{"id":67499,"date":"2021-09-27T15:00:42","date_gmt":"2021-09-27T05:00:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=67499"},"modified":"2021-09-27T14:56:18","modified_gmt":"2021-09-27T04:56:18","slug":"no-room-for-delay-in-australias-transition-to-nuclear-powered-submarines","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/no-room-for-delay-in-australias-transition-to-nuclear-powered-submarines\/","title":{"rendered":"No room for delay in Australia\u2019s transition to nuclear-powered submarines"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

When journalists used to ask me whether I thought we should continue with the Attack-class submarine program, I\u2019d answer with the old joke<\/a> about the American tourist lost in the back blocks of Ireland. After struggling with his map, he finally sees a shepherd and asks for directions. \u2018How do I get to Dublin?\u2019 The wizened local ponders, then answers: \u2018Well, I wouldn\u2019t start from here.\u2019<\/p>\n

And that was the issue. I wouldn\u2019t have started our transition from the Collins class with the Attack class, but once we were five years into that journey, was there an alternative? Well, the government has now chosen a new path, but as we ponder the road ahead of us, we have to admit we\u2019re even further from Dublin. Defence had been saying the first Attack-class boat would be operational in 2034. It now believes the first future submarine will be in service two to four years later, which would get us to 2036\u20132038. Anthony Albanese, the leader of the opposition, has said<\/a> the boats \u2018would not be in the water until 2040\u2019, which suggests that\u2019s the date he\u2019s been getting in his private briefings.<\/p>\n

While we\u2019ve been struggling with our map, time has continued to pass. Governments can make all the decisions they like, but just as Cher<\/a> lamented, they can\u2019t turn back time. Our submarine transition journey started with the 2009 defence white paper, which stated that Australia would acquire a fleet of 12 new submarines. Back then, the first boat was meant to be operational 16 years later, in 2025. Twelve years down the track, we\u2019re looking at a date in the late 2030s\u2014still at least 16 years away. Put another way, over the past 12 years we haven\u2019t gotten a day closer to the goal.<\/p>\n

Like many of you, we at ASPI are trying to work our way through what the government\u2019s decision means. I\u2019m starting by being agnostic about whether it\u2019s a good idea or not, or a better one than the previous submarine plan, and simply trying to understand what\u2019s involved in successfully transitioning from our Collins fleet to the future nuclear-powered (SSN) fleet. In particular, we\u2019ll be looking at the key risks and what needs to be done to address them.<\/p>\n

The first one that stands out is the capability risk associated with the transition\u2019s new schedule. Trying to visualise that schedule is an assumption-rich activity, but we know some aspects of it. The Collins class was originally planned to start retiring from around 2025. As we moved through time and the future submarine schedule moved off into the future, it became clear that Defence would need to perform a life-of-type extension (LOTE<\/a>) on some Collins boats to ensure they could serve long enough to prevent a capability gap emerging during the transition. Instead of retiring, the boats would go through an additional and enhanced full-cycle docking that would give them an additional 10 years of service.<\/p>\n

As the future submarine schedule evolved<\/a>, it became clear that a larger number of Collins would need to go through the LOTE, and we\u2019ve now reached the point where Defence Minister Peter Dutton has stated<\/a> that all six Collins will be put through LOTEs. The first one will start in 2026, be completed in 2028, and allow that boat to serve until 2038. Subsequent boats will follow on a two-year drumbeat. That\u2019s the first key point to grasp. The LOTE was our strategic mitigator for the capability risk and we\u2019ve already played that card before we start on our new journey.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve a got a reasonable idea where the Collins can get to, but what is it trying to link up to at the other end? That\u2019s where we need to make some assumptions. Let\u2019s say the first SSN will be operational in 2038 in line with some of the government and Defence\u2019s comments (we\u2019ll look in future at whether this is a reasonable assumption). But we also need to understand the delivery schedule for subsequent boats. The Attack class was going to be delivered on a two-year drumbeat to support the goal of continuous naval shipbuilding. If you want continuous shipbuilding with a fleet of eight boats, then a three- to four-year drumbeat is necessary since submarines have a planned life of around 30 years. Doing it any faster than three years seems very hard given the cold start for our submarine industry, the large size of the boats and the unfamiliar technology. Plus, a roughly three-year drumbeat is what the United Kingdom\u2019s Astute-class SSN program has achieved<\/a>. So we\u2019ll go with that.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve entered those assumptions in a table<\/a>. The first observation we can make is that there is no \u2018float\u2019 left in the schedule. The first Collins will be due to retire as the first SSN enters service. Already there\u2019s no margin for any slippage.<\/p>\n

