{"id":70478,"date":"2022-02-15T14:30:28","date_gmt":"2022-02-15T03:30:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=70478"},"modified":"2022-02-15T13:57:47","modified_gmt":"2022-02-15T02:57:47","slug":"america-is-focusing-on-the-wrong-enemy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/america-is-focusing-on-the-wrong-enemy\/","title":{"rendered":"America is focusing on the wrong enemy"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Much of the democratic world would like the United States to remain the pre-eminent global power. But with the US apparently committed to strategic overreach<\/a>, that outcome risks becoming unlikely<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The problem with America\u2019s global leadership begins at home. Hyper-partisan politics and profound polarisation are eroding American democracy and impeding the pursuit of long-term objectives. In foreign policy, the partisan divide can be seen in perceptions of potential challengers to the US: according to a March 2021 poll<\/a>, Republicans are most concerned about China, while Democrats worry about Russia above all.<\/p>\n

This may explain why US President Joe Biden is treating a \u2018rogue\u2019 Russia as a peer competitor, when he should be focused on the challenge from America\u2019s actual peer, China. In comparison to Russia, China\u2019s population is about 10 times bigger, its economy is almost 10 times larger, and its military expenditure is around four times<\/a> greater. Not only is China more powerful than Russia, it genuinely seeks to supplant the US as the pre-eminent global power. By contrast, with its military build-up on Ukraine\u2019s borders, Russia is seeking to mitigate a perceived security threat in its neighbourhood.<\/p>\n

Hastening the decline of US global leadership is hardly the preserve of Democrats. A bipartisan parade of US leaders has failed to recognise that the post-Cold War unipolar world order, characterised by unchallenged US economic and military predominance, is long gone. The US squandered its \u2018unipolar moment<\/a>\u2019, especially by waging<\/a> an expensive and amorphous global war on terror, including several military interventions, and through its treatment of Russia.<\/p>\n

After its Cold War victory, the US essentially took an extended victory lap, pursuing strategic manoeuvres that flaunted its dominance. Notably, it sought to expand<\/a> NATO to Russia\u2019s backyard, but made little effort to bring Russia into the Western fold, as it had done with Germany and Japan after World War II. The souring of relations with the Kremlin contributed to Russia\u2019s eventual remilitarisation<\/a>.<\/p>\n

So, while the US remains the world\u2019s foremost military power, it has been stretched thin by the decisions and commitments it has made, in Europe and elsewhere, since 1991. This goes a long way towards explaining why the US has ruled out deploying its own troops to defend Ukraine today. What the US is offering Ukraine\u2014weapons and ammunition<\/a>\u2014cannot protect the country from Russia, which has an overwhelming military advantage over its neighbour.<\/p>\n

But US leaders made another fatal mistake since the Cold War: they aided<\/a> China\u2019s rise, helping to create the greatest rival their country has ever faced. Unfortunately, they have yet to learn from this. Instead, the US continues to dedicate insufficient attention and resources to an excessively wide array of global issues, from Russian revanchism and Chinese aggression to lesser threats in the Middle East and Africa, and on the Korean peninsula. And it continues inadvertently to bolster China\u2019s global influence, not least through its overuse of sanctions<\/a>.<\/p>\n

For example, by barring friends and allies from importing Iranian oil, two successive US administrations enabled China not only to secure oil at a hefty discount<\/a>, but also to become a top investor in\u2014and security partner<\/a> of\u2014the Islamic republic. US sanctions have similarly pushed<\/a> resource-rich Myanmar into China\u2019s arms. As Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, whose country has faced a US arms embargo over its ties to China, asked<\/a> last year, \u2018If I don\u2019t rely on China, who will I rely on?\u2019<\/p>\n

Russia has been asking itself the same question. Though Russia and China kept each other at arm\u2019s length for decades, US-led sanctions introduced after Russia\u2019s 2014 annexation of Crimea drove President Vladimir Putin to pursue a closer strategic partnership with China. The bilateral relationship is likely to deepen<\/a>, regardless of what happens in Ukraine. But the raft of harsh new sanctions the US has promised to implement in the event of a Russian invasion will accelerate this shift significantly, with China as the big winner.<\/p>\n

The heavy financial penalties<\/a> the US has planned\u2014including the \u2018nuclear option\u2019 of disconnecting Russian banks from the international SWIFT payments system<\/a>\u2014would turn China into Russia\u2019s banker, enabling it to reap vast profits and expand the international use of its currency. If Biden fulfilled his pledge<\/a> to block the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which is set to deliver Russian supplies directly to Germany via the Baltic Sea, China would gain greater access to Russian energy.<\/p>\n

In fact, by securing a commitment from Putin this month to a nearly tenfold<\/a> increase in Russian natural gas exports, China is building a safety net that could\u2014in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan\u2014withstand Western energy sanctions and even a blockade. China could also benefit militarily by demanding greater access to Russian military technology in exchange for its support.<\/p>\n

