{"id":68898,"date":"2021-11-26T13:30:51","date_gmt":"2021-11-26T02:30:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=68898"},"modified":"2021-11-26T13:41:02","modified_gmt":"2021-11-26T02:41:02","slug":"the-threat-spectrum-28","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-threat-spectrum-28\/","title":{"rendered":"The threat spectrum"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Planet A<\/strong><\/p>\n

Heavy rain and floods in British Columbia have stranded more than 18,000 residents and sparked a widespread disaster response<\/a>, including from the Canadian air force and army. The region experienced more than a month\u2019s rainfall in a single weekend from an intense channel of moisture known as an atmospheric river<\/a>. After a brief hiatus, British Columbians are now bracing<\/a> for another storm that could bring up to 80 millimetres of rain.<\/p>\n

Extreme weather events are fast becoming the norm<\/a> for the western Canadian province. A record-breaking heat wave in June and July killed hundreds<\/a> and triggered bushfires<\/a>. In turn, the fire-damaged ground worsened the impact of landslides and flooding during this month\u2019s rains. \u2018Once in a century\u2019 weather events are becoming more frequent<\/a> as climate change accelerates, and the British Columbian floods demonstrate how past disasters exacerbate future ones through compounding effects.<\/p>\n

Canada\u2019s military response raises questions about whether dependence on armed forces for disaster relief is logistically and economically viable as climate catastrophes become more frequent. A Pentagon official raised similar concerns recently, saying the US Army is unprepared for climate change. An alternative being discussed in Canada is training civilian response teams<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Democracy watch<\/strong><\/p>\n

Both Argentina and Chile went to the polls in the past fortnight, with the two countries returning \u00a0similar results: significant swings to the right.<\/p>\n

Argentina\u2019s incumbent Peronist government lost its senate majority for the first time in nearly 40 years<\/a> to the conservative Menemist opposition, but it was the rise of far-right leader Javier Milei\u2014who refuses vaccination, \u2018denies climate change is real, describes himself as a \u201clion\u201d<\/a>\u2019 and named his dogs after economists of the Chicago school\u2014that grabbed headlines.<\/p>\n

Chile\u2019s swing to the right was more profound, with right-wing and term-limited incumbent Sebasti\u00e1n Pi\u00f1era giving way to \u2018ultra<\/a>\u2019 far-right Jos\u00e9 Antonio Kast, who wants to dig an \u2018enormous ditch<\/a>\u2019 to keep migrants out and whose supporters often chant \u2018viva Pinochet<\/a>\u2019 at rallies, referring to Chile\u2019s former fascist dictator.<\/p>\n

Kast\u2019s victory in the first round of the presidential election has been attributed to his rhetoric of offering a \u2018firm hand<\/a>\u2019 in the face of recent unrest<\/a> and his campaign\u2019s disinformation strategy, described by critics as straight out of the \u2018manual<\/a>\u2019 of Brazil\u2019s Jair Bolsonaro and former US president Donald Trump.<\/p>\n

Information operations<\/strong><\/p>\n

Last week, the US Justice Department indicted<\/a> two Iranian hackers for alleged involvement in a disinformation campaign<\/a> targeting American voters before the 2020 presidential election. Seyyed Kazemi and Sajjad Kashian are accused of attempting to obtain voter information from several states, hacking a US media company\u2019s networks and sending threatening emails to thousands of voters. While the indictment didn\u2019t explicitly link the hackers to the Iranian government, US Treasury sanctions<\/a> and a statement by Secretary of State Antony Blinken<\/a> both described the men as \u2018state-sponsored actors\u2019.<\/p>\n

US officials quickly identified<\/a> the disinformation campaign last year, but it is not an isolated incident. In a joint alert<\/a>, US, UK and Australian cybersecurity agencies recently noted that Iranian government-sponsored groups were exploiting Microsoft vulnerabilities<\/a> to carry out ransomware attacks targeting US critical infrastructure and Australian companies. While these attacks were relatively unsophisticated<\/a>, Iran\u2019s increasingly aggressive cyber operations<\/a> have some analysts concerned<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Follow the money<\/strong><\/p>\n

Australia will reopen its borders to overseas students and skilled migrants, which will help revive the tertiary education sector and address significant worker shortages in almost every industry<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Higher education remains Australia\u2019s fourth largest export<\/a> despite its $1.9 billion pandemic-related revenue loss. But long-term pandemic-related disruptions<\/a> for overseas students will continue to impede the industry\u2019s recovery<\/a>. Australia\u2019s limited post-study work options are also pushing international students to seek opportunities elsewhere<\/a>, and reopening borders might not guarantee the sector\u2019s ongoing financial viability.<\/p>\n

The health and hospitality sectors have been particularly affected by shortages due to Covid-19, and the government has announced it will allow 20,000 skilled-worker visa holders who stayed in Australia over the pandemic to apply for permanent residency. While the measure is expected to provide some short-term relief, more will likely be needed<\/a> if Australia is to return to the levels of migration that existed\u2014and supported the economy\u2014before the pandemic struck.<\/p>\n

Terror byte<\/strong><\/p>\n

A suicide bombing at a hospital in the British city of Liverpool, carried out by Iraqi asylum seeker Emad al-Swealmeen on Remembrance Sunday, has renewed<\/a> the debate about the relationship between terrorism and mental illness. Al-Swealmeen arrived in a taxi and detonated a homemade bomb, which triggered a fire that killed him and injured others.<\/p>\n

UK police declared the incident a terrorist attack but are still investigating \u200b\u200bal-Swealmeen\u2019s motives, since the categorisation appears to have been based more on his methodology<\/a> than on a clear ideology. Al-Swealmeen\u2019s refugee request was rejected by the Home Office and he reportedly had a history of mental health problems, leading the UK\u2019s terrorism watchdog to call for terrorism to be treated like other crimes exacerbated by mental illness.<\/p>\n

In another incident involving a refugee last year in Reading, Khairi Saadallah\u2019s killing of three men was attributed<\/a> to his mental state. However, the debate is murky, with some arguing<\/a> that those living with mental illnesses are far more likely to be victims of violent attacks than to carry them out.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Planet A Heavy rain and floods in British Columbia have stranded more than 18,000 residents and sparked a widespread disaster response, including from the Canadian air force and army. 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