{"id":68523,"date":"2021-11-12T06:00:49","date_gmt":"2021-11-11T19:00:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=68523"},"modified":"2021-11-11T17:44:04","modified_gmt":"2021-11-11T06:44:04","slug":"the-antarctic-treaty-system-is-on-thin-ice-and-its-not-all-about-climate-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-antarctic-treaty-system-is-on-thin-ice-and-its-not-all-about-climate-change\/","title":{"rendered":"The Antarctic Treaty System is on thin ice\u2014and it’s not all about climate change"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The Antarctic Treaty System, which has governed affairs in Antarctica since 1961, is struggling under the weight of great-power competition. Through gaps in governance frameworks, states are exploiting the treaty and its subordinate protocols to pursue their national interests. This article examines the nature and extent of great-power competition in Antarctica and considers how Australia, as a claimant to 42% of the continental landmass, can seek to protect Antarctica and its own interests.<\/p>\n

Antarctica offers great treasure in natural resources, scientific opportunity and national prestige. Antarctica\u2019s \u2018prizes\u2019 include fishing stocks, bioprospecting opportunities, climate science analysis and hydrocarbons (with potential reserves of between 300 and 500 billion tonnes of natural gas on the continent and potentially 135 billion tonnes <\/a>of oil in the Southern Ocean).<\/p>\n

Article 1 of the Antarctic Treaty declares that use of Antarctica is for scientific observation and investigation\u2014for peaceful purposes only. Despite the treaty suspending the claims of the seven original claimants (Argentina, Australia, Chile, France, New Zealand, Norway and the UK), the US and Soviet Union (as additional, non-claimant, original signatories) exercised the right under the treaty to stake a claim at a later stage<\/a>. In effect, the treaty froze the issue of territorial sovereignty.<\/p>\n

Now, however, the great powers are refocusing their attention on achieving their strategic objectives by alternate means as the treaty\u2019s protocols come up for renewal in 2048. What could change between now and then<\/a>? As stakeholders with voting rights on continental governance, the consultative parties to the treaty<\/a> might decide to keep its environmental protocol<\/a> and continue to prohibit mining and militarisation. But they might not.<\/p>\n

Australia\u2019s 2017 foreign policy white paper emphasises Indo-Pacific competition, a focus accentuated with the announcement of the AUKUS<\/a> pact in September. But the white paper omitted any mention of challenges in Antarctica. Yet, China\u2019s disregard of the 2016 arbitral tribunal ruling<\/a> on its South China Sea claims, coupled with its intense competition for resource access and assertive actions in international governance forums<\/a>, suggests that a watch-and-wait approach in Antarctica is a high-risk one. Existing legal frameworks don\u2019t deter major states from acting to secure their own strategic interests and Australia can\u2019t afford to be naive about its geopolitical context.<\/p>\n

Since the establishment of its first Antarctic research station, the Great Wall, in 1985, China has expanded its presence on the continent. Three of the country\u2019s four research stations are based within the Australian Antarctic Territory, and a fifth is under construction on Inexpressible Island in the Ross Sea. China\u2019s emergence as a polar power includes substantial investment in icebreakers and continental airstrips<\/a> to provide year-round access.<\/p>\n

The Chinese government\u2019s strategic approach to Antarctica is at the level of national security policy<\/a>. Official documentation incorporates Antarctica and the Southern Ocean into the state\u2019s expanded conception <\/a>of domains for influence and dominance, beyond the Indo-Pacific<\/a>. Beijing recognises no existing claims to the continent and pursues a strategy that maximises its own national interests there.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s polar affairs are governed through the State Oceanic Administration, which sits directly under the Ministry of Natural Resources. The Polar Research Institute of China nominally administers scientific activity on behalf of the State Oceanic Administration, yet its reach covers \u2018polar politics, economy, science and security\u2019<\/a>. Since 2011, Antarctic priorities have been set at the national level through the Chinese Communist Party\u2019s five-year plans<\/a>, which explicitly characterise the polar regions as a \u2018new strategic frontier\u2019.<\/p>\n

The CCP seeks to affirm China\u2019s international legitimacy on the continent on the one hand and maximise domestic support for Chinese Antarctic activities on the other. China thus has \u2018two voices\u2019<\/a> targeting separate audiences. Externally, China portrays itself as conforming to the treaty system\u2019s institutions with a primary interest in science. Beijing has accused Antarctic forums of being a \u2018rich man\u2019s club\u2019<\/a> dominated by the US, claiming that others are portrayed as \u2018second-class citizens\u2019. This ignores the fact that China has equal voting rights as a consultative party. The CCP narrative is that China has been denied its rightful place in the international order.<\/p>\n

Domestically, President Xi Jinping\u2019s November 2014 speech<\/a>, given aboard the\u00a0Xuelong <\/em>icebreaker then docked in Hobart, declared that China wanted \u2018to become a polar great power\u2019. China then asserted its \u2018right\u2019 to polar leadership in 2015 through its national security law<\/a>, emphasising the state\u2019s interests in \u2018new frontiers\u2019, including Antarctica and the Arctic<\/a>, among others<\/a>. By listing these domains in a security context, China laid a domestic legal foundation to protect its potential future rights in them.<\/p>\n

