolete. Thailand needs to find a new and sustainable narrative to make sense of the world and position itself within a changing international society. The means to do this\u00a0is\u00a0what I term a \u2018leading from the middle\u2019 strategy.<\/p>\n

The need for a new foreign policy strategy is set against the backdrop of two broad trends\u2014a decline in the level of Thai\u2013US alignment and a rise in Thailand\u2019s engagement with China.<\/p>\n

Thailand confronts a critical juncture in global politics. Besides the Covid-19 pandemic and economic and technological disruption, it finds itself in the midst of a shift in the regional balance of power. Although it is not necessary for Thailand to choose sides between the US and China,\u00a0the Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha\u2019s government, which rhetorically highlights a balanced and good relationship with great powers, in fact is moving closer to China, despite being a US treaty ally.<\/p>\n

Thailand is often dubbed America\u2019s \u2018oldest ally in Asia\u2019. Nevertheless, the perceived absence of the US from the region has changed the\u00a0Thai\u2013US alliance since the Cold War. Moreover, the US Indo-Pacific strategy\u2019s recent focus on great-power competition and the rise of China is at odds with Thailand\u2019s position that China is not a threat.<\/p>\n

There are several characteristics to contemporary Thai\u2013US relations.<\/p>\n

First, the US commitment to the region and the alliance is perceptibly ambivalent. On the economic front, the US declined to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. So far, President Joe Biden\u2019s administration seems not to have considered a return. This signals a lack of long-term US economic commitment in the region. Thailand is not a member, but\u00a0might apply to join<\/a>.<\/p>\n

There also is an obvious gap in high-level US diplomatic interest. Ambassadorial posts to some ASEAN countries and Thailand remain vacant. Thailand has not been on the itinerary of visits by the highest US leadership.\u00a0Biden\u2019s March 2021 interim national security strategic guidance failed to mention Thailand at all.<\/p>\n

Second, the Thai\u2013US alliance is increasingly military-oriented, rather than a comprehensive, multidimensional partnership. The 2020 Joint Vision Statement for the Thai\u2013US Defense Alliance set the goal of \u2018energizing and enhancing\u2019 army-to-army ties.<\/p>\n

But\u00a0the Thai\u2013US alliance has suffered setbacks because of military coups and the lack of common enemies and threat perceptions.<\/p>\n

One example is\u00a0Cobra Gold\u2014the Indo-Pacific region\u2019s largest annual multinational military exercise\u2014which has been co-hosted by Thailand and the US since 1982. It was downgraded immediately following the 2006 and 2014 coups to focus on humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations.<\/p>\n

Another example is access to U-Tapao air base, which is vital to US strategic interests.\u00a0The base in Rayong province is an important logistics hub for American forces.\u00a0In 2016, Thailand made\u00a0US$30 million in upgrades\u00a0<\/a>to the naval airfield, in part to facilitate American logistics. But\u00a0Thailand has refused access for some US operations, such as\u00a0humanitarian relief to the Rohingya during the 2017\u201318 ethnic cleansing campaign in Myanmar.<\/p>\n

Third, Thai\u2013US economic relations face pressing challenges over issues such as the suspension of access to the\u00a0US\u2019s preferential tariff system and the failure of the US to match Chinese infrastructure investment.<\/p>\n

In October last year, President Donald Trump suspended US$817 million in trade preferences for Thailand under the Generalized System of Preferences program, citing the lack of equitable and reasonable market access for US pork products. This challenge remains under Joe Biden\u2019s administration.<\/p>\n

And although the US was one of the three largest foreign direct investors in Thailand during the first half of 2021, it has no equivalent to China\u2019s infrastructure investment and development under the Belt and Road Initiative.<\/p>\n

Fourth, Thai\u2013US relations in the 21st century are unlike during the Cold War when their anticommunism nurtured shared identities and interests. In the past decade or so, Thailand has not simply sought to avoid choosing sides; it has increasingly and actively leaned towards Beijing on key issues.<\/p>\n

Thailand\u2019s increasing shift into China\u2019s orbit of influence has been apparent at least since the 2014 military coup.\u00a0Xi Jinping and Prayut Chan-o-cha characterise Thailand and China as \u2018one family\u2019.<\/p>\n

