{"id":69099,"date":"2021-12-03T15:00:36","date_gmt":"2021-12-03T04:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=69099"},"modified":"2021-12-03T14:17:46","modified_gmt":"2021-12-03T03:17:46","slug":"has-jokowi-fallen-for-putins-line-on-russias-benign-utility-to-indonesia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/has-jokowi-fallen-for-putins-line-on-russias-benign-utility-to-indonesia\/","title":{"rendered":"Has Jokowi fallen for Putin\u2019s line on Russia\u2019s benign utility to Indonesia?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

If the Australian government is serious about tackling trolls, it may need to start giving some thought to the latest effort of Russian President Vladimir Putin and what it says implicitly about Australia\u2019s standing in parts of Southeast Asia.<\/p>\n

Labelling Putin\u2019s decision to send a dedicated anti-submarine destroyer, the Admiral Panteleyev<\/em>, to participate in the first-ever ASEAN\u2013Russia joint maritime exercise<\/a> as trolling might be jumping to conclusions. The vessel might well have been the best option available from among Russia\u2019s Pacific Fleet for the three-day drills held in Indonesian waters off Sabang, Aceh, this week. The exercise, which Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto was reportedly to launch<\/a> from the Admiral Panteleyev<\/em>\u2019s deck, is presumably the latest iteration of a series that has seen vessels from the likes of China and the United States stage similar drills with ASEAN-badged flotillas in recent years.<\/p>\n

That said, it\u2019s tempting to interpret the selection of an anti-submarine destroyer for an exercise ostensibly to \u2018ensure the safety of maritime economic activity and civil navigation\u2019, as Russia\u2019s embassy to ASEAN put it<\/a>, as a Putinesque taunt given the context in which it was made. This was the 28 October ASEAN\u2013Russia summit, the official communiqu\u00e9<\/a> of which \u2018encouraged the conduct of joint ADMM-Plus [ASEAN Defence Ministers\u2019 Meeting Plus] exercises amongst our militaries to build trust and confidence and to enhance our capability in addressing common security challenges\u2019.<\/p>\n

More to the point, the summit came on the back of the announcement in September of Australia\u2019s plans to acquire nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs) under the new AUKUS pact, a development that some in ASEAN have welcomed but about which others, most notably Indonesia, have expressed serious concerns. Central to Jakarta\u2019s concerns are a perceived threat to the integrity of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the risk of Australia\u2019s planned acquisition causing a regional arms race.<\/p>\n

Indonesia\u2019s president, Joko Widodo, reprised the argument that sharpening strategic rivalries were leading to an \u2018arms race\u00a0and\u00a0power projection\u2019 in his address to the summit<\/a>. Were this trend to continue, Jokowi reportedly warned, the prospects for a \u2018proxy\u00a0occurrence\u2019 would be \u2018very large\u2019. \u2018We have to prevent it and avoid it,\u2019 he said, since \u2018none of us want to see this situation continue.\u2019<\/p>\n

Russia, Jokowi argued, promised to be important in mitigating this risk.<\/p>\n

\u2018I believe that the ASEAN\u2013Russia strategic partnership can prevent this trend,\u2019 he said, and \u2018must continue to be a \u201cpositive force\u201d and a buffer of stability and peace in the region. The parties\u2019 cooperation would strengthen\u00a0strategic trust and eliminate the\u00a0trust deficit.<\/em>\u00a0This will be Russia’s major contribution in maintaining stability, peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region.\u2019<\/p>\n

For his part, Putin saw a commonality in Russia\u2019s and ASEAN\u2019s positions on \u2018major world and regional issues\u2019. \u2018What is important,\u2019 he reportedly stressed to his ASEAN counterparts<\/a>, \u2018is that we all support equal and mutually beneficial cooperation in the vast Asia\u2013Pacific region.\u2019<\/p>\n

For the time being, Russia remains the largest supplier of arms to Southeast Asia<\/a>, so in this respect its cooperation has brought certain benefits. In the case of Indonesia specifically, the ties extend way back to the days of Sukarno\u2019s dealings with the Soviet Union, provoking more than a little angst in Washington and Canberra at the time. And Russia has been among the prospective suppliers of advanced weaponry such as fighter jets that Prabowo has been exploring since his elevation to the defence portfolio.<\/p>\n

Russia also offers ASEAN states the comfort of having another major external actor in the region pledging support for ASEAN\u2019s \u2018centrality\u2019 and symbolically treating the South China Sea as part of the global commons rather than a prospective Chinese lake.<\/p>\n

But that Jokowi (and others) should see Putin\u2019s Russia in such \u2018positive\u2019 terms as a regional actor performing the role of a \u2018buffer of stability and peace\u2019 seems exceptionally generous, if not disconcertingly curious. Likewise, given Moscow\u2019s actual behaviour elsewhere in the world, observers could be forgiven for wincing at the summit communiqu\u00e9\u2019s reference to both sides\u2019 reiteration of the importance of the ASEAN outlook on the Indo-Pacific<\/em><\/a> and its principles of \u2018a rules-based framework\u2019, \u2018respect for sovereignty\u2019 and \u2018respect for international law\u2019.<\/p>\n

One explanation for Jokowi\u2019s generosity of spirit presumably lies in his apparent hope that Russia will contribute tangibly to the region\u2019s (and specifically Indonesia\u2019s) development. How an economically stretched Russia might do this, however, is much harder to see than is the case for China, the US, Japan and others in the region, aside from its delivering on promises to expand collaboration on producing its Sputnik Covid-19 vaccine in some Southeast Asian states.<\/p>\n