Following Xi\u2019s \u2018polar great power\u2019 comment, senior Chinese military leaders<\/a> have used Antarctica\u2019s \u2018global commons\u2019<\/a> status to assert China\u2019s entitlement to Antarctic interests. This domestic narrative stresses the successful advocacy of China\u2019s polar scientists for educational programs and Chinese people\u2019s rights<\/a> to opportunities in polar regions.<\/p>\n

\u2018Science\u2019 is deployed as a narrative tool to legitimise China\u2019s expanding presence on the continent. A vital part of this claim is, of course, stressing the importance of climate change research<\/a> and the need for cooperation from all powers on this front. The polar regions are fundamental<\/a> to this effort. At the same time, however, Chinese scientific and academic institutions participating in Antarctic science are essentially controlled by the CCP and integrated with<\/a> China\u2019s civil\u2013military complex.<\/p>\n

Xi has explicitly stated that China\u2019s scientists should have the \u2018correct political inclination\u2019<\/a> and be \u2018imbued with patriotic feelings\u2019. Chinese influence in Antarctic forums reinforces the broader Chinese narrative of its natural right to leadership<\/a> in international governance. On top of this, the People\u2019s Liberation Army has for some time highlighted the likelihood of polar regions being spaces for \u2018new geopolitical conflict\u2019<\/a>.<\/p>\n

New Zealand China expert Anne-Marie Brady\u2019s research<\/a> highlights China\u2019s Antarctic \u2018bathymetry activities\u2019 mapping the Southern Ocean seabed for future shipping and\/or submarine movement. China has linked the polar regions to the Belt and Road Initiative in building a \u2018blue economic passage\u2019 to secure national interests<\/a> and to \u2018build China into a maritime powerhouse\u2019. Antarctica and the Southern Ocean represent a natural extension of Beijing\u2019s maritime economics objectives and its drive to access resources and secure associated trade routes and to set the conditions for \u2018dual-use\u2019 capabilities to effectively control the region.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s failure to comply <\/a>with Antarctic inspection requirements serves to further weaken the treaty\u2019s original intent. Poor compliance potentially encourages further militarisation below the detection threshold. The implications for Australia would be stark if competition with the US and\/or Australia were to escalate, and China ramped up its military presence in Antarctica<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Competition on the continent has always involved other players. The US was pivotal in the initial development of the Antarctic Treaty. In brokering the treaty, the US was able to deny sovereignty to other states. US policy reinforces the commitment to use Antarctica only for peaceful purposes and free access for science; however, the US \u2018recognizes no foreign territorial claims\u2019<\/a> and \u2018reserves the right to participate in any future uses of the region\u2019.<\/p>\n

With priorities in other theatres, the US approach to Antarctica has suffered a period of neglect. Funding constraints on US Antarctic science contributions have created space for other countries to assert more dominant roles. The US is now taking an enhanced physical presence, with a 2020 presidential memorandum focusing on new \u2018polar security\u2019 icebreakers<\/a>. The Biden administration has not reversed this direction and how the US contributes<\/a> to environmental protection in Antarctica in future will be vital.<\/p>\n

Despite the historical relationship and close alliance between Washington and Canberra, the US has consistently refuted Australia\u2019s territorial claim in Antarctica and reserved its right to make a future claim. More recently, though, the US has demonstrated actions that may preference collective over unilateral interests, supporting the treaty and pledging reaffirmed commitments<\/a> to prohibitions on mineral resource exploitation. As both competition and cooperation (on climate change, for example<\/a>) with China continue, the US may see merit in ensuring Antarctica\u2019s hydrocarbons and minerals remain off limits for exploitation.<\/p>\n

Australia has an opportunity to partner with the US and other countries in a collaborative approach to Antarctic governance. To avoid the territorial and resource competition that would accompany dissolution of, or great power withdrawal from, the treaty, its enhancement is the best means of preserving its peaceful and scientific-research intent. Australia is well positioned to pursue cooperative ventures reinforcing its historic Antarctic position. At the same time, Australia should work closely<\/a> with treaty members to establish firm mechanisms and compliance measures within the treaty system to address gaps that leave Antarctica open to exploitation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Antarctic Treaty System, which has governed affairs in Antarctica since 1961, is struggling under the weight of great-power competition. Through gaps in governance frameworks, states are exploiting the treaty and its subordinate protocols to …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1250,"featured_media":68528,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[990,199,1383,52],"class_list":["post-68523","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-antarctic-treaty","tag-antarctica","tag-ccp","tag-china"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Antarctic Treaty System is on thin ice\u2014and it's not all about climate change | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-antarctic-treaty-system-is-on-thin-ice-and-its-not-all-about-climate-change\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Antarctic Treaty System is on thin ice\u2014and it's not all about climate change | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Antarctic Treaty System, which has governed affairs in Antarctica since 1961, is struggling under the weight of great-power competition. 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