{"id":67372,"date":"2021-09-21T12:30:12","date_gmt":"2021-09-21T02:30:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=67372"},"modified":"2021-09-21T12:26:58","modified_gmt":"2021-09-21T02:26:58","slug":"aukus-is-an-agreement-missing-a-strategy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/aukus-is-an-agreement-missing-a-strategy\/","title":{"rendered":"AUKUS is an agreement missing a strategy"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

So we\u2019ve gone all in. The trend lines have been there for a while, but as several<\/a> commentators<\/a> have<\/a> pointed out already, the awkwardly named AUKUS is a step change in the level of commitment by Australia to the United States.<\/p>\n

The \u2018forever partnership\u2019 binds us more closely to America at a time when there was starting to be debate, especially among conservative thinkers, about the need for a more independent Australian capability. That debate wouldn\u2019t have passed unnoticed in Washington. Given the apparent willingness of the US to share exceptionally closely held technology, indications are that it is a very deliberate choice on the part of the United States.<\/p>\n

If the strategic rationale of AUKUS is to build capability in the Indo-Pacific and offset China, the tripartite nature of the agreement bears further consideration. Despite cultural affinities and longstanding ties\u2014including a separate shipbuilding program for Australia\u2019s Hunter-class frigates\u2014the United Kingdom is not a natural partner in the Indo-Pacific. That raises the question of whether the US is seeking to bolster the UK\u2019s strategic weight and outlook, at a time when it has retreated back across the Channel. If so, AUKUS may be stretched thin, seeking to cover many foreign policy and strategic objectives across three democracies weakened at home.<\/p>\n

That stretch in the AUKUS arrangement is reflected in the amount of white space in and around the agreement. Of course, that\u2019s not unexpected\u2014new initiatives typically deepen in complexity over time. But it\u2019s easy to underestimate the amount of effort needed to rebase Australia\u2019s own capabilities, especially if, as many argue, urgency in the face of a rising China was one of the factors driving the decision to dump the French submarine contract. On the submarines alone, the Australian government has given itself 18 months to figure out the what and how of the new program.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s going to be tough: it\u2019s a complex endeavour. The tasks include negotiating the termination of current arrangements, reconfiguring infrastructure, and recruiting and retaining the skills needed for a new, complex and dangerous industry.<\/p>\n

More broadly, the White House statement<\/a> reflects a pressing need to uplift not simply Australia\u2019s military capability\u2014a major task in itself\u2014but its technological capability as well. The technology uplift will depend heavily on the very sectors the government has neglected or actively eroded over the past few years. It would be surprising if American analysts of Australia haven\u2019t flagged this as a concern, both in assessing our role as an ally and in shaping this new initiative. While AUKUS has been cast as a defence initiative, it will not succeed unless the government engages civil society and civilian capability more broadly.<\/p>\n

As importantly, the government will need to improve its own administrative and governance capabilities. Australian government prioritisation, procurement and contractual processes and management have lost their discipline and rigour. A more mature and knowledgeable relationship with industry is needed. That in turn implies a re-professionalisation of a public sector derided by its own ministers.<\/p>\n

AUKUS\u2014as proffered thus far\u2014is about cementing old ties and shoring up defences against a rising revisionist power. The statements, the language, don\u2019t offer a vision of the sort of future that we, the United States and the United Kingdom want to see in the region, or globally.<\/p>\n

AUKUS also seems unwarrantedly exclusionary at a time when both Australia and the US need to build more inclusionary structures and processes in the region. Work will be needed to make existing and nascent structures, such as Five Eyes and the Quad, complementary to the new arrangement. Additional effort will be needed to engage nations such as Indonesia, which will now be contemplating a more muscular southern neighbour.<\/p>\n

In short, what the agreement most lacks is a strategy. Pretty words and a bundle of exclusive nuclear technologies for naval propulsion do not fundamentally change the power balances of the Indo-Pacific. And that\u2019s assuming we can digest the rich platter now set before us. It\u2019s yet to be seen whether the price put to the Biden administration by the Morrison government for cementing the cracks and reining in uncertainty is too steep\u2014for Australia, as much as for the United States.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

So we\u2019ve gone all in. The trend lines have been there for a while, but as several commentators have pointed out already, the awkwardly named AUKUS is a step change in the level of commitment …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":861,"featured_media":67375,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[3111,56,21,2397],"class_list":["post-67372","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-aukus","tag-indo-pacific","tag-strategy-2","tag-us-alliances"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAUKUS is an agreement missing a strategy | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/aukus-is-an-agreement-missing-a-strategy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"AUKUS is an agreement missing a strategy | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"So we\u2019ve gone all in. 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