{"id":67735,"date":"2021-10-11T12:20:44","date_gmt":"2021-10-11T01:20:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=67735"},"modified":"2021-10-11T13:42:55","modified_gmt":"2021-10-11T02:42:55","slug":"aukus-nuclear-submarines-and-the-tyranny-of-default-thinking","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/aukus-nuclear-submarines-and-the-tyranny-of-default-thinking\/","title":{"rendered":"AUKUS, nuclear submarines and the tyranny of default thinking"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Now that the initial euphoria over the announcement of the AUKUS agreement and Australia\u2019s decision to acquire nuclear submarines has passed, it\u2019s time to unpack some of the deeper meaning. The mandated 18 months of consultation will take place, and there\u2019s the possibility of a new defence white paper<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Frankly, I wouldn\u2019t expect much from either.<\/p>\n

The consultation will result in recommendations, undoubtedly of a technical and political nature, about industrial policy, South Australian appeasement and Royal Australian Navy submariner recruitment and training. The estimated cost of the eight boats might even be revealed. As for a new white paper, why bother? The important decisions have already been made.<\/p>\n

A defence white paper is meant to be a strategic-level document that provides a vision for the nation\u2019s security policy and underpins the armed forces\u2019 acquisition of equipment and concept of warfighting. But the government has already announced its intentions. It has terminated the French submarine contract and declared its plan to acquire nuclear-powered boats with the assistance of the United States and the United Kingdom. This means that the government has finalised the strategic decision-making that a white paper is meant to elucidate. In other words, it\u2019s game over for strategic decision-making within Defence. A new white paper would serve only to justify the choices already made.<\/p>\n

So let\u2019s examine these choices. Clearly the government has decided to further strengthen Australia\u2019s relationship with the US. There\u2019s nothing new or exciting about that. It is Australia\u2019s default setting. By embracing AUKUS, the government also signals its continued faith in the strength of the Anglosphere.<\/p>\n

In seeking AUKUS, Prime Minister Scott Morrison has made a more explicit act of fealty<\/a> to the alliance with the US than even Harold Holt\u2019s Vietnam-era \u2018All the way with LBJ<\/a>.\u2019 He has made a bet on the ability and willingness of the US to protect Australia from China. As bets go, this one is all in.<\/p>\n

As any gambler knows, however, there is no sure thing, and this deal is particularly suss. The first problem is pretty straightforward. Australia won\u2019t receive its nuclear submarines until the late 2030s, if not the 2040s. Even a US admiral thinks it\u2019ll be decades<\/a>. This means Australia will have a capability gap that by the government\u2019s own reasoning cannot be met by a conventional submarine, even a life-extended Collins class.<\/p>\n

Then there\u2019s the issue of the unknown cost. At present, the best guess is that the eight submarines will cost more than the 12 French Attack-class boats. Nuclear submarines are larger and more complex than conventional ones and will require the building of new infrastructure in Adelaide. A sum of around $100 billion doesn\u2019t seem unreasonable. At that price the submarines will consume a large part of the defence budget and the opportunity cost will be the lack of funds for other, perhaps more useful, capabilities.<\/p>\n

The more troubling part of the gamble is its infatuation with the Anglosphere. The heyday of one of its members was so long ago that you have to be an octogenarian to remember it. The other, the US, experienced a violent insurrection against a legitimately elected government just nine months ago and is so riven by partisanship that a civil war isn\u2019t beyond imagination.<\/p>\n

The government\u2019s bet gives the impression that it thinks cultural ties trump interest. Culture is important, but in international relations it\u2019s interest that matters. Unfortunately, despite the enthusiastic friendship and shared language within the Anglosphere, Australia resides in a part of the world that is a low priority for the US. Europe, the Middle East and North Asia matter much more to America than the Southwest Pacific. When the US committed troops to the region in World War II, it wasn\u2019t because America cared about Australia; it was solely because Australia offered a launching point to the Philippines and then to Japan. When empires decline, the peripheries are the first to be cast off.<\/p>\n

Morrison has wagered far too much. Throughout the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, a series of Australian leaders followed the lead of John Howard and made the nation\u2019s flag the most important contribution to the US-led coalition. Other countries did the same. The military capabilities on offer were always of lesser significance. Of course, a war in our region will require a greater commitment than just the flag, but, as former head of the Office of National Assessments Allan Gyngell<\/a> says, in AUKUS Australia has ceded \u2018quite a high degree \u2026 of Australian sovereignty\u2019.<\/p>\n

Australia\u2019s ability to operate nuclear submarines is likely to be dependent on US agreement, which in turn will lead to deeper integration into the US military. ABC journalist Laura Tingle<\/a> has come to a similar conclusion, writing that the government has effectively contracted out its national security and defence policy. It\u2019s hard to disagree. In the US, as discussed in Foreign Affairs<\/em><\/a>, academic Caitlin Talmadge suggests that the US got the better end of the deal. She\u2019s right; it is not often a state surrenders its sovereignty for the sake of a future promise.<\/p>\n

In accepting AUKUS, Australia has again looked to the past without showing any interest in thinking hard on other options. The loss in automatically defaulting to one\u2019s comfort zone is that it closes off other options before they\u2019re even considered. Analysis before decision-making could have avoided this and provided more assurance that the government is working towards an achievable and beneficial strategic end. In my paper Planning to not lose<\/em><\/a>, published by the Australian Army, I outlined a strategic policy to safeguard Australia based on a defensive posture that exploits new technologies and develops closer ties with our neighbours without any sacrifice of our sovereignty.<\/p>\n

Perhaps it\u2019s time for Australia to broaden its security horizons through divergent thinking rather than cruising to the default mode.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Now that the initial euphoria over the announcement of the AUKUS agreement and Australia\u2019s decision to acquire nuclear submarines has passed, it\u2019s time to unpack some of the deeper meaning. 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