Jokowi\u2019s implicit characterisation of Russia as a neutral player in the great-power rivalries that so worry him also looks naive at best in light of the Admiral Panteleyev<\/em>\u2019s task immediately preceding its activities off Sumatra. This entailed a joint maritime patrol exercise with China<\/a>, in which a combined Sino-Russian fleet made a point of circumnavigating Japan. Although the Chinese Ministry of Defence was at pains to claim that the exercise was \u2018not targeted at any third parties\u2019, China\u2019s Global Times<\/em> was far less coy about reporting a \u2018Chinese military expert\u2019 describing what took place as \u2018a warning to Japan as well as the US<\/a>\u2019.<\/p>\n

Naivety is not a word that springs to mind when pondering Putin. His form would instead suggest that, as he reflected on Jokowi\u2019s thinly veiled allusions to AUKUS submarines, he found the idea of sending to Aceh a warship dedicated to sinking them too delicious to pass up.<\/p>\n

Anti-submarine warfare training is, of course, most unlikely to have anything to do with the joint exercise. And no one should draw too many conclusions about Russia\u2019s role in the region\u2019s strategic future based on such an activity and the diplomatic mechanism from which it seemingly emerged. Russia\u2019s historical links to regional states and its lingering hard power will give it some sway, but its real economic weaknesses will necessarily constrain its influence in the region: it simply can\u2019t offer the region\u2019s elites what others can.<\/p>\n

Nor should anyone interpret Jokowi\u2019s utterances about Russia\u2019s being a force for good in Southeast Asia as anything other than the sort of nonsense leaders are primed to say at such events.<\/p>\n

But that nonsense and the symbolism of the Admiral Panteleyev<\/em>\u2019s presence in Indonesian territorial waters do point to a problem that Canberra would do well to heed, and that Russia can stoke if given half a chance.<\/p>\n

As he stood on the Russian ship\u2019s bridge, Prabowo might not have been too bothered by the prospect of an Australian SSN<\/a> lurking in waters not far from Sabang decades from now, but his president and others in Indonesia\u2019s foreign policy establishment plainly are. Addressing Indonesia\u2019s non-proliferation concerns, however valid or invalid they may be, needs to be a major part of Canberra\u2019s dealings with Indonesia now and into the future; and that does not mean that Australia should simply abandon its considered defence interests just to unfurrow Indonesian brows.<\/p>\n

Australia should also take into account the way it projects itself in the context of the great-power rivalries that are spooking Jokowi and others.<\/p>\n

The root of this problem lies primarily in Australia\u2019s political soil, and the longer this problem persists the harder it will be for diplomacy to manage it.<\/p>\n

But the more that ASEAN states like Indonesia are given cause for perceiving Australia\u2019s stated efforts towards deterring conflict as just posturing bellicosity out of step with the sentiments of its northern neighbours, the more those neighbours are likely to turn a blind eye to Russia\u2019s manifest shortcomings as a peace-loving, law -abiding partner able to help them keep the rival elephants from trampling them.<\/p>\n

And the more opportunities Putin will have to play his trolling games.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If the Australian government is serious about tackling trolls, it may need to start giving some thought to the latest effort of Russian President Vladimir Putin and what it says implicitly about Australia\u2019s standing in …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1241,"featured_media":69109,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[189,3111,8,2034,163],"class_list":["post-69099","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-asean","tag-aukus","tag-indonesia","tag-naval-exercise","tag-russia"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHas Jokowi fallen for Putin\u2019s line on Russia\u2019s benign utility to Indonesia? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/has-jokowi-fallen-for-putins-line-on-russias-benign-utility-to-indonesia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Has Jokowi fallen for Putin\u2019s line on Russia\u2019s benign utility to Indonesia? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"If the Australian government is serious about tackling trolls, it may need to start giving some thought to the latest effort of Russian President Vladimir Putin and what it says implicitly about Australia\u2019s standing in ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/has-jokowi-fallen-for-putins-line-on-russias-benign-utility-to-indonesia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-12-03T04:00:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-12-03T03:17:46+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/The_Russian_Navy_Udaloy-class_destroyer_RFS_Admiral_Panteleyev_arrives_at_Joint_Base_Pearl_Harbor-Hickam_to_participate_in_the_Rim_of_the_Pacific_exercise_2012._7487834270.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"425\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"David Engel\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"David Engel\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/has-jokowi-fallen-for-putins-line-on-russias-benign-utility-to-indonesia\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/The_Russian_Navy_Udaloy-class_destroyer_RFS_Admiral_Panteleyev_arrives_at_Joint_Base_Pearl_Harbor-Hickam_to_participate_in_the_Rim_of_the_Pacific_exercise_2012._7487834270.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/The_Russian_Navy_Udaloy-class_destroyer_RFS_Admiral_Panteleyev_arrives_at_Joint_Base_Pearl_Harbor-Hickam_to_participate_in_the_Rim_of_the_Pacific_exercise_2012._7487834270.jpg\",\"width\":640,\"height\":425,\"caption\":\"120629-N-WX059-039 PEARL HARBOR (June 29, 2012) The Russian Navy Udaloy-class destroyer RFS Admiral Panteleyev (BPK 548) arrives at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam to participate in the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercise 2012. 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