Second, the Collins boats will have an average age of 43 at retirement. They\u2019ll have gone through an extensive program of upgrades, but that\u2019s about 50% longer than they were designed to last. Aside from the question of whether they\u2019ll still provide a relevant capability into the 2040s, ageing systems face reliability issues.<\/p>\n

Third, any SSN delivery drumbeat slower than two years means Collins boats age out faster than SSNs are delivered. That means the number of boats in the fleet will fall. With a three-year SSN drumbeat, the fleet will reach a low point of four submarines around 2046. It won\u2019t get back to six, the current number of boats, until the mid-2050s and won\u2019t reach eight until the end of the 2050s.<\/p>\n

Finally, SSNs provide greater capability that conventional boats, particularly when long transits to the operating area are involved, as they are for our navy. But they still need to be available for operations. Four boats gets you only one or sometimes two available for operations.<\/p>\n

Nothing is completely carved in stone here. The Collins could potentially be operated for longer, perhaps as a training fleet<\/a>, helping to grow the larger number of submariners we\u2019ll need for the SSNs. But this look at a schedule does suggest some high-priority activities to manage risk. One is examining whether we can break out of the timelines needed to build SSNs in Australia so we can get them faster. The other is looking at complementary technologies to hedge capability risk. I\u2019ve noted previously that our submarine fetish means we have become obsessed with them\u2014yet there are many other areas of technology that can deliver some of the effects we seek from submarines faster.<\/p>\n

Over the coming weeks I\u2019ll continue to unpack these issues. But there\u2019s a sobering thought to finish up with. A couple of days ago a conversation with an industry colleague reminded me of a thought I had when the Indonesian submarine KRI Nanggala<\/em> tragically sank in a torpedo training accident on 21 April this year with the loss of all 53 crew. The parallels with where our navy will be in the late 2030s are now even more striking.<\/p>\n

The Nanggala<\/em> was 40 years old. Its last major refit had been completed nearly 10 years earlier. The Indonesian navy was in the process of bringing into service a new class of submarine, simultaneously growing the size of its force and introducing new technologies while needing to keep its older boat going. It no doubt would have been struggling to find sufficient experienced submariners to operate both classes. Meanwhile, Indonesia was being confronted with the coercive behaviour of an aggressive neighbour and its navy needed to demonstrate capability and resolve by showing it had effective submarines.<\/p>\n

Capability transitions are difficult<\/a>. The coming one to nuclear submarines will likely be the most difficult one the Australian Defence Force has faced. There\u2019s no margin for error when dealing with submarines or nuclear safety, let alone both together, but we are already putting ourselves under pressure.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

When journalists used to ask me whether I thought we should continue with the Attack-class submarine program, I\u2019d answer with the old joke about the American tourist lost in the back blocks of Ireland. After …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":767,"featured_media":67502,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[253,2425,457,114],"class_list":["post-67499","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-collins-class","tag-defence-capability","tag-nuclear-submarines","tag-ran"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNo room for delay in Australia\u2019s transition to nuclear-powered submarines | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/no-room-for-delay-in-australias-transition-to-nuclear-powered-submarines\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"No room for delay in Australia\u2019s transition to nuclear-powered submarines | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"When journalists used to ask me whether I thought we should continue with the Attack-class submarine program, I\u2019d answer with the old joke about the American tourist lost in the back blocks of Ireland. 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