{"id":69006,"date":"2021-12-01T06:00:08","date_gmt":"2021-11-30T19:00:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=69006"},"modified":"2021-11-30T17:10:21","modified_gmt":"2021-11-30T06:10:21","slug":"appeasement-is-not-the-solution-to-the-china-problem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/appeasement-is-not-the-solution-to-the-china-problem\/","title":{"rendered":"Appeasement is not the solution to the China problem"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Hugh White seems seized by anxiety in his latest and arguably most pessimistic assessment<\/a> of US\u2013China tensions over Taiwan and the strategic choices facing Australia.<\/p>\n

White argues that the risk of war between the US and China is \u2018quite high\u2019 and that recent remarks by Defence Minister Peter Dutton suggest that Australia will follow America to war against China if China attacks Taiwan.<\/p>\n

The most likely outcome of a US\u2013China war, he says, would be \u2018a costly and inconclusive stalemate\u2019, with the chances of the war going nuclear \u2018quite high\u2019 and the chances of US victory \u2018very low\u2019.<\/p>\n

A war, White argues, would likely destroy the liberal rules-based order. The cost in blood and treasure would be \u2018almost unthinkably large \u2026 probably far higher than living under a new Chinese-led regional order\u2019. These few words are the core of his argument.<\/p>\n

White acknowledges that it\u2019s credible to argue that Taiwan\u2019s democracy shouldn\u2019t be subjugated to Beijing\u2019s increasingly authoritarian rule. But he nevertheless argues that there\u2019s \u2018a mortal [presumably moral] imperative to avoid war, and perhaps especially to avoid nuclear war\u2019, which has to be balanced against the imperative to support democracy against authoritarianism.<\/p>\n

He concludes that Australia needs to start debating the competing claims of these \u2018seemingly incompatible imperatives\u2019. His analysis and argument are, as always, elegantly expressed, but they ignore some fundamental questions and leave others unclear or ambiguous.<\/p>\n

First, contrary to White\u2019s assertion, balancing the imperatives of avoiding war and supporting democracy have long been a key focus of Australian debates on the US alliance, China policy and Taiwan. The issue is fraught and intensified when politicians make provocative remarks crafted for domestic electoral advantage.<\/p>\n

Second, and more importantly, White\u2019s own position is profoundly ambiguous. He sees the prospect of nuclear war as high, the prospect of US victory as low and the cost of war as probably higher than living under a new Chinese-led order. Given these conclusions, any balancing debate on avoiding war versus supporting democracy would seem irrelevant. White seems at least close to convinced that the game is up, that China has won, and that we must all surrender and settle down to live under a Chinese-led order after conceding or sacrificing Taiwan and ousting US maritime power from the region.<\/p>\n

Two questions arise. Would such an outcome restore tranquillity, amity and peace to the region? And would life under a Chinese-led regional order be acceptable or even bearable to Australia and its democratic neighbours?<\/p>\n

Far from being satisfied, China would be more likely to seek new territories to reclaim and to rule. That has always been the way of expansionist bully-boy powers when pusillanimous competitors appease them; think Czechoslovakia and Poland in the late 1930s. China is pursuing regional hegemony by moving to drive US power from the region. Stability and peace are not high on its international agenda. Its business is disruption and pressure.<\/p>\n

Recent events in China leave little doubt about the quality of life under Beijing\u2019s authoritarian rule. Hong Kong\u2019s democracy has been trampled and violated, the ethnic cleansing of the Xinjiang Uyghurs is far advanced, dissident citizens are disappearing with an efficiency unmatched since the days of Stalin\u2019s USSR. Democratic Taiwan would doubtless be similarly treated if \u2018reunited\u2019 with the mainland. So much for amity and peace under a Chinese order led by Xi Jinping.<\/p>\n

Australia and its democratic neighbours would suffer too. If Canberra buckled to China\u2019s published list of \u201814 grievances\u2019, Australia\u2019s independence, sovereignty and liberal democratic political culture would be destroyed and it would become a vassal client state.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a pity that White, founding executive director of ASPI, barely canvassed these issues beyond observing in passing that it was \u2018credible\u2019 to argue that Taiwan\u2019s democracy shouldn\u2019t be subjugated. There are moral imperatives here, and issues of national interest, culture and alliance relations. White clearly recognises them but apparently sets them aside in hopes of avoiding a war.<\/p>\n

Yet avoiding war often requires alliances of like-minded powers to balance, and to deter, potential aggressors by raising the cost of conflict higher than an aggressor is willing to pay. Australia\u2019s alliance with the United States has served Canberra well despite its high and sometimes tragic costs. It has also given Australia access to superior US military technologies. If China succeeded in displacing the US in the region, the US alliance with Australia would inevitably collapse.<\/p>\n

That would be a potentially fatal blow to Australia\u2019s vital security interests and leave the nation much more vulnerable to aggressors while facing higher defence spending on possibly inferior equipment. Strong alliances\u2014like the new and evolving AUKUS grouping\u2014seem far more likely to deter war with China than appeasement policies based on misplaced optimism about Chinese benevolence once its demands are met.<\/p>\n

Of course, as White notes, China is an increasingly formidable and nuclear-armed US competitor with impressive and growing military power. It is catching up fast. But White\u2019s grim assessment of the course of any conflict ignores the ongoing military superiority of the US in both conventional and nuclear arms\u2014a reality well understood by China. This point was emphasised in the powerful response<\/a> to White by ASPI\u2019s current executive director Peter Jennings and it needs no further elaboration here.<\/p>\n

One hundred and twenty years ago, US president Theodore Roosevelt based his foreign policy on an African aphorism: \u2018Speak softly and carry a big stick.\u2019 Add \u2018and maintain balancing alliances\u2019 and you have the foundations for a policy to manage the Chinese challenge. It is a pity that White seems to prefer a policy of \u2018Stay quiet and carry a feather duster.\u2019<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hugh White seems seized by anxiety in his latest and arguably most pessimistic assessment of US\u2013China tensions over Taiwan and the strategic choices facing Australia. White argues that the risk of war between the US …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":185,"featured_media":69008,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,285,31,2397],"class_list":["post-69006","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-foreign-policy","tag-united-states","tag-us-alliances"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAppeasement is not the solution to the China problem | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/appeasement-is-not-the-solution-to-the-china-problem\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Appeasement is not the solution to the China problem | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Hugh White seems seized by anxiety in his latest and arguably most pessimistic assessment of US\u2013China tensions over Taiwan and the strategic choices facing Australia. 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