{"id":69719,"date":"2022-01-10T12:00:36","date_gmt":"2022-01-10T01:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=69719"},"modified":"2022-01-10T09:39:31","modified_gmt":"2022-01-09T22:39:31","slug":"germany-ramps-up-indo-pacific-engagement","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/germany-ramps-up-indo-pacific-engagement\/","title":{"rendered":"Germany ramps up Indo-Pacific engagement"},"content":{"rendered":"
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After 16 years of Angela Merkel\u2019s leadership, a tight race on election night and almost two months of coalition negotiations in Germany, the Social Democratic Party, or SPD, returned to power with Olaf Scholz the new chancellor. With the Greens and the Free Democratic Party, they\u2019ve formed the Ampelkoalition<\/em> (traffic light coalition)\u2014the federal republic\u2019s first ever three-party governing arrangement.<\/p>\n

The new chancellor is widely expected to largely continue Merkel\u2019s legacy, but the coalition agreement outlining policy plans for the next four years signals changes in German\u2019s approach to the Indo-Pacific.<\/p>\n

Since the September election, two important announcements were made regarding future German activity in the region. In November, the chief of the German Navy, Vice-Admiral Kay-Achim Sch\u00f6nbach, said he would send vessels into the Indo-Pacific every two years with the intention of increasing cooperation with Japan, Australia and the US, and to advocate for peace, free navigation and maintenance of the rules-based international order in the South China Sea. The announcement came during a visit to Tokyo by the German frigate Bayern<\/em> on its seven-month voyage through the region.<\/p>\n

In September, the German Air Force will participate in Pitch Black<\/a>, a multinational exercise hosted by the Royal Australian Air Force and scheduled to take place over northern Australia. Germany plans to send six Eurofighters, three refuelling tankers and three transport aircraft, a significant step up in its Indo-Pacific participation.<\/p>\n

While the navy and air force plans were put in place under Merkel, the new coalition has signalled its wish to increase Germany\u2019s presence in the Indo-Pacific.<\/p>\n

If the Scholz government stays true to that promise, then we\u2019re likely to see Germany engage with more confidence<\/a>, bluntness and interest to intensify cooperation with regional nations.<\/p>\n

The coalition agreement aims to strengthen cooperation on multilateralism, democracy, climate protection, trade and digitalisation, and to expand cooperation between the EU and ASEAN. The agreement<\/a> specifically seeks increased cooperation on multiple levels with Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea as values-based partners.<\/p>\n

The agreement also seeks a stronger strategic partnership with India and says Germany wishes to address the impacts of climate change and to \u2018stand up for those affected by rising sea levels\u2019.<\/p>\n

If the coalition contract is to be taken at face value, German engagement with Beijing may be blunter than that of past administrations.<\/p>\n

The agreement sets out a China policy driven by values and not afraid to criticise Beijing\u2019s internal affairs and geopolitics. The agreement opposes Beijing\u2019s \u2018one-China\u2019 policy and strongly supports democratic Taiwan\u2019s inclusion in international organisations. It takes the position strongly that all changes to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait must happen peacefully and with mutual agreement. The new government wants China to return to the \u2018one country, two systems\u2019 principle for Hong Kong and it has undertaken to address human rights violations in Xinjiang against the Uyghur and Kazakh minorities.<\/p>\n

This approach to China contrasts with the coalition contract at the start of Merkel\u2019s final term in 2018. That deal chose to not address China\u2019s human rights abuses in detail and only briefly mentioned its growing geopolitical importance. The 2018 contract favoured trade and investment for Germany\u2019s economic benefit. Merkel\u2019s stance on China was at times considered too lenient and she appeared reluctant to make concrete statements condemning Beijing.<\/p>\n

The 2021 agreement repeatedly uses the term \u2018Indo-Pacific\u2019, which was not mentioned in the 2018 agreement, as Germany adopts new terminology championed by India, Australia and the US.<\/p>\n

Indications are that the Scholz government will not be shy about stepping on Beijing\u2019s toes. While some media outlets<\/a> have suggested that the agreement signals a \u2018break with China\u2019, Chinese government mouthpiece Global Times<\/em><\/a> has downplayed the potential impact on relations. It says the \u2018landscape of China\u2013Germany cooperation will not change\u2019 as \u2018Scholz\u2019s party has always advocated for dialogue with China\u2019. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian has already warned Germany that issues such as Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Taiwan are \u2018all China\u2019s internal affairs\u2019<\/a>.<\/u><\/p>\n

While Scholz has not been an outspoken critic of Beijing, Germany\u2019s new foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, has made strong statements critical of China. Baerbock, who was the Greens\u2019 candidate for chancellor, has described China’s Belt and Road Initiative as \u2018hardcore power politics\u2019<\/a> and has urged a ban on products from Xinjiang, saying Europe must make sure that \u2018products from forced labour do not come onto our market\u2019. Since becoming foreign minister on 8 December, she has spoken out<\/a> against previous styles of German diplomacy, stating that \u2018eloquent silence is not a form of diplomacy in the long run, even if it has been seen that way by some in recent years.\u2019 She aims to establish a values-driven relationship with China based on \u2018dialogue and toughness<\/a>\u2019.<\/p>\n

This week, Baerbock made her first official trip to the US<\/a>, meeting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken. She stressed the importance of the German-American relations, stating that Europe has \u2018no partner stronger than the US\u2019.<\/p>\n

How much Germany\u2019s Indo-Pacific policies of the next four years end up reflecting those outlined in the coalition agreement remains to be seen. If Scholz\u2019s SPD could govern alone, we would likely witness a continuity of Merkel\u2019s policy in the region. A significant deciding factor will be how much room Scholz will grant Baerbock to implement her own policies. If she is able to develop freely in the role, then Beijing can expect some difficult years ahead with Berlin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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