{"id":69783,"date":"2022-01-14T06:00:31","date_gmt":"2022-01-13T19:00:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=69783"},"modified":"2022-01-13T16:04:45","modified_gmt":"2022-01-13T05:04:45","slug":"editors-picks-for-2021-military-coup-could-cruel-chinas-plans-for-mining-in-guinea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/editors-picks-for-2021-military-coup-could-cruel-chinas-plans-for-mining-in-guinea\/","title":{"rendered":"Editors\u2019 picks for 2021: \u2018Military coup could cruel China\u2019s plans for mining in Guinea\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Originally published 16 September 2021.<\/em><\/p>\n

On 5 September, Guinea\u2019s special forces took control of the country, detaining the president, Alpha Conde, and suspending the constitution. Citing endemic corruption, human rights abuses and poverty, coup leader Lieutenant Colonel Mamady Doumbouya\u00a0announced<\/a>\u00a0the next day that a new administration of \u2018national union\u2019 would be formed in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n

During a scheduled press conference that day, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said that\u00a0Beijing was closely following<\/a>\u00a0developments and that it opposed the military unit\u2019s actions and called for the president\u2019s \u2018immediate release\u2019. What\u2019s striking is Beijing\u2019s break with its posture of \u2018non-interference\u2019, issuing such strong statements on a country\u2019s domestic politics. In Guinea\u2019s particular case, however, there are good reasons for China to pay close attention to political developments there.<\/p>\n

The first is the extent to which Guinea\u2019s coup impacts China\u2019s long-term strategy to diversify its iron ore suppliers. Part of that strategy has involved turning to Africa. With two of Beijing\u2019s top 15 suppliers\u2014South Africa and Mauritania\u2014already in Africa, Chinese companies\u00a0are currently studying reserves<\/a>\u00a0in Algeria, Cameroon, Republic of Congo, Liberia, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Gabon, Nigeria and Madagascar.<\/p>\n

However, Guinea is unique. A mineral-rich country, its 100-kilometre-long Simandou mountain range holds an\u00a0estimated 8.6 billion tonnes<\/a>\u00a0of iron ore graded at more than 65.5%, seen to be one of the world\u2019s last untapped high-grade reserves. The Guinean government had leveraged Simandou\u2019s potential for Chinese investment in a major 650-kilometre railway project, a deep-water port and related facilities as part of China\u2019s Belt and Road Initiative.<\/p>\n

Thus far, Beijing has been reluctant to bring Australian iron ore imports into its campaign of economic coercion against Australia, in which the beef, barley, lobsters and wine industries have been badly hit. While some analysts say\u00a0Guinea represents<\/a>\u00a0\u2018one of the best medium- to long-term solutions to reduce dependency\u2019 on Australian iron ore and others caution it\u2019s\u00a0not big enough to free China<\/a>\u00a0from its reliance on Australian supply, Guinea\u2019s reserves carry the potential to give Beijing some leverage.<\/p>\n

Guinea\u2019s potential still depends on a few factors. For one, it\u2019s not clear that the coup leaders and interim administration will honour agreements signed with Chinese companies under the previous government. One such agreement, signed between the Conde administration and the SMB-Winning consortium in\u00a0June last year<\/a>, allows the Chinese\u2013Singaporean\u2013Guinean group to acquire the mining rights to two blocks in the north of Simandou worth roughly $19 billion.<\/p>\n

Plans to develop Simandou have\u00a0stalled over the past two decades<\/a>\u00a0due to corruption and fluctuating levels of interest, despite the involvement of a number of mining companies and investors (Rio Tinto was the first foreign investor given a licence to explore in 1997). If China is prepared to double down on Simandou, it will have to pay up to $20 billion over the next five years to develop the infrastructure and mine.\u00a0As one analyst noted<\/a>, \u2018in these tenuous times China appears ready to make that investment\u2019.<\/p>\n

Domestic factors in China like\u00a0cuts to steel production<\/a>, restrictions on pollution and the\u00a0precarious financial situation<\/a>\u00a0of large property developers will also shape Chinese purchases of Australian iron ore. The coup adds greater uncertainty for now to Beijing\u2019s plans.<\/p>\n

In addition to iron ore, China is also worrying about disruption to its supply of aluminium. As the world\u2019s second largest supplier of bauxite, Guinea meets 55% of\u00a0China\u2019s demand<\/a>\u00a0for it. With fears that the political turmoil could disrupt supply, the price of aluminium hit a\u00a010-year high<\/a>\u00a0on the day after the coup. For now, mining companies are exempt from Guinea\u2019s nationwide curfew; however, the status of operations on the ground remains unclear. Some operators said\u00a0it was business as usual<\/a>, while other companies did not confirm. If that situation changes, Canberra and Jakarta could benefit. Together with Guinea, Australia and Indonesia comprise 99% of China\u2019s bauxite purchases.<\/p>\n

With those key commodities in mind, there are legitimate concerns in China about Guinea\u2019s future economic and political stability. While there has so far been no resistance from other army units, including the presidential guard, risks remain. A Chinese official with the economic and commercial office of the Chinese embassy in Guinea\u00a0warned of several factors<\/a>\u00a0including a general economic slowdown. While Conde\u2019s removal has been celebrated by some Guineans, if coup leaders are unable to satisfy both his supporters and opposition camps, the risk of public unrest remains. Violence erupted and 21 people\u00a0were killed<\/a>\u00a0after last year\u2019s presidential election in October. Shops were closed, and internet and telephone networks\u00a0severely disrupted or shut down for a few days<\/a>.<\/p>\n

China has called for the president\u2019s release, but that would do little to address the waning public confidence in Guinea\u2019s political system. The country\u2019s democracy was already under siege before the coup. Last year\u2019s legislative election and constitutional referendum were postponed for two weeks after \u200b\u200bthe Organisation internationale de la Francophonie, an organisation of French-speaking governments,\u00a0raised concerns<\/a>\u00a0about 2.49 million \u2018problematic\u2019 entries on the electoral roll.<\/p>\n

But Guinean public support for the ousting of the president should not be thought of as support for military rule. Memories of brutal periods of military intervention run deep. In September 2009, soldiers killed 157 unarmed coup protesters in a stadium,\u00a0leaving 1,253 wounded<\/a>, with\u00a0109 women raped or sexually abused<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Chinese state media network CGTN\u00a0aired the statement<\/a>\u00a0of a Guinean government spokesperson who was \u2018worried\u2019 about bilateral ties with China, calling on \u2018everybody to work together to save this cooperation\u2019, particularly on current and future projects. And yet, despite its massive and concerted investment in infrastructure, emerging markets and even peacekeeping across the African continent, it seems there are few levers Beijing can pull in order to substantially influence political and military actors on the ground. Despite being \u2018all in\u2019 on Conde as a means of\u00a0guaranteeing access to commodities<\/a>, Beijing will have to invest anew in keeping Guinea\u2019s new powerbrokers on side.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Originally published 16 September 2021. On 5 September, Guinea\u2019s special forces took control of the country, detaining the president, Alpha Conde, and suspending the constitution. Citing endemic corruption, human rights abuses and poverty, coup leader …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":67254,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[177,52,2746,460],"class_list":["post-69783","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-africa","tag-china","tag-iron-ore","tag-mining"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEditors\u2019 picks for 2021: \u2018Military coup could cruel China\u2019s plans for mining in Guinea\u2019 | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/editors-picks-for-2021-military-coup-could-cruel-chinas-plans-for-mining-in-guinea\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Editors\u2019 picks for 2021: \u2018Military coup could cruel China\u2019s plans for mining in Guinea\u2019 | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Originally published 16 September 2021. 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