{"id":70152,"date":"2022-02-01T14:30:57","date_gmt":"2022-02-01T03:30:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=70152"},"modified":"2022-02-01T13:59:11","modified_gmt":"2022-02-01T02:59:11","slug":"iran-and-the-us-both-need-a-nuclear-deal-but-it-must-be-win-win","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/iran-and-the-us-both-need-a-nuclear-deal-but-it-must-be-win-win\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran and the US both need a nuclear deal, but it must be win\u2013win"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Iran and the US need to strike an agreement to reinstate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, for their own and international interests. Without a deal, greater Middle East instability is inevitable and both sides, and the region, will be losers. If the will is there, a carefully shaped win\u2013win deal is within reach.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s ruling regime needs a deal to protect itself from potential threats, both internal and external. The US, particularly President Joe Biden, needs a deal for domestic political and international reasons. That deal must prevent nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, and sufficiently \u2018stabilise\u2019 the Middle East so that Washington can focus on higher priorities, namely, China and Russia.<\/p>\n

After months of tedious drawn-out negotiations in Vienna, developments during the past week suggest that both sides now want to close a deal as soon as practicable. The evidence for this is recent reporting<\/a> that Iran is now willing to enter into direct negotiations with the US, and the departure<\/a> last week of the deputy special envoy for Iran, Richard Nephew, an Iran hawk, from the US negotiating team.<\/p>\n

There are two imperatives for Iran to reach an early deal. The first is the threat from growing public restlessness due to Iran\u2019s economic disarray, and the related debilitating effects of Covid-19. The second is the outcome from potential military action by the US and\/or Israel if they conclude that Iran does intend to develop a nuclear weapon. Either, or both, could trigger reactions that would seriously challenge Iran\u2019s leadership, and the broader regime itself.<\/p>\n

The primary and punitive secondary effects of US sanctions imposed after President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA in 2018 have had a devastating effect on Iran\u2019s economy<\/a> and its people. There has been a significant drop in productivity; foreign trade and investment remain severely limited; Iran\u2019s international financial assets, estimated<\/a> at some US$115 billion, are mostly frozen; inflation is rampant, averaging<\/a> more than 40% in 2021; and unemployment in about a third of Iran\u2019s provinces has reached double digits. While there\u2019s been limited recovery in some areas, the future remains grim.<\/p>\n

The pandemic has contributed significantly to this disarray. Iran\u2019s Covid outbreak was the harshest in the Middle East, compounded in part by mismanagement, difficulties buying related medicines and medical equipment despite their exemption from sanctions, and in early 2020, the Trump administration\u2019s blockage<\/a> of a US$5 billion emergency loan from the International Monetary Fund sought by Tehran to meet Covid-related medical needs.<\/p>\n

Given Iran\u2019s economic outlook, President Ibrahim Raisi has chosen a \u2018resistance economy\u2019 pathway pending economic recovery. According to several sources, the majority of Iran\u2019s population are willing to tolerate this, at least in the short term, in the absence of an acceptable JCPOA-related solution. However, there\u2019s increasing widespread concern that Raisi\u2019s hardline conservative government could put ideology ahead of pragmatism in seeking solutions.<\/p>\n

Raisi\u2019s challenge is that, under Biden, an acceptable pragmatic solution is increasingly seen as within reach, and widespread popular dissention could erupt if it\u2019s not pursued. Raisi would want to avoid that.<\/p>\n

On proliferation, I don\u2019t believe the Raisi government, or that of his predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, is, or was, committed to developing a nuclear weapon. Iran\u2019s uranium enrichment program has been primarily about leveraging the US to rejoin the agreement. However, there should be no doubt among Iran\u2019s leaders that if the US and Israel conclude that Iran\u2019s intent is to acquire such a weapon, or the capability to make one, they will take whatever pre-emptive action is necessary, especially military action, to prevent it.<\/p>\n

