{"id":67800,"date":"2021-10-11T14:30:24","date_gmt":"2021-10-11T03:30:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=67800"},"modified":"2021-10-11T13:06:50","modified_gmt":"2021-10-11T02:06:50","slug":"aukus-adds-ambiguity-to-the-australia-new-zealand-alliance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/aukus-adds-ambiguity-to-the-australia-new-zealand-alliance\/","title":{"rendered":"AUKUS adds ambiguity to the Australia\u2013New Zealand alliance"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The Australian government often describes Australia and New Zealand as \u2018natural allies\u2019. But Prime Minister Scott Morrison\u2019s announcement<\/a> of the AUKUS security partnership with the United States and the United Kingdom on 16 September\u2014which he described as \u2018a forever partnership for a new time between the oldest and most trusted of friends\u2019\u2014raises questions about the changing dynamics of Australia\u2019s natural alliance.<\/p>\n

Morrison called AUKUS \u2018the single greatest initiative \u2026 since the ANZUS alliance itself\u2019 for achieving the \u2018stability and security of our region\u2019. It is perhaps no coincidence that the announcement was made only weeks after the 70th anniversary of the 1951 ANZUS Treaty. On that occasion, Morrison said ANZUS was \u2018the foundation stone<\/a> of Australia\u2019s national security and a key pillar for peace and stability in our Indo-Pacific region\u2019.<\/p>\n

But AUKUS doesn\u2019t include New Zealand, which remains a treaty ally of Australia under ANZUS (the US having rescinded its security guarantee to New Zealand in 1986 after a dispute about nuclear vessels visiting New Zealand).<\/p>\n

The new trilateral agreement will deepen defence and security integration between Australia, the US and the UK, strategically aligning Australia even more closely with the US. This will have consequences for Australia\u2019s relationship with its only other formal treaty ally, New Zealand.<\/p>\n

Much attention has focused on the fact that nuclear-powered vessels are banned from New Zealand waters. And Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has confirmed that any nuclear-powered submarines Australia acquires under AUKUS will not be allowed<\/a> into New Zealand\u2019s territorial waters. When discussing the partnership, the head of Australia\u2019s Defence Department, Greg Moriarty, said that Canberra is \u2018conscious of and respectful towards New Zealand\u2019s approach to nuclear-armed vessels\u2019. Even so, for Australia\u2019s natural ally not to permit the submarines, which (if or when they eventuate) will form a major part of Australia\u2019s defence capability, into its territorial waters may create later tensions.<\/p>\n

Ardern has clarified that, while New Zealand wasn\u2019t invited to join the partnership, she wouldn\u2019t have expected to be asked. Notably, she was the first world leader Morrison informed before the announcement, although not before the decision. The lack of communication has generated frustration in New Zealand, with opposition leader Judith Collins expressing her disappointment that New Zealand wasn\u2019t involved in the discussions.<\/p>\n

Ardern has taken a more neutral approach, making clear that New Zealand \u2018welcomes the increased engagement of the UK and US in the region\u2019 and reiterating that \u2018our collective objective needs to be the delivery of peace and stability and the preservation of the international rules based system\u2019. She also insisted that AUKUS \u2018in no way changes our security and intelligence ties\u2019 with Australia, the US and the UK.<\/p>\n

But AUKUS does underscore two emerging dynamics in the trans-Tasman alliance. The first is that, after several decades trying to articulate its role in Asia and the Pacific, Australia has made explicit its identification with the \u2018Anglosphere<\/a>\u2019. In contrast, while an \u2018original\u2019 Anglosphere member, New Zealand now presents itself as \u2018first and foremost a nation of the Pacific\u2019 that \u2018views foreign policy developments through the lens of what is in the best interest of the region\u2019<\/u>.<\/p>\n

This divergence reflects a growing degree<\/a> of ambiguity between the two allies about whether they\u2019re part of the Pacific islands region. Although Canberra likely hopes that Wellington will help smooth over concerns<\/a> about AUKUS with Pacific island nations, it\u2019s unclear how long New Zealand will be willing to act as Australia\u2019s \u2018good cop\u2019 in the region.<\/p>\n

The second issue is that the defence alliance between Australia and New Zealand, considered the closest in our region<\/a>, is already changing in practical ways. New Zealand already struggles to maintain interoperability with Australia\u2019s defence capabilities. AUKUS, which seeks to deepen interoperability across many areas of defence and security technology, including artificial intelligence, cyber, quantum, underwater systems and long-range strike capabilities, may widen the gap with New Zealand even further.<\/p>\n

Wellington may also find that Canberra\u2019s expectations of what burdens its junior alliance partner will share<\/a>, in a material as well as a soft-power sense, may actually increase if New Zealand is to demonstrate its contribution to the alliance. As concerns about China\u2019s rise and influence in the Indo-Pacific rise and Washington prioritises renewing and strengthening<\/a> its alliances, the demands that AUKUS places on Australia could also shrink the bureaucratic bandwidth that Canberra can grant to Wellington.<\/p>\n

These dynamics raise questions about the future of the Australia\u2013New Zealand alliance, including the sustainability of New Zealand\u2019s perceived free-riding on Australian defence spending and the two states\u2019 roles in their immediate region, the Pacific islands. The allies have overcome major shocks before\u2014such as the collapse of ANZUS between the US and New Zealand\u2014but as strategic competition gains pace in the Indo-Pacific the presumed naturalness of their alliance is likely to be tested.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Australian government often describes Australia and New Zealand as \u2018natural allies\u2019. But Prime Minister Scott Morrison\u2019s announcement of the AUKUS security partnership with the United States and the United Kingdom on 16 September\u2014which he …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1437,"featured_media":67802,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[131,3111,17,73],"class_list":["post-67800","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-anzus","tag-aukus","tag-australia","tag-new-zealand"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAUKUS adds ambiguity to the Australia\u2013New Zealand alliance | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/aukus-adds-ambiguity-to-the-australia-new-zealand-alliance\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"AUKUS adds ambiguity to the Australia\u2013New Zealand alliance | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Australian government often describes Australia and New Zealand as \u2018natural allies\u2019. 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