For the US, a strengthened Russia\u2013China axis is the worst possible outcome of the Ukraine crisis. The best outcome would be a compromise with Russia to ensure that it does not invade and possibly annex Ukraine. By enabling the US to avoid further entanglement in Europe, this would permit a more realistic balancing of key objectives\u2014especially checking Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific\u2014with available resources and capabilities.<\/p>\n

The future of the US-led international order will be decided in Asia, and China is currently doing everything in its power to ensure that order\u2019s demise. Already, China is powerful enough that it can host the Winter Olympics<\/a> even as it carries out a genocide<\/a> against Muslims in the Xinjiang region, with limited pushback. If the Biden administration does not recognise the true scale of the threat China poses, and adopt an appropriately targeted strategy soon, whatever window of opportunity for preserving US pre-eminence remains may well close.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Much of the democratic world would like the United States to remain the pre-eminent global power. But with the US apparently committed to strategic overreach, that outcome risks becoming unlikely. The problem with America\u2019s global …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":482,"featured_media":70488,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,772,163,31],"class_list":["post-70478","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-geopolitics","tag-russia","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAmerica is focusing on the wrong enemy | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/america-is-focusing-on-the-wrong-enemy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"America is focusing on the wrong enemy | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Much of the democratic world would like the United States to remain the pre-eminent global power. But with the US apparently committed to strategic overreach, that outcome risks becoming unlikely. The problem with America\u2019s global ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/america-is-focusing-on-the-wrong-enemy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-02-15T03:30:28+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-02-15T02:57:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/GettyImages-1238175215.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"674\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Brahma Chellaney\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Brahma Chellaney\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/america-is-focusing-on-the-wrong-enemy\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/GettyImages-1238175215.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/GettyImages-1238175215.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":674,\"caption\":\"TOPSHOT - Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Chinese President Xi Jinping pose for a photograph during their meeting in Beijing, on February 4, 2022. (Photo by Alexei Druzhinin \/ Sputnik \/ AFP) (Photo by ALEXEI DRUZHININ\/Sputnik\/AFP via Getty Images)\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/america-is-focusing-on-the-wrong-enemy\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/america-is-focusing-on-the-wrong-enemy\/\",\"name\":\"America is focusing on the wrong enemy | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/america-is-focusing-on-the-wrong-enemy\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2022-02-15T03:30:28+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-02-15T02:57:47+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/de93656772fd3940ede5d6ca24b86124\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/america-is-focusing-on-the-wrong-enemy\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/america-is-focusing-on-the-wrong-enemy\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/america-is-focusing-on-the-wrong-enemy\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"America is focusing on the wrong enemy\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/de93656772fd3940ede5d6ca24b86124\",\"name\":\"Brahma Chellaney\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/fd617a464df31dc4b7d841dc248c299d?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/fd617a464df31dc4b7d841dc248c299d?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Brahma Chellaney\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/brahma-chellaney\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"America is focusing on the wrong enemy | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/america-is-focusing-on-the-wrong-enemy\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"America is focusing on the wrong enemy | The Strategist","og_description":"Much of the democratic world would like the United States to remain the pre-eminent global power. But with the US apparently committed to strategic overreach, that outcome risks becoming unlikely. The problem with America\u2019s global ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/america-is-focusing-on-the-wrong-enemy\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2022-02-15T03:30:28+00:00","article_modified_time":"2022-02-15T02:57:47+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1024,"height":674,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/GettyImages-1238175215.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Brahma Chellaney","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Brahma Chellaney","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/america-is-focusing-on-the-wrong-enemy\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/GettyImages-1238175215.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/GettyImages-1238175215.jpg","width":1024,"height":674,"caption":"TOPSHOT - Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Chinese President Xi Jinping pose for a photograph during their meeting in Beijing, on February 4, 2022. (Photo by Alexei Druzhinin \/ Sputnik \/ AFP) (Photo by ALEXEI DRUZHININ\/Sputnik\/AFP via Getty Images)"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/america-is-focusing-on-the-wrong-enemy\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/america-is-focusing-on-the-wrong-enemy\/","name":"America is focusing on the wrong enemy | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/america-is-focusing-on-the-wrong-enemy\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2022-02-15T03:30:28+00:00","dateModified":"2022-02-15T02:57:47+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/de93656772fd3940ede5d6ca24b86124"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/america-is-focusing-on-the-wrong-enemy\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/america-is-focusing-on-the-wrong-enemy\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/america-is-focusing-on-the-wrong-enemy\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"America is focusing on the wrong enemy"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/de93656772fd3940ede5d6ca24b86124","name":"Brahma Chellaney","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/fd617a464df31dc4b7d841dc248c299d?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/fd617a464df31dc4b7d841dc248c299d?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Brahma Chellaney"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/brahma-chellaney\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70478"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/482"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70478"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70478\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":70480,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70478\/revisions\/70480"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/70488"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70478"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70478"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70478"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}