There are two primary red lines Iran must not cross if it\u2019s to forestall that conclusion. The first is enrichment of uranium to 90%, or weapons grade. The break-out time from the current 60% level would be weeks only. The second is the development and testing of the compression assembly necessary to cause a nuclear explosion, and a missile or other tailored delivery system. Such development and testing would take at least a year. There\u2019s no known evidence that the Iranians have commenced such development; it would almost certainly be detected if they did.<\/p>\n

There are multiple scenarios about what military action might be taken if the red lines were crossed. I will posit one: joint targeting by the US and Israel that includes not only Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities but other military assets and infrastructure, especially missile sites, to mitigate Iran\u2019s ability to mount effective retaliatory action against the US, Israel or Gulf country supporters. Targets would be within Iran itself, as well as \u2018second-front\u2019 supporters and other pro-Iranian militia in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. I would expect targeting to include key members of Iran\u2019s leadership. Leadership change would be inevitable, and probably broader regime change.<\/p>\n

The turmoil within Iran, and regionally and globally, would be enormous, and potentially long-lasting. No one wants that: all would be losers. For Raisi, there can be no miscalculation of intent. The red lines are simply no-go; his priority must be an early, acceptable deal. Both sides also know that it must be win\u2013win.<\/p>\n

So, what is acceptable? Iran has put forward five basic conditions for US agreement: no additional non-nuclear-related conditions such as on missiles and \u2018malign\u2019 activities; the lifting of all JCPOA-related sanctions, including those badged under other pretexts; a commitment that those sanctions will not be reimposed under any pretext; an interim process to verify the lifting of all sanctions, including especially in the transport, technology, finance and energy industries; and a commitment that the US and other signatories will not unilaterally withdraw from the agreement in future.<\/p>\n

At a minimum, Biden must ensure that Tehran again reaffirms its JCPOA commitment<\/a> \u2018that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop or acquire any nuclear weapons\u2019, and that that commitment can be fully verified by JCPOA and International Atomic Energy Agency compliance arrangements.<\/p>\n

All indicators are that the US agrees with Iran\u2019s first demand, that there be no new conditions. However, it\u2019s most unlikely that the US and other signatories would agree to deny unilateral withdrawal in future. It is not an existing JCPOA condition, and the JCPOA is not a binding treaty. Also, Biden can\u2019t commit future US governments, particularly the Republicans. Similarly, Biden can\u2019t commit a future US government not to reimpose previously lifted sanctions, even if Iran fully complies with its obligations. What Biden can do is give his personal commitment to abide by the letter and spirit of the agreement, providing Raisi does the same. There\u2019s no reason why Raisi should not make that commitment, as did Rouhani.<\/p>\n

The most likely areas of serious contention are determining which sanctions imposed by Trump are JCPOA-related and agreeing on an interim verification process. There will be hard negotiating on both, and no doubt some serious sticking points. But a breakthrough is possible if the will is there. Ultimately, whatever formula is adopted will have to be underwritten by trust, despite the very heavy trust deficit on both sides.<\/p>\n

The best Biden can offer is another three years\u2014the remainder of his first, and possibly only, term. But a deal even on those terms would be better than none, would be credible as win\u2013win, and should therefore be acceptable to both sides.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Iran and the US need to strike an agreement to reinstate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, for their own and international interests. Without a deal, greater Middle East instability is inevitable and both sides, …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":205,"featured_media":70154,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[247,1883,2825,356,2070],"class_list":["post-70152","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-iran","tag-jcpoa","tag-joe-biden","tag-nuclear-weapons","tag-us-foreign-policy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIran and the US both need a nuclear deal, but it must be win\u2013win | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/iran-and-the-us-both-need-a-nuclear-deal-but-it-must-be-win-win\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Iran and the US both need a nuclear deal, but it must be win\u2013win | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Iran and the US need to strike an agreement to reinstate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, for their own and international interests. 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