{"id":69994,"date":"2022-01-25T14:30:23","date_gmt":"2022-01-25T03:30:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=69994"},"modified":"2022-03-10T13:23:39","modified_gmt":"2022-03-10T02:23:39","slug":"theres-a-bear-out-there-germany-russia-and-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/theres-a-bear-out-there-germany-russia-and-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"There\u2019s a bear out there: Germany, Russia and Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The new German government\u2019s response to the evolving situation between Russia and Ukraine has been both underwhelming and complicated.<\/p>\n

Along with responding to the recent spike in Covid-19, peaking at well over 100,000 new cases a day, managing the Ukraine crisis has been a serious test of how Chancellor Olaf Scholz\u2019s three-way coalition government\u2014between his Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens (with Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock as co-leader) and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), led by Finance Minister Christian Lindner\u2014functions. The other key player on the Ukraine issue is the defence minister, the SPD\u2019s Christine Lambrecht.<\/p>\n

The jury is still out but the early indications are not promising. Germany, and Scholz himself, have been criticised for being too passive and not more strongly supporting Western positions on Ukraine. The chancellor\u2019s public comments have been weaker than fellow NATO and European leaders. It\u2019s hard to escape the conclusion that Scholz prefers to leave the main running to his foreign and defence ministers. He also doesn\u2019t want to jeopardise Germany\u2019s economic relationship with Russia, especially as a source of energy. Germany is therefore very wary about the possible imposition of sanctions on Russia.<\/p>\n

So, despite the evident energetic activity of Baerbock and Lambrecht (strong public comments and meetings with the key players, including in Moscow), the Scholz government has taken a minimalist position on the Ukraine crisis. It wants a wider EU role in the crisis and has strongly advocated negotiations, possibly to be chaired or facilitated by Germany and France, rather than just leaving things in the hands of the United States and Russia.<\/p>\n

It has categorically ruled out supplying military personnel or German-made or -supplied equipment to Ukraine, including from third countries such as the Baltic states. It argues that supplying military personnel or equipment to a potential war zone just makes things worse. To use Lambrecht\u2019s words, this would not \u2018currently be helpful\u2019. It has instead announced that it will send a fully equipped field hospital (with associated training) to Ukraine in February. That\u2019s about as low-key a contribution as Germany could make.<\/p>\n

Needless to say, Ukraine has been forthright, in Kyiv and through its ambassador in Berlin, in rejecting the German position out of hand, arguing that it desperately needs \u2018defensive\u2019 military equipment from Germany. The Ukrainian ambassador called publicly for an \u2018immediate rethink\u2019 of the German decision, noting that Ukraine needed \u2018100,000 helmets and body armour\u2019. Lambrecht has ruled out this request.<\/p>\n

But the German government is sensitive about sounding too pro-Russian. The head of the German Navy, Vice Admiral Kay-Achim Sch\u00f6nbach, resigned from his position (perhaps having been leant on firmly by his minister) for comments made at a conference last week in New Delhi. The vice admiral told his audience that talk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine was \u2018nonsense\u2019, that all President Vladimir Putin wanted was \u2018respect and to be treated as an equal\u2019, adding \u2018my God, to give someone respect costs almost nothing\u2019. He reportedly said that the Crimea would never return to Ukraine and that Ukraine would never meet the criteria for NATO membership. Clearly, these were unwelcome and uncomfortable comments for the German government, especially coming from such a senior military leader.<\/p>\n

Germany\u2019s approach to possible sanctions against Russia, should it invade Ukraine, has also been very weak\u2014although imposing sanctions is not as easy as it sounds. The sanction most discussed in the context of Germany is closing or not proceeding (for now) with the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Taking action here would certainly be a substantial blow to Russia\u2019s gas exports and send a significant message of disapproval to the Russian leadership. The pipeline is finished and is awaiting regulatory approval at the European end. That is expected in a few months but isn\u2019t a decision for Germany alone, a further complication.<\/p>\n

The problem with the pipeline is that it bypasses a number of countries, most notably Ukraine, on its way from Russia to its biggest customers, especially Germany. So Russia could send more gas through Nord Stream 2, cutting off Ukraine and some others. This would be disastrous for Ukraine in particular.<\/p>\n

But handling the growing pressure on Germany to support sanctions against Nord Stream 2 will be a challenge for the new German government. Russia is a major supplier of energy to Germany, providing somewhere around 35\u201340% of its energy imports. It is highly dependent on Russia for its energy, not just for powering industry but also (in the middle of winter) for providing heating for German voters. The price of gas is already very high and it would go even higher if sanctions were imposed, so sanctions would be a major domestic issue for the Scholz government.<\/p>\n

Given the pressure, Scholz has had to concede that acting against the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is something that would need to be \u2018discussed\u2019 if Russia invaded Ukraine. But it\u2019s clear that he\u2019d prefer to avoid such a step.<\/p>\n

And the politics of the governing coalition are also a problem. The Greens, under Baerbock, support sanctions against Nord Stream 2. They would like to see the pipeline closed down now, for good, to reduce Germany\u2019s use of fossil fuels. Nord Stream 2 will lock Germany into gas supplies from Russia for decades to come.<\/p>\n

All of this is not necessarily new. Even under former chancellor Angela Merkel, Germany was under great pressure, not least from the US, not to proceed with Nord Stream 2, given that it would increase its energy dependence on Russia. And Germany has always been wary about sanctions in general.<\/p>\n

So while the Ukraine\u2013Russia problem is an unwelcome one for Scholz and his government, the German response so far has been a weak one, especially given the country\u2019s weight and importance globally. It\u2019s also a serious test for the new chancellor. Merkel\u2019s international status and experience meant she was able to speak directly to Putin. This she did, often. It would have been interesting to listen in on some of those conversations, particularly when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. Scholz has spoken to Putin but only by way of an introductory call last December. He certainly needs to become more active if he is to support Western positions on this new crisis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The new German government\u2019s response to the evolving situation between Russia and Ukraine has been both underwhelming and complicated. Along with responding to the recent spike in Covid-19, peaking at well over 100,000 new cases …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":579,"featured_media":69996,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[694,163,714,744],"class_list":["post-69994","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-germany","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-vladimir-putin","dinkus-russia-ukraine-war"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThere\u2019s a bear out there: Germany, Russia and Ukraine | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/theres-a-bear-out-there-germany-russia-and-ukraine\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"There\u2019s a bear out there: Germany, Russia and Ukraine | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The new German government\u2019s response to the evolving situation between Russia and Ukraine has been both underwhelming and complicated. 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