{"id":70268,"date":"2022-02-04T15:15:45","date_gmt":"2022-02-04T04:15:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=70268"},"modified":"2022-02-04T15:15:45","modified_gmt":"2022-02-04T04:15:45","slug":"israel-on-edge-as-us-reports-progress-on-reviving-iran-nuclear-deal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/israel-on-edge-as-us-reports-progress-on-reviving-iran-nuclear-deal\/","title":{"rendered":"Israel on edge as US reports progress on reviving Iran nuclear deal"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Much speculation surrounds the negotiations in Vienna aimed at reviving the Iran nuclear deal (formally, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) as they near their final phase. The latest statements<\/a> emanating out of Washington signal a cautiously optimistic note. According to a senior US State Department official, the negotiations over the past month \u2018were among the most intensive that we\u2019ve had to date \u2026 [W]e made progress narrowing down the list of differences to just key priorities on all sides. And that\u2019s why now is the time for political decisions.\u2019<\/p>\n

The same official expressed a great sense of urgency that the negotiations be concluded soon since Iran is now very close to \u2018breakout time\u2019, meaning it has enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon. \u2018[W]e\u2019re talking about weeks, not months,\u2019 the official said.<\/p>\n

It appears that the technical issues have been sorted out and it\u2019s now up to the highest authorities in Tehran and Washington to determine how to narrow the gap in expectations on both sides and find a compromise formula. Washington\u2019s apprehensions about Iran reaching breakout point and the Iranian regime\u2019s need to reverse the perilous state of the country\u2019s economy indicate that a compromise agreement is likely to be hammered out soon, possibly in a few weeks\u2019 time.<\/p>\n

The prospect of such an outcome has Israeli leaders worried. Although Prime Minister Naftali Bennett\u2019s government has adopted a far less provocative posture towards President Joe Biden\u2019s administration than did Benjamin Netanyahu\u2019s government, its stance on the issue of a return to the JCPOA is pretty much the same. After initially soft-pedalling the issue, Bennett has clearly declared<\/a> that a revived JCPOA will not be acceptable to Israel:<\/p>\n

We must be honest in saying we have disagreements with the United States, our great friend. The way we see it, Iran is playing with a very weak hand and is bluffing. This lie must be exposed, and they must be given a choice\u2014survival of the regime or a continued race to nuclear capabilities, and they must not be given a gift of tens of billions \u2026 Either way, even if an agreement is signed, it will not bind us.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

One of the Israeli government\u2019s main concerns seems to be that once a deal is reached between Washington and Tehran, the US will seek to block the covert attacks on Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities that have become a staple of Israel\u2019s strategy of delaying if not preventing Iran\u2019s march towards acquiring a nuclear-weapons capability. According to a report<\/a> in the New York Times<\/em>, \u2018Israeli leaders say they want a guarantee from the Biden administration that Washington will not seek to restrain their sabotage campaign, even if a renewed nuclear deal is reached.\u2019<\/p>\n

This is unlikely to be acceptable to Washington because Tehran can use these attacks as a justification for backing out of the nuclear deal and resuming uranium enrichment and stockpiling activities that would be prevented by a revived JCPOA, thus negating the very purpose of such a deal.<\/p>\n

Moreover, the US and Israel differ in their assessment of the state of Iran\u2019s nuclear program. Washington believes that so long as Iran hasn\u2019t moved to develop a bomb it doesn\u2019t have a nuclear military program, since it suspended such efforts in 2003. The reimposition of JCPOA restrictions will act as a further deterrent for Tehran and prevent it from moving towards weaponisation. On the other hand, Israeli officials assert that Iran has continued a clandestine effort to acquire a nuclear capability and a return to JCPOA won\u2019t stop Tehran from reaching its goal.<\/p>\n

The divergence between American and Israeli assessments of Iran\u2019s nuclear capability and the utility of a nuclear deal in this context may be the major overt manifestation of their different approaches towards Iran. But the differences go much beyond that issue, according to<\/a> leading Iran analyst Trita Parsi:<\/p>\n

The answer lies in understanding that the details of the deal are not the real problem [between Israel and the United States]. It\u2019s rather the very idea of Washington and Tehran reaching\u00a0any<\/em>\u00a0agreement that not only prevents Iran from developing a bomb, but also reduces US\u2013Iran tensions and lifts sanctions that have prevented Iran from enhancing its regional power.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The fundamental reason for Israel\u2019s opposition to a revival of the JCPOA appears to be a fear that it may cause a shift in the balance of power in the region in favour of Iran. That that may well happen is borne out by the fact that just the revival of negotiations in Vienna has led to a change in the postures<\/a> of Iran\u2019s regional rivals, Saudi Arabia and the UAE in particular, towards Tehran. Both these countries had vociferously opposed the original nuclear deal but have now come around to endorsing its revival. They have sent other signals, including at high-level meetings, indicating their desire for a rapprochement with Iran.<\/p>\n

Such approaches have also been fuelled by Saudi Arabia\u2019s and the UAE\u2019s realisations from the time of the Trump administration that the US is unlikely to come to their aid in the event of a confrontation with Iran. The disorderly American retreat from Afghanistan has augmented the feeling among Iran\u2019s Arab rivals that Washington has downgraded the strategic importance of the region, making it imperative for them to find a modus vivendi with Iran.<\/p>\n

In this context, the likely impact of a revival of the JCPOA on Iran\u2019s major Arab neighbours has the potential to knock the bottom out of Israel\u2019s policy towards these countries, which has been based on the assumption of mutually shared antagonism towards Iran. The changing attitude of Iran\u2019s neighbours towards Tehran may be the first sign that the balance of power in the region and the calculus it was based on are undergoing a major transformation to the detriment of Israeli interests. This realisation seems to be driving Israel\u2019s strident opposition to the renewed nuclear deal more than the stated reason that it could legitimise rather than retard Iran\u2019s nuclear capability.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Much speculation surrounds the negotiations in Vienna aimed at reviving the Iran nuclear deal (formally, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) as they near their final phase. The latest statements emanating out of Washington signal …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":589,"featured_media":70272,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[247,240,1883,1361,2070],"class_list":["post-70268","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-jcpoa","tag-nuclear-deal","tag-us-foreign-policy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIsrael on edge as US reports progress on reviving Iran nuclear deal | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/israel-on-edge-as-us-reports-progress-on-reviving-iran-nuclear-deal\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Israel on edge as US reports progress on reviving Iran nuclear deal | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Much speculation surrounds the negotiations in Vienna aimed at reviving the Iran nuclear deal (formally, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) as they near their final phase. 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