Military relations between Thailand and China have strengthened considerably following the scaling back of US defence cooperation with Thailand triggered by the 2014 coup. China is replacing the US as Thailand\u2019s main defence partner and arms supplier. It has offered an array of major weapons systems at cheap prices and with no strings attached. They range from main battle tanks and armoured personnel carriers to naval vessels including Thailand\u2019s first diesel-powered S26T submarine in January 2017. There are also joint weapons programs including the DTI-1 guided missile system.<\/p>\n

Joint military exercises have been expanded too. Thailand has participated in more\u00a0combined military exercises<\/a>\u00a0with China than any other Southeast Asian country. The Thai and Chinese special forces have conducted joint exercises since 2005, the annual joint naval exercise Blue Strike since 2010, and a joint air exercise codenamed Falcon Strike from 2015.<\/p>\n

In contrast to many other ASEAN nations, Thailand and China don\u2019t have any serious territorial or maritime disputes\u00a0that\u00a0might negatively affect bilateral relations.\u00a0Thailand envisions China as a partner underpinning prosperity and peace in the region. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies\u2019\u00a02020 survey of strategic elites<\/a>, influential Thais largely viewed China\u2019s growing role as beneficial and were relatively unconcerned about a perceived decline in the US presence in the region.<\/p>\n

Sino-Thai economic relations have deepened in recent years. On the trade front, China is Thailand\u2019s largest trading partner with 12.29% of its exports going to China, compared with 10.75% to the US. Similarly, 20.16% of Thailand\u2019s imports come from China, versus 5.82% from the US. On investment, China surpassed Japan to become Thailand\u2019s major source of foreign direct investment in 2020, and China\u2019s FDI is now 13 times that of the US. Much of that investment is in government infrastructure projects, like the high-speed railway and 5G network. The high-speed rail project will eventually connect Thailand to China via Laos and strengthen Beijing\u2019s north\u2013south infrastructure development. This increasing dependence on China is also endemic in the private sector, at the level of both local businesses and big conglomerates.<\/p>\n

People-to-people relations are being strengthened. China has become the major source of international students for Thai universities and tourists. In 2019, Chinese tourists made up 27.6% of foreign visitors entering Thailand.<\/p>\n

Moreover,\u00a0the appeal of China was accelerated by the imposition of Western sanctions following the 2014 coup, the Covid-19 crisis and Beijing\u2019s vaccine diplomacy.<\/p>\n

So, why doesn\u2019t the old narrative of bamboo diplomacy work anymore?<\/p>\n

The bamboo diplomacy narrative stresses continuity and tradition in foreign policy. It doesn\u2019t anticipate moments of change and rupture in the history of Thai diplomacy.<\/p>\n

Thailand is now at one of those historical crossroads\u00a0driven by three main factors: the rise of China and its attractiveness in security and economic terms; the decline in relative US strength and strategic commitment in the region; and the absence of clarity in Thailand\u2019s own strategic posture and options after the coup.<\/p>\n

The concept of\u00a0bamboo diplomacy implies that Thailand will merely react and adapt to the strategic transformation underway. It is not a recipe for leadership or proactive policy.<\/p>\n

What we really need is a new narrative to make sense of the changing world and to cleverly position Thailand within it.<\/p>\n

Thailand should pursue a leading-from-the-middle strategy. This requires maintaining good relations with all the great powers, while binding them within a rule- or norm-based order. It also requires Thailand to exercise leadership in its own interests by initiating regionwide politico-diplomatic innovations and advocacy. By this, Thailand can seek to reduce strategic tension and uncertainty amid the great-power rivalry and preserve its own autonomy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Thai foreign policy is frequently characterised by the metaphor of bamboo bending with the wind. The simultaneous strength and flexibility of bamboo suggests a foreign policy that is both adaptable and pragmatic in its aim …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1419,"featured_media":67107,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,294,157,1659],"class_list":["post-67102","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-diplomacy","tag-thailand","tag-us"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe bamboo breaks: Thailand\u2019s diplomatic challenge | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-bamboo-breaks-thailands-diplomatic-challenge\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The bamboo breaks: Thailand\u2019s diplomatic challenge | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Thai foreign policy is frequently characterised by the metaphor of bamboo bending with the